Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather potential increasing across all of southern
  Wisconsin this afternoon (peak 1-7 PM). All severe weather
  hazards are possible, with some potential for significant
  damaging wind gusts (60-80 MPH). Move indoors to safe shelter
  immediately if a warning is issued for your area this
  afternoon.

- A High Swim Risk is in effect from mid afternoon through late
  tonight. High waves and dangerous currents will be likely,
  and swimming is not advised at Sheboygan and Ozaukee beaches.

- Multiple rounds of storms continue tonight and Thursday.
  Severe thunderstorms are likely at times.

- Warm and humid conditions expected today and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

...Severe Weather Potential Increasing This Afternoon...

Rapid thunderstorm development is ongoing over eastern Iowa this
afternoon beneath an approaching MCV. Thunderstorm development
is ongoing within a very unstable environment with sufficient
overlapping effective shear values. Very unstable conditions are
in place downstream across southern Wisconsin, where surface
temperatures have soared into the mid-upper 80s with dew points
in the 70s. The unstable conditions will allow for continuation
of the Iowa storms into southern Wisconsin through the afternoon
hours, with increasing effective shear values allowing for
continued maintenance of storms at severe levels. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for all of southern
Wisconsin until 7 PM ahead of this approaching activity.

A linear convective mode affiliated with the encroaching storms
will support damaging straight line winds as the predominant
severe weather hazard through this afternoon. Some wind gusts
could be significant (70+ MPH) given an unstable boundary layer
susceptible to downward transfers of higher momentum from aloft.
Line-embedded tornadoes are also possible, particularly in
northeasterly line surges & any mergers with any storm
development managing to occur ahead of the line. Torrential
downpours will also accompany storms, though progressive storm
motions should limit widespread flooding potential in this
initial round of storms. Move indoors and to immediate safe
shelter if a warning is issued for your area this afternoon.

Second disturbance is then forecast to pivot through the area
this evening, bringing additional convective potential along
with it. Peak potential for any storm redevelopment would be
between 7 PM and 1 AM. Coverage & severity of storms will be
heavily influenced by activity this afternoon, with current
trends suggesting that available instability will be heavily
depleted, leaving the intensity and coverage of storms in
question. Will be monitoring trends closely through this
afternoon and evening. Regardless of severity levels, any
redeveloping storms would be capable of producing additional
torrential downpours, which could lead to pockets of flooding in
any locations that are hit this afternoon. Given lower
confidence in preferred training corridors, have held off on any
Flood Watches in this forecast, but will be watching trends
closely through this evening/tonight.

Will then be turning attention to tomorrow's severe potential
following the conclusion of this evening's activity. As a bottom
line, another round of widespread severe storm development is
anticipated, with the most favored locations for storms being
along and south of a boundary laid down by morning
showers/storms. Peak timing for storms will be between 2 to 8
PM. All severe hazards will be possible. Will be monitoring
trends and providing additional details through this evening and
tonight. Stay tuned to the forecast.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

A shortwave trough sitting over WI and a surface low pressure
system are expected to move northeast over Michigan and Ontario,
bringing a surface high to southern WI late Friday into early
Saturday morning. Drier conditions are expected Friday with temperatures
down into the 70s and humidity significantly decreasing.

Throughout Saturday, the potential for precipitation increases in
the afternoon (40-50%) into the evening (50-60%) as the shortwave
trough settles into WI alongside a cold front. Precipitable water
values of around 1.3" increase this potential. Temperatures are
expected to increase alongside humidity throughout the day into
the evening.

Primarily dry and cooler conditions Sunday through Monday as
surface pressure increases across the region and the shortwave
trough begins to move to the east. Shower/storm chances increase
into Tuesday (20-30%) as the shortwave trough begins to sink back
into WI and a surface low enters from the west. A similar chance
for precipitation for later Wednesday (20-30%) as the low pressure
system moves west, with an approaching high over the Plains.

Zawlocki

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Strong to severe storm potential over southern WI moving from the
southwest to northeast Wednesday afternoon into early evening
could produce many hazards, including large hail, damaging winds
(gusts up to 80 mph), and tornadoes. There is a continued chance
for showers/storms into Wednesday evening, with the primary threat
becoming heavy rainfall. VFR conditions across southern WI once
the storms pass Wednesday evening, shifting to MVFR overnight
with southwesterly winds across the region.

The potential for precipitation decreases overnight Wednesday
into early Thursday, bringing the potential for fog across
southern WI, primarily over the northern half of Lake Michigan.
IFR conditions are expected with winds shifting southeasterly
Thursday morning ahead of showers/storms, with potential for
gusty conditions. IFR conditions expected Thursday afternoon with
the potential for showers/storms, with some becoming severe.

Zawlocki

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Showers/storms are expected to move east over Lake Michigan
Wednesday night, with a high potential for precipitation in the
southern half late Wednesday. Increasing fog potential over the
northern half of Lake Michigan Wednesday night, with increasing
potential over the entire lake early Thursday. Continued
southerly winds across Lake Michigan Wednesday night with
potential for gusty conditions.

A cold front/low pressure system is expected to move in Thursday
afternoon (29.76 inches), increasing the potential for
precipitation Thursday, with the chance of some storms becoming
severe. Winds are expected to shift southeasterly ahead of
precipitation, then to Westerly Friday.

Zawlocki

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060...4 PM Wednesday to 4
     AM Thursday.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 until 7 PM Wednesday.

     Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645 until 1 PM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...4 PM Wednesday to 1 AM
     Thursday.

     Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874
     until 2 PM Wednesday.

&&

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
121 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-110630-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
121 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated storms are possible early to mid-morning today, with
large hail a possibility if storms form. Confidence is on the low
end with this storm potential.

Dense fog is possible in the east towards Lake Michigan into mid-
morning today.

A High Swim Risk is in effect mid afternoon today into the
evening. High waves and dangerous currents will be likely, and
swimming is not advised at Sheboygan and Ozaukee beaches.

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
with all hazards possible.

Heat indices in the mid to upper 90s are possible today,
particularly across southeast Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed today and Thursday.

LMZ643>646-110630-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
121 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible today, especially this afternoon and
evening when storms may reach severe levels.

Areas of dense fog will continue through at least mid-morning
today.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect north of North Point Light
from mid-afternoon through the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday.

Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels again on
Thursday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-110630-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
121 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible today, especially this afternoon and
evening when storms may reach severe levels.

Areas of dense fog will continue through at least mid-morning
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
212 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Monticello              42.75N 89.59W
06/10/2026                   Green              WI   Trained Spotter

            Report of large tree branch down on home,
            time estimated from radar.

&&

BHS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
222 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 N Shirland            42.53N 89.20W
06/10/2026  E85 MPH          Rock               WI   Trained Spotter

            85 MPH wind gust estimated from home
            instrumentation.

&&

AQ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
223 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 W Edgerton            42.83N 89.14W
06/10/2026  E80 MPH          Rock               WI   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter estimates 80 MPH wind gusts.

&&

AQ