Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Milwaukee, WI

706 
WGUS73 KMKX 100635
FFSMKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
135 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

WIC101-127-100645-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-260810T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Racine WI-Walworth WI-
135 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN RACINE AND EAST 
CENTRAL WALWORTH COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4271 8822 4266 8822 4262 8824 4262 8847
      4263 8853 4265 8859 4271 8864 4275 8864
      4276 8857 4276 8839 4274 8826

$$

WAGNER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1155 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few scattered thunderstorms across southeastern WI
  overnight into early morning, but cannot rule out a stronger
  storm or two and localized flooding especially if it sits over
  the same area.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible
  through the start of the week. The highest chances and
  stronger storm potential southern WI will be Tuesday
  morning/afternoon.

- Second half of the week is trending drier with near normal
  temps with a more active pattern returning for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1200 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Today through Tuesday night:

Warm frontal boundary and surface based instability gradient
remains south of the WI/IL border overnight and continues to be
the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development through
09z. While not expecting the stronger surface based activity to
move further north through the early morning hours, could see a
few elevated storms perk up again across far southeastern WI as
they tap into the 700mb WAA and MLCAPE. Thus will maintain
20-50% PoPs for this area for another few hours. Otherwise,
expect this activity to wane through the early morning hours and
capping increases.

In additional to the Cheddar Curtain PoP chances, widespread
rainfall from Sunday will contribute to increased low-level
surface moisture paired dewpoint depressions of less than 3
degrees along with light/calm winds will be enough to support
widespread fog development through daybreak across southern WI.
Low-lying areas and creeks/river valleys may see the lowest
visibilities with even isolated pockets of dense fog at times.
However, conditions expected to improve after daybreak as temps
warm.

Looking at a normal August temps today with highs in the lower
80s, but will remain fairly muggy with dewpoints in the upper
60s to lower 70s. While not much in the way of upper-level
forcing, the stalled surface boundary set up overnight in IL may
meander back northward through the day and set up closer to the
WI/IL border. This paired with humid air mass and PWATs between
1.5-1.75 inches could be the focus for additional shower and
thunderstorm development through the day. Main concern for our
CWA is will the boundary lift far enough northward to bring the
higher rain/storm chances into far southern WI. If this boundary
does creep northward then could see late morning development
with upstream convection trekking eastward through the morning
initiating storms along the WI/IL border. Will be similar to
Sunday and strong to severe storm potential remains given
similar environment. However, the 00z CAMs are favoring the
boundary staying to our south through much of the day and
continue to be be more of an IL issue. Nevertheless, will
continue to monitor and see how things evolve through the
morning.

The active pattern over the Midwest will continue into Tuesday
as the upper-level low continues to meander around the Hudson
Bay region. Still seeing signs of another mid-level shortwave
trough rounding the base of the broader trough and tracking
across the Upper Midwest through Tuesday morning. This is a
fairly similar setup to the how things played out with Sunday
round of storms across our neck of the woods. Thus looking at
upstream convection bringing an MCV across the area Tuesday
morning bring heavy, efficient rainfall and strong to even
severe wind gusts if it maintains its strength. However, this
activity will depend on where this lingering boundary sets up
as well as prior days convection, thus the threat remains, but
is conditional. Will have to watch and see how things take
shape over the next 24-36 hours.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Wednesday through Sunday:

Continue to see a trend in the global models of the upper-level
low and trough beginning to track eastward into Quebec midweek
and onward. As a result it will shift the active pattern
eastward as well. While cannot completely rule out a stalled
boundary and some shower/storm activity across the area
Wednesday as hints of a mid- level vorticity lobe swings down
the backside of the gradually departing upper-level trough, but
any activity will be highly dependent on the prior days
activity. However by Thursday, surface high pressure begins to
build into the Upper Midwest and continue to build through
Friday as the upper-level ridge axis builds across the central
CONUS. This will bring a drier pattern to southern WI through
the end of the week.

Then the long range models and ensembles trends turn more
active into the weekend as a series of mid-level shortwave
trough as projected to swing across the region. This will bring
a periodic shower and thunderstorm chances across the area
Saturday and Sunday.

