Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
332 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated fcst to reflect model trends for today and Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another warm and muggy day is on tap across ENC today.

2) A more active pattern persists into midweek, with showers
and storms expected each day, some of which could bring gusty
winds and heavy rain.

3) Another round of dangerously high heat and humidity builds
mid to late week into the weekend.

4) A very unstable atmosphere develops in tandem with the high
heat and humidity mid to late in the week, and could produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Temps across inland areas get into the mid 90s
while temps along the OBX get into the upper 80s this afternoon.
At the same time, expect dewpoints to remain around 75 with the
highest dewpoints noted directly behind the seabreeze today.
This is forecast to result in heat indices around 100-105F today
across much of ENC. While the seabreeze will likely kick off
convection once again today, much like yesterday think there is
some time for heat indices to reach heat advisory criteria prior
to thunderstorm initiation. Kept the Heat Advisory as is with
obs supporting the heat indices around 105 for SW counties.
Even if we dont reach explicit criteria in counties out of the
Heat Advisory it will be hot and muggy today so make sure you
are taking proper precautions if headed outside for an extended
time period today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...At first glance today had a rather similar
setup across ENC compared to yesterday as weak upper ridging
extends N towards ENC keeping the area under a hot airmass. With
that in mind, initial thought was substantial coverage of
showers and storms along and ahead of the sea breeze this
afternoon. However, this has not materialized to this point.
Current thinking is slightly drier conditions above 500mb noted
on the 12Z sounding today compared to yesterday, paired with
less instability (2-3k instead of 4-6k) might be the reason for
the lesser coverage. Still, scattered showers and tstorms are
expected ahead of the sea breeze as updrafts slowly saturate the
air above 500, eating way at the "cap" aloft. Of note, near
Alligator River and NOBX there is enough convergence to overcome
the drier air aloft, and this region is still expected to see
numerous to widespread tstorms. Weak shear keeps storms more
"pulse-like" with weak steering flow making the storms slow
moving and back building. With all this in mind, storms will be
capable of heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and
small hail. Where heavy rain rates linger, flash flooding will
be a concern today.

Tomorrow a backdoor cold front/seabreeze combo will be the
focus for thunderstorm activity. Guidance continues to suggest
PoPs remain around the 50-80% range as the back door cold front
provides some additional forcing. Instability however should be
less as more cloudy skies get in the way. SPC has portions of
ENC under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather as well
on Wed with damaging winds (40-60 mph) being the main hazard
within the strongest storms. WPC has kept much of the area
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow as well.

Beyond mid week, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more
typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly
build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with
heat indices 100-110 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Not much change in forecast thinking from Thurs
onwards as low level thicknesses remain around normal values
which places inland temps in the mid to upper 90s across ENC.
With dewpoints in the 70s there could be widespread heat
indices around 100-110 each afternoon from Thurs into Sat.
Probabilistic heat risk shows a 60% + chance for reaching major
heat risk values with the greatest risk coming on Thurs/Fri so
additional heat advisories may come into play later this week.

KEY MESSAGE 4...With the aforementioned high heat and humidity
expected Thurs into this weekend, a very unstable atmosphere
develops with the potential for ML CAPES to near 3500 J/KG each
day, and SFC based instability between 4000-5000 J/KG. As is
typical this time of year, deep layer shear will not be too
strong, but any storms that can develop with some upper level
support could produce strong downdraft/microburst winds and very
heavy rain characterized by PW's exceeding 2". Will also be
monitoring Sunday as the next potential front makes an
appearance across ENC which could help to focus thunderstorm
activity and bring more shear to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions across all of ENC thunderstorms increase in
coverage this afternoon and evening. Have maintained the TEMPO
groups to mention this threat with general timing at all TAF
sites after 18Z today. Any TSRA that develop today will be
capable of 30-45kt winds and significant reductions to VIS.
Showers and thunderstorms once again wane tonight with another
round of low stratus and patchy fog possible. A backdoor cold
front will track across the region on Wed bringing yet another
chance for showers and thunderstorms and potential for sub-VFR
conditions both with thunderstorms Wed PM and with low stratus
moving in Wed AM.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Beyond Wed, more typical iso to
widely sct activity expected as ridging rebuilds into ENC so a
much lower threat for sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
10-20 kt SW winds today with 2-5 ft seas keeping things just
below SCA levels for the most part. There will be the potential
for another round of SCA conditions across the coastal waters
and Pamlico Sound tonight, though this looks less likely than
this mornings SCA's so still don't have SCA's out for it.
Regardless do expect winds to ease close to daybreak Wed once
again. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible
across our waters today and Wednesday as a shortwave moves
through bringing a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Weakening front moves into the
waters on Wed, though as is typical in July, the front appears
to wash out, with any N'rly flow behind it short lived with
return flow developing Wed evening. SW'rly winds look to
strengthen some on Thurs/Fri as a thermal trough strengthens
across the area bringing our next potential threat for SCA's to
the waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ079-090>092-
     094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
507 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ029-044>047-080-081-203-080915-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-
Northern Outer Banks-
507 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
evening with a few of these storms becoming strong in nature
bringing a threat for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, which
could lead to instances of localized flooding.

Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the 70s
will result in heat indices around 100-105 this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday out ahead
of an incoming front with a few of these storms becoming strong in
nature bringing a threat for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall,
which could lead to instances of localized flooding.

Oppressive heat and humidity is possible mid through late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ204-205-080915-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
507 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Oppressive heat and humidity is possible mid through late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-080915-
West Carteret-East Carteret-
507 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.
   Heat Advisory.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
evening with a few of these storms becoming strong in nature
bringing a threat for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, which
could lead to instances of localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Oppressive heat and humidity is possible mid through late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ079-090>092-094-193-194-198-199-080915-
Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-
Inland Onslow-Coastal Onslow-
507 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
evening with a few of these storms becoming strong in nature
bringing a threat for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, which
could lead to instances of localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday out ahead
of an incoming front with a few of these storms becoming strong in
nature bringing a threat for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall,
which could lead to instances of localized flooding.

Oppressive heat and humidity is possible mid through late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
213 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 S Manteo              35.87N 75.66W
07/06/2026  M49 MPH          AMZ231             NC   Mesonet

            Croatan Sound WeatherFlow Station reported
            43kt wind gust.

&&

CEB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ047-203-072030-
Mainland Dare NC-Northern Outer Banks NC-
330 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL DARE COUNTY THROUGH 430
PM EDT...

At 330 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Manns Harbor, or 10 miles southwest of Kill Devil Hills. This
thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Nags Head, Manns Harbor, Mashoes, Manteo, Whalebone, Jockeys Ridge
State Park, Roanoke Island Festival Park, Wanchese, Nags Head Fishing
Pier, Bodie Island Lighthouse, and Outer Banks Fishing Pier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3581 7570 3594 7592 3598 7585 3599 7559
      3577 7553
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 257DEG 4KT 3589 7574

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

41

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
454 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ047-072130-
Mainland Dare NC-
454 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL DARE COUNTY THROUGH 530
PM EDT...

At 454 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout near Stumpy Point. This thunderstorm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Dare
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 7588 3572 7588 3573 7580 3568 7577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 254DEG 4KT 3571 7586

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

41

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
524 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ090-091-072230-
Lenoir NC-Duplin NC-
524 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LENOIR AND NORTHERN DUPLIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 523 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of
Goldsboro to 7 miles northwest of Bowdens. Movement was east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kinston, Warsaw, La Grange, Mount Olive, Kornegay, Deep Run, Bowdens,
Beautancus, Kenansville, Albertson, Kinston Regional Jetport,
Sarecta, Faison, Pink Hill, Calypso, and Sandy Bottom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 7816 3518 7808 3519 7802 3517 7797
      3517 7793 3515 7789 3518 7783 3534 7782
      3536 7780 3534 7768 3533 7751 3503 7769
      3501 7774 3499 7771 3492 7775 3498 7815
      3508 7816 3509 7817
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 271DEG 29KT 3541 7807 3512 7820

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

41

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
529 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

NCZ046-047-081-072230-
Mainland Dare NC-Mainland Hyde NC-Tyrrell NC-
529 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HYDE...WEST CENTRAL
DARE AND SOUTHERN TYRRELL COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 529 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from near
Killkenny to near Stumpy Point. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Stumpy Point, Gum Neck, Kilkenny, Killkenny, Fort Landing, and Frying
Pan Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 7628 3558 7568 3575 7575 3582 7602
      3578 7636
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 286DEG 20KT 3569 7626 3566 7581

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

41

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