Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Milwaukee, WI

500 
WWUS53 KMKX 031706
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1206 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

WIC127-031800-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-260703T1800Z/
Walworth WI-
1206 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR WALWORTH COUNTY...

At 1206 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Darien, or
near Delavan, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Whitewater, Elkhorn, Delavan, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Williams Bay,
Genoa City, Walworth, Fontana-On-Geneva Lake, Sharon, Darien, Como,
Pell Lake, Potter Lake, Powers Lake, Burlington, Richmond,
Springfield, La Grange, and Millard.

People attending Elkhorn Fireworks  should seek safe shelter
immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4284 8878 4284 8831 4249 8831 4249 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 240DEG 39KT 4257 8872 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

HALBACH

204 
WWUS53 KMKX 031716
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1216 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

WIC127-031800-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-260703T1800Z/
Walworth WI-
1216 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR WALWORTH COUNTY...

At 1216 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Delavan,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhorn, Delavan, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Williams Bay, Genoa City,
Walworth, Fontana-On-Geneva Lake, Sharon, Darien, Como, Pell Lake,
Potter Lake, Powers Lake, Burlington, Richmond, Springfield, La
Grange, Abells Corners, and Allens Grove.

People attending Elkhorn Fireworks  should seek safe shelter
immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4273 8878 4284 8857 4284 8831 4249 8831
      4249 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 240DEG 39KT 4263 8858 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

HALBACH

680 
WWUS53 KMKX 031736
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

WIC127-031800-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-260703T1800Z/
Walworth WI-
1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR WALWORTH COUNTY...

At 1236 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near East Troy,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhorn, Delavan, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Williams Bay, Genoa City,
Richmond, Como, Pell Lake, Potter Lake, Powers Lake, Burlington,
Springfield, Abells Corners, Tibbets, Millard, Troy Center, and
Delavan Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 8869 4284 8857 4284 8831 4249 8831
      4249 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 240DEG 39KT 4274 8833 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

HALBACH

743 
WWUS53 KMKX 031741
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

WIC127-031751-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-260703T1800Z/
Walworth WI-
1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WALWORTH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southeastern Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 8869 4284 8857 4284 8831 4249 8831
      4249 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 240DEG 39KT 4277 8826 

$$

HALBACH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1043 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Our severe chance has increased for southeast WI and the
  timing is much earlier (now through 2 PM). A few severe storms
  with strong winds and hail are possible.

- Additional batches of showers and storms continue tonight
  through Sunday. Keep up with the forecast if planning to be
  outdoors.

- Trending quieter early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1043 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The thunderstorm complex that was over Iowa that was expected to
dissipate is actually holding together. This is bringing an area
of showers and thunderstorms into south central and southeast
WI (toward WI/IL border) through the next couple of hours. With
the morning sunshine in southeast WI, we have managed to get a
sliver of higher instability there. The latest RAP analysis is
showing +2000 j/kg and bulk shear is 35-40kt along the WI/IL
border. This is our chance for severe thunderstorms today. The
storms that are in northwest IL are expected to reach the
Kenosha area around 1 PM.

The big change for our overall forecast is that while we can
still see afternoon showers and thunderstorms, our severe
chances will be lower this afternoon due to all the morning
showers and cloud cover.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 200 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Today through Tonight:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Regional radar mosaics remain busy
tonight following an evening of strong to severe storms across
southern Wisconsin. Said storms laid down an elongated outflow
boundary, which currently stretches from the Chicago metro to
just south of the Des Moines, Iowa vicinity. Thanks to a
southwesterly low level jet in place regionally, ascent up &
over the outflow has allowed convection to blossom to the
north/cool side of the boundary from Iowa across northern
Illinois. Some of this activity could leak north into southern
Wisconsin through the remainder of the overnight hours,
particularly to the south of I-94 and US-18. Further to the west
over the Central Plains, additional widespread convection is
ongoing over Nebraska. While these storms will remain well west
of the area through tonight, high-res forecast guidance is
hinting at an affiliated remnant shortwave/MCV crossing the
region this afternoon. Whether this feature will be able to
trigger storm development will depend on air mass recovery in
the wake of predawn showers/storms regionally, with forecast
trends being monitored through the rest of this morning. In the
event storms were to form this afternoon, a few would be capable
of producing gusty straight line winds. Additional showers and
storms are possible during the predawn hours Saturday. With
clouds & areas of showers/storms around the region, temperatures
are expected to remain below heat headline thresholds today.