Temps in the extended trend toward normal through the middle of
the week before dipping to near or even below normal temps
toward the end of the week.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A few thunderstorms have develop over southeastern WI late
tonight and may impact southeastern terminals such as ENW, but
expecting this activity to wane after 06z-08z. Any activity may
bring hail, heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, along with a few
stronger gusts. Otherwise, much of southern WI terminals will
see lighter winds paired with ample low level moisture to
support fog development and lowering ceilings. Expect widespread
MVFR conditions to develop overnight, with pockets of IFR and
even LIFR especially for areas that saw heavier rainfall
earlier. Then conditions are expected to improve after daybreak
as the stalled frontal boundary remains south of the area into
IL and weak high pressure tries to build in through the
afternoon. However, could see some scattered showers and storms
develop along and just north of the WI/IL border during the
afternoon.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1200 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Unsettled pattern is expected for the start of the week as a
frontal boundary meanders across the region. This boundary is
stalled south of Lake Michigan early this morning and is
bringing light and variable winds across the Lake through the
morning into the afternoon. This boundary will also be the focus
for additional shower and thunderstorm development this
afternoon, but mainly looking to impact southern portions of
the the Lake. Will continue to see light and variable winds into
Tuesday as the boundary wobbles back north and as another storm
complex is expected to track along it bringing showers and
thunderstorms across the southern half of the Lake Tuesday
morning and afternoon. Will see another day of shower activity
along this boundary on Wednesday, but then looking at high
pressure to build for the latter half of the week.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-110515-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A round of storms expected in southeastern WI overnight into early
morning. Cannot rule out a stronger storm or two along with
additional heavy rainfall and localized flooding potential.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Additional rain and storm chances persist through midweek.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times.

LMZ643>646-110515-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A round of storms expected for nearshores south of Port
Washington overnight into early morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Additional rain and storm chances persist through midweek.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-110515-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A round of storms expected overnight into the early morning hours for
southern portions of the Lake.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Additional rain and storm chances persist through midweek.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1055 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

WIZ070-100445-
Walworth WI-
1055 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WALWORTH COUNTY THROUGH
1145 PM CDT...

At 1054 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Whitewater, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Whitewater, Elkhorn, East Troy, Potter Lake, Richmond, La Grange,
Abells Corners, Tibbets, Troy Center, and Millard.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 near mile marker 320.
 Interstate 43 between mile markers 29 and 42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4282 8878 4284 8873 4284 8831 4272 8831
      4265 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 247DEG 12KT 4275 8866

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

WAGNER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1104 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     Hail             3 SSE Fontana-on-Geneva 42.50N 88.55W
08/09/2026  M1.00 Inch       Walworth           WI   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1116 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 PM     Hail             2 W Pell Lake           42.55N 88.40W
08/09/2026  E1.50 Inch       Walworth           WI   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1119 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     Hail             1 SSW Lake Geneva       42.57N 88.44W
08/09/2026  M1.00 Inch       Walworth           WI   Amateur Radio

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1205 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

WIZ070-071-100530-
Walworth WI-Racine WI-
1205 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL WALWORTH AND
SOUTHWESTERN RACINE COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...

At 1205 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Geneva, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhorn, Bohners Lake, Browns Lake, Burlington, Springfield, Honey
Creek, and Abells Corners.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 320 and 326.
 Interstate 43 between mile markers 25 and 34.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 8856 4274 8854 4277 8825 4261 8826
      4261 8830 4259 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0505Z 273DEG 15KT 4267 8840

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMILLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1208 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

WIZ071-100530-
Racine WI-
1208 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL RACINE COUNTY
THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...

At 1208 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Racine, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Racine, Mount Pleasant, Wind Point, Caledonia, Elmwood Park, North
Bay, and Franksville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4277 8775 4276 8777 4271 8777 4267 8779
      4268 8787 4278 8788 4279 8775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0508Z 273DEG 15KT 4273 8783

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMILLER