Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Milwaukee, WI

932 
WGUS73 KMKX 120006
FFSMKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
706 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

WIC105-120016-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-260612T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rock WI-
706 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN ROCK COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for portions of 
east central, south central, and southeast Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 8878 4250 8919 4285 8899 4284 8878

$$

GEHRING

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
151 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional risk for severe storms this afternoon into early
  this evening. Damaging winds and a tornadoes are the primary
  concern, large hail a secondary concern especially along and
  south of the I-94 corridor.

- Flash flooding of urban and slow drainage areas is expected
  with thunderstorms. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through
  this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Tonight and Friday:

A very challenging forecast for the rest of today. The mesoscale
is interesting, but quite messy for a number of factors.

The first challenge is the lingering effects of the
showers/storms that moved through the area this morning. This
has overturned our airmass a bit and currently low level lapse
rates and instability are suffering. That s145aid, we do have a
solid mid level wave becoming negatively tilted and a surface
low moving northeast into the area. This is more spring like
forcing, which can lead to rapid low level airmass and
instability recovery.

Guidance continues to suggest that airmass recovery will at
least give it a try as forcing moves to the northeast. With
considerable low level shear in place (very large effective low
level helicity) it would not take much storm organization to
pose a damaging wind and tornado risk.

At the moment we are targeting counties adjacent to the WI/IL
state line for the best tornado potential if low level recovery
occurs and instability responds. To the north of this area, any
supercellular structures will pose a hail and damaging wind
risk.

Finally, the airmass remains very moist and any storm will be
capable of heavy rainfall with rates between 1-2 inches per
hours. The good news is that this next round of rain/storms
should be progressive, but urban and slow drainage areas will be
at risk for flash flooding due to excessive rates.

Quiet weather is expected Friday as weak high pressure moves
across the Midwest. Mainly clear skies and highs near 80 are
expected.

Gagan

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Friday night through Thursday:

Our next cold front and chance for showers/storms arrives during
the Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. The best upper
support and forcing has been located to our southwest with the
past several runs of models. That said, there should be enough
low level convergence with modest MUCAPE profiles and increasing
shear to support scattered thunderstorms moving northwest to
southeast across the area during the mid afternoon hours into
the evening. SPC has the region in a marginal risk for a few
storms that could produce marginally severe hail and localized
gusty winds.

A digging trough over the eastern CONUS will result in quieter
weather, with a sizable drop in dewpoints and a cooler airmass
moving into the region. Northwest flow will send a few
shortwaves through the region with some model agreement toward a
more organized wave moving through the region in the late
Tuesday through Wednesday time frame.

Gagan

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Primary concern for the this afternoon into this evening is the
severe thunderstorm potential. Storms will develop to our west
after 18z and move to the east through southern WI during the
mid to late afternoon hours, exiting to the east after 02z. Very
heavy rainfall and wind gusts will accompany these storms,
lowering visibility and ceilings to IFR. Winds will shift to the
west after storms exit and skies are expected to clear.

Gagan

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Southwest winds will become breezy south to southeasterly this
afternoon as low pressure around 29.5 inches moves from eastern
Iowa to central Lake Michigan by early evening. By Friday morning
the low will continue to accelerate northeastward into Ontario.
Winds will become westerly and breezy behind the low pressure area
this evening through the overnight. Numerous thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon and evening and may become severe.

A small craft advisory is in effect from this afternoon through
tonight for wind gusts and elevated waves. Highest waves toward
Sheboygan.

Gagan

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-
     WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 11 PM Thursday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...4 PM Thursday to 4 AM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 PM Thursday to
     11 PM Thursday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
200 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-121900-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
200 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will move west to east across southern Wisconsin
this afternoon into early this evening. Damaging winds, isolated
tornadoes, and large hail are the main hazards. The greatest
tornado risk is for counties along the Wisconsin Illinois state
line, roughly along and south of a line from Darlington to Racine.

Flash flooding of urban and slow drainage areas is expected.

There is a moderate swim risk late this afternoon and tonight for
Sheboygan, Ozaukee and Milwaukee counties. Breaking waves and
currents are expected. Stay away from dangerous areas like piers
and breakwalls.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and
evening.

LMZ643>646-121900-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
200 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon and
evening.

Winds and waves will reach Small Craft Advisory levels late this
afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There are chances for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and
evening.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-121900-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
200 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon and
evening.

Areas of dense fog will remain possible especially over the north
half.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There are chances for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and
evening.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1137 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

WIZ059-063>066-069>072-111730-
Walworth WI-Rock WI-Waukesha WI-Milwaukee WI-Racine WI-Washington WI-
Jefferson WI-Dane WI-Kenosha WI-
1137 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MILWAUKEE...
WALWORTH...ROCK...RACINE...WAUKESHA...SOUTHEASTERN DANE...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...JEFFERSON AND KENOSHA COUNTIES THROUGH 1230
PM CDT...

At 1137 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Stoughton to near Candlewick Lake.
Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kenosha, Waukesha, Janesville, New Berlin, Beloit, Menomonee Falls,
Muskego, Pleasant Prairie, Whitewater, Pewaukee, Stoughton, Fort
Atkinson, Sussex, Elkhorn, Hartland, Delavan, Jefferson, Hales
Corners, Lake Geneva, and Mukwonago.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 320 and 338.
 Interstate 39/90 between mile markers 153 and 187.
 Interstate 94 between mile markers 265 and 301.
 Wisconsin Highway 26 between mile markers 6 and 35.
 Interstate 43 between mile markers 0 and 58.
 Interstate 41/94 between mile markers 336 and 346.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8937 4285 8937 4286 8939 4320 8851
      4320 8842 4323 8841 4330 8824 4254 8788
      4249 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 247DEG 50KT 4287 8916 4239 8893

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CMILLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

WIZ058>060-065-066-111815-
Dodge WI-Waukesha WI-Milwaukee WI-Washington WI-Ozaukee WI-
1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OZAUKEE...NORTHERN MILWAUKEE...
NORTHEASTERN WAUKESHA...WASHINGTON AND EAST CENTRAL DODGE COUNTIES
THROUGH 115 PM CDT...

At 1243 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Iron Ridge to near Germantown to West
Milwaukee. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Milwaukee, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Brookfield, Greenfield, Menomonee
Falls, West Bend, Mequon, Hartford, Whitefish Bay, Brown Deer,
Grafton, Cedarburg, Port Washington, Sussex, Jackson, Fox Point, Elm
Grove, Slinger, and Saukville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 between mile markers 303 and 310.
 Interstate 43 between mile markers 73 and 110.
 Interstate 41 between mile markers 40 and 77.
 U.S. Highway 45 between mile markers 61 and 73.
 Interstate 41/894 between mile markers 0 and 2.
 Interstate 41/43/894 between mile markers 7 and 9.
 Interstate 43/94 between mile markers 311 and 315.
 Interstate 794 between mile markers 1 and 3.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4338 8787 4326 8791 4318 8788 4312 8790
      4307 8787 4303 8790 4299 8788 4295 8798
      4320 8828 4334 8859 4354 8829 4354 8780
      4349 8779
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 238DEG 43KT 4340 8846 4325 8819 4302 8797

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

HEEREN