Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
705 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A backdoor cold front will continue to move southwestward into
  the area into early evening, accompanied by a broken line of
  showers and storms. Any storm toward northwest parts of the
  area may produce strong winds and hail. These showers and
  storms should gradually weaken by middle to late evening as
  they sag southward.

- A High Swim Risk and Beach Hazard Statement is in effect
  tonight into early Thursday afternoon, due to dangerous
  currents from onshore winds and high waves.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight into early
  Thursday afternoon, due to persistent northeast winds and
  high waves.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 705 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A broken line of showers and storms will continue to sag
southward into northern portions of the area into this evening,
along a backdoor cold front. There may be strong winds and hail
with any storms in northwest parts of the area, where mean layer
CAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg and deep layer bulk shear of 25
to 30 knots reside. This activity should gradually weaken by
middle to late evening as it sags further southward, as
instability weakens with the loss of daytime heating.

After the showers and storms end and the backdoor cold front
shifts southwest of the area, northeast winds will steadily
increase by later this evening and overnight, lingering into
Thursday. This will bring clearing skies overnight into
Thursday, as the high pressure system shifts southward into the
region. Lows tonight should drop into the lower to middle 50s,
with highs Thursday in the 70s inland with 60s closer to Lake
Michigan.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 318 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

A backdoor cold front will sag southwestward through the region
between 5 PM and 9 PM CDT, with isolated to scattered rain and
storms along the front during this time frame. The frontal
boundary will become enhanced by the cold Lake Michigan waters,
allowing it to press inland rapidly this evening into CAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg. There is a potential for low-level CIN to build
into the area ahead of the front as temperatures begin to cool
this evening, which could inhibit shower and storm development.
That being said, almost all meso models do show a cluster of
storms developing along the front, and a few of these have
already begun to develop in northern Wisconsin. If the front
moves faster than the developing CIN, we likely see a broken
line of gusty showers moving northeast to southwest. A few cells
that grow tall enough may become capable of producing damaging
winds, but the potential is low at this time. SPC has a marginal
risk across just central Wisconsin for this potential.

Any lingering thunderstorms will taper off into the overnight
hours, becoming light showers then ending completely by
midnight. Northeasterly winds are expected behind the front,
gusting 20-25 mph and bringing lows in the mid to low 50s. A
Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for rising waves and
dangerous currents along the Lake Michigan shoreline tonight
into Thursday morning. Stay out of the water, and away from
dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls!

Dry conditions continue through Thursday, with northeasterly
winds expected throughout the day. Gusts to 20 mph will linger
near Lake Michigan into far southern Wisconsin, with all winds
gradually diminishing overnight. With northeast winds off the
lake, expecting lower high temperatures in the 70s to perhaps
80 degrees inland, and in the mid to upper 60s east of the
Kettle Moraine. Overnight Thursday, lows in the upper 40s are
expected.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 318 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

High pressure will keep winds light and allow temperatures to
rise back into the 80s in most places on Friday, with highs in
the low 70s along the Lake Michigan shoreline as a lake breeze
develops in the afternoon hours. Friday night, an additional
backdoor cold front will sweep southwestward, bringing a very
low chance of showers (NAM with a known moisture bias being the
core model showing shower development) to central Wisconsin
overnight. Expect lows in the mid 50s.

Saturday, light easterly winds will keep southeastern Wisconsin
in the 70s, and will allow southwestern Wisconsin to rise into
the 80s. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes and allow
for light winds and plenty of cooling overnight into the low 50s
to upper 40s. Sunday will see highs similar to Saturday as high
pressure lingers across the region, with continued dry
conditions through the day. As high pressure migrates southward,
an additional back door cold front will bring the next low
chances (~15%) for showers and storms Sunday night into Monday
morning. An isolated shower or two may linger into Monday.

Tuesday, low pressure develops in the central High Plains and
brings in southeasterly winds by Wednesday, bringing
temperatures back up into the 80s on Wednesday. Chances for rain
and storms may develop again into Wednesday as low pressure
begins to eject.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 705 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A broken line of showers and storms will continue to sag
southward into northern portions of the area into this evening,
along a backdoor cold front. There may be strong winds and hail
with any storms northwest of Madison. This activity should
gradually weaken by middle to late evening as it sags further
southward, as instability weakens with the loss of daytime
heating.

Added PROB30 groups for Sheboygan and Madison for a thunderstorm
with briefly reduced visibility until middle evening, though
not sure if these sites will be affected. Kept mention out of
rest of terminals for now, as not confident this precipitation
will reach the rest of the area.

After the showers and storms end and the backdoor cold front
shifts southwest of the area, northeast winds will steadily
increase by later this evening and overnight, lingering into
Thursday. This will bring clearing skies overnight into
Thursday, as the high pressure system shifts southward into the
region.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 318 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

High pressure around 30.3 inches will continue to build
southward into the Great Lakes this evening through tonight,
bringing a cold front southward through tonight. Behind this
front, gusty northerly winds will produce waves and winds
hazardous to small craft in nearshore waters, with gusts around
25 kt expected. Winds will gradually diminish through Thursday,
with hazardous conditions diminishing midday. High pressure
remains in place through the weekend, with a few additional weak
cold fronts bringing brisk northeasterly winds Friday night and
Sunday night. High pressure generally remains in place through
early next week, with light and variable winds expected.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 1 PM Thursday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 PM
     Thursday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
709 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-290015-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
709 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A broken line of showers and storms will continue to sag southward
into this evening in northern portions of the area. Any storm
northwest of Madison may produce strong winds and hail. The storms
should weaken by middle to late evening.

There is a high swim risk tonight for Lake Michigan beaches in
Sheboygan, Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties. Life
threatening waves and currents are expected. Stay out of the
water, and away from dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a high swim risk into midday Thursday for Lake Michigan
beaches in Sheboygan, Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha
Counties. Life threatening waves and currents are expected. Stay
out of the water, and away from dangerous areas like piers and
breakwalls.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-290015-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
709 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few thunderstorms may occur into this evening, mainly north of
North Point Lighthouse.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight for brisk north
northeast winds and high waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into midday Thursday
due to persistent northeast winds and high waves.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-290015-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
709 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few thunderstorms may occur into this evening over the central
one third of Lake Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx

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