Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
159 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for portions of
  south central and southeast WI into this evening. Additional
  heat headlines are not anticipated the remainder of this week.

- Developing line of storms over ne IA is expected to move
  across srn WI late this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds
  is the main threat with a low potential for QLCS tornadoes.

- Flood Watch for Sauk County until 7 AM CDT Fri for a flash
  flood potential given the 2 to 3 inches of accumulation today,
  and expected thunderstorms from late this afternoon through
  tnt.

- Showers and thunderstorms chances of 50-80 percent continue
  for Fri-Sat but with lessening severe thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

The developing MCS over ne IA is expected to move ewd across srn
WI late this afternoon and evening. MLCAPE may rebound to 2000
J/KG as far north of Madison and Milwaukee with lower amounts
and higher MLCIN to the north. Wly 0-3 KM shear around 30 kts is
expected yielding the potential for mesovortex generation and
associated damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Afterward,
additional showers and storms can be expected as a swly low
level jet around 30 kts develops ahead of a shortwave trough
moving from nrn IA and srn MN across WI. This will likely yield
more of heavy rain threat. Given the 2-3 inches of rain today
over Sauk County, issued a Flood Watch for potential flash flooding
but lesser chances elsewhere due to drier antecedent conditions.

Another shortwave trough will approach from MN Fri AM and drift
across nrn and central WI during the day. CAMs also have a MCS
with this feature but many weaken it as it moves into srn WI.
Given the morning timing and the better instability shifting the
the south, this is plausible. Rain chances of 50-80 percent
over south central WI and 50 percent over se WI. Some
development in the afternoon is possible.

Additional shortwave troughs are expected for the weekend but
with lesser instability and near normal temperatures each day.
Rain chances of 60-80 percent on Sat falling to 20-40 percent
for Sun.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Monday through Thursday:

Weak nwly flow aloft and high 500 mb heights will prevail next
week. Warm and humid conditions typical of July are forecast.
Weak shortwave troughs within the flow will bring 20-40 percent
chances of showers and storms at times.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Sct-bkn035-045 cumlus will develop late this afternoon ahead of
a line of storms approaching from ne IA. This line of storms
will move east across srn WI late this afternoon and evening and
possibly be followed by additional storms during the night. AT
least scattered showers and storms are then forecast for Fri. Patchy
MVFR Cigs and Vsbys can be expected in the wake of storms at times.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Large high pressure around 30.1 inches will remain parked over
the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains into Friday night.
Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will remain over the Great
Plains today into Friday night. A weak low pressure area may then
organize and slowly move across Wisconsin and Lake Michigan from
Saturday afternoon into Sunday, or pass farther south across
Illinois into the Ohio Valley. Modest south to southwest winds
will persist today becoming a bit lighter tonight and Friday.
Light to modest winds are then forecast for the weekend, but with
some uncertainty on wind direction given low confidence in the
track of the low. A stormy period is expected for central and
southern Lake Michigan from tonight into the weekend. Patchy
marine fog will be possible at times as warm and humid air flows
over the relatively cooler lake.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch...WIZ056 until 7 AM Friday.
LM...None.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-031745-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect portions of south
central and southeastern Wisconsin until this evening for heat
index values around 95 to 100 degrees.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Sauk County through Friday morning.
Flash Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

Chances for thunderstorms this evening and overnight, with all
hazards possible. Storms will weaken late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms throughout the
holiday weekend. Some strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall
may occur at times, though confidence remains low with the timing
of each round of storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times into the weekend.

LMZ643>646-031745-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Chances for thunderstorms this evening and overnight, with all
hazards possible. Storms will weaken late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms throughout the
holiday weekend. Some strong to severe storms may occur at times,
though confidence remains low with the timing of each round of
storms.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-031745-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Patchy dense fog may occur over northern portions of the lake.

Chances for thunderstorms this evening and overnight, with all
hazards possible. Storms will weaken late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Areas of dense fog may occur at times into the holiday weekend,
due to the very warm and humid airmass over the colder waters of
Lake Michigan.

There are chances for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening
for the whole lake, and across the southern half of the lake over
the holiday weekend. Some strong to severe storms may occur at
times, though confidence remains low with the timing of each round
of storms.

www.weather.gov/mkx

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