Rest of the Overnight: Will be monitoring convective trends
over Iowa and northern Illinois as storms regenerate over the
top of outflow boundaries laid down by earlier evening
convection. Expect that development will continue over these
regions through the remainder of the overnight hours given a
persistent southwesterly low level jet & attendant overrunning.
Whether activity manages to propagate further north/into
southern Wisconsin remains more uncertain, as the low level air
mass remains worked over in the wake of multiple batches of
convection last evening. Best convective potential will be
along/south of I-94 & US-18, where elevated instability values
remain a touch higher compared to further north. Not expecting
severe weather in the event convection makes it back into the
area, though heavy downpours would be possible. Have maintained
the existing Flood Watch over Sauk Co given antecedent wet
conditions & convective chances. If appreciable precip stays
south of the region through the rest of the overnight, watch
will be allowed to expire as scheduled at 7 AM.

This Afternoon & Evening: Forecast uncertainty increases as a
remnant shortwave/MCV from storms currently over the Missouri
Basin moves across the region. If sufficient destabilization can
occur in advance of the feature, it could help trigger
scattered storm development during the ~12-8 PM timeframe, with
a few severe storms with gusty winds and hail possible. If,
however, morning convection over Iowa/Illinois/southern
Wisconsin holds better instability to the south of the region,
storm coverage would be minimal. Will thus be monitoring trends
closely, as what storms do through the morning hours will go a
long way in determining what the radar looks like come
afternoon. Will continue to provide forecast updates through the
morning.

Tonight: Will be watching for more thunderstorms during the
predawn hours as one or multiple clusters of convection move
into the Mississippi Valley from the Plains. Expect that
convective intensities will be waning as these storms approach,
likely limiting severe potential. Will continue to monitor
trends and provide updates through today.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 200 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Independence Day through Wednesday:

The upper ridge over the eastern CONUS will gradually diminish
as mid level westerlies win out as they head east of the Great
Lakes region Sunday and Monday. Unfortunately, our region will
remain in a battle zone of sorts for Independence Day into
Sunday. From a large scale pattern perspective, it is prudent to
expect an convective system or two. However the timing and
details will be heavily determined by how the mesoscale is
altered by convective behavior and remnant boundaries Friday and
Friday night. At this time, from a large scale pattern
perspective, it appears the better rain chances shift east of
the area on Sunday, but this will have to be closely monitored
day to day.

Early next week, ensemble consensus is for a mid level ridge to
build over the Rockies, nudging our upper level pattern into
northwest flow. This will deliver typical July conditions with
lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. Small ripples from time to
time are to be expected in this northwest flow pattern, though
timing these individual waves is a futile exercise. Bottom line,
there will be a good amount of dry time, and intermittent
chances for showers/storms with any ripples.

Gagan

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 625 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Current area of showers and storms west of the area should have
a tough time holding together as it tries to shift east into
the morning hours. May see a few showers or storms make it to
Madison or Janesville terminals later this morning or midday,
before weakening. Otherwise, middle level clouds may be
scattered to broken at times today, depending on how long the
precipitation to the west keeps going. Winds should remain
fairly light today into tonight.

This will help determine if more showers and storms develop
this afternoon and early evening across the area. There is a
decent amount of uncertainty on timing and areal coverage of any
showers or storms, so kept PROB03 mentions going in the TAFs
for all terminals this afternoon into early evening. Stronger
storms could bring strong winds and hail.

There may be more chances for showers and storms at times
tonight, with the better chances toward the Illinois border.
Again, kept PROB30 mentions going in TAFs, though Janesville and
Kenosha may see prevailing showers or storms after midnight
tonight.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 200 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

High pressure around 1020 mb will remain parked over the Ohio
Valley and Appalachian Mountains into tonight. Meanwhile, a
trough of low pressure will remain over the Great Plains through
tonight. A weak low pressure area may then organize and slowly
move across Wisconsin and Lake Michigan from Saturday afternoon
into Sunday, or pass farther south across Illinois into the Ohio
Valley. Modest south to southwest winds will become lighter
today. Light to modest winds are then forecast for the weekend,
but with some uncertainty on wind direction given low confidence
in the track of the low. A stormy period is expected for
central and southern Lake Michigan through the weekend. Patchy
marine fog will be possible at times as warm and humid air flows
over the relatively cooler lake.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
638 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-041145-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
638 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chances for thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon with severe
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms throughout the
holiday weekend. Some strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall
may occur at times, though confidence remains low with the timing
of each round of storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times this weekend.

LMZ643>646-041145-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
638 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chances for thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon with severe
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms throughout the
holiday weekend. Some strong to severe storms may occur at times,
though confidence remains low with the timing of each round of
storms.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-041145-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
638 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Patchy dense fog may occur over northern portions of the lake.

Chances for thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon with severe
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Areas of dense fog may occur at times into the holiday weekend,
due to the very warm and humid airmass over the colder waters of
Lake Michigan.

There are chances for thunderstorms across the southern half of
the lake over the holiday weekend. Some strong to severe storms
may occur at times, though confidence remains low with the timing
of each round of storms.

MRC

www.weather.gov/mkx