Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
239 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe threat remains in place this afternoon and tonight,
with best chances confined along the coast but an isolated
threat possible further inland. Greatest threats will be
damanging winds and torrential downpours capable of causing
flash flooding. Stronger storms will be capable of hail and a
tornado.

2) Reduced thunderstorm risk is expected tomorrow and Wednesday
in the wake of the departing low, with more unsettled weather
returning by Thursday into the weekend as front wobbles back
towards the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface analysis shows a weak surface
low over the SC Pee Dee region, gradually lifting along a
stalled frontal boundary draped across the coastal plains of the
Carolinas. Aloft, stout mid-level trough remains in place with
a particularly strong shortwave pivoting around its base this
afternoon.

After some surprisingly strong convection this morning, eastern
NC has cleared out nicely with ample sunshine allowing
temperatures to rebound back into the mid to upper 80s with dew
points, especially along the coast, in the mid to upper 70s. 18z
MHX RAOB measured MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg and a whopping 6500 J/kg
surface-based, plus effective shear of 45 kt. All told, this
points to a more favorable pre- storm environment than
yesterday, favoring a combination of multicell clusters and
supercells (local RAOB measured a supercell composite of 18.7
and an STP of 2.1). Damaging winds are the primary threat for
all modes with considerable dry air aloft inferring DCAPEs of
1200+ J/kg. Supercells will also pose a hail risk. Supercell
interactions with sea/sound breezes and remnant outflow from
morning convection could also spin up a tornado.

SPC has maintained most of the Outer Banks and coastal locales
down to the SC border in a Slight (Level 2/5) risk, with a
marginal risk (Level 1/5) farther inland. Given this morning's
convection and resulting stabilization, the highest risk has now
shifted to the south and west, focused from roughly New Bern SW
towards the NC/SC state line. Convection is most likely from
17z through 23z today, with the bulk of activity dissipating
after sunset. Any remnant activity should fully dissipate after
midnight when the last shortwave pushes off the coast and SFC
low departing to the NE, leading to a less conducive flow
pattern through the column.

PWATs are down slightly but given the prolonged period of
unsettled weather torrential rainfall could once again pose a
flash flooding risk, especially in urban and poor drainage
areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance continues to suggest tomorrow will be
primarily dry with only an isolated shower or storm possible on
area breezes in the afternoon. On Wednesday, surface flow
becomes more onshore kicking off a period of increasing moisture
and instability across the Southeast U.S. coastline with a
modest uptick of shower and thunderstorm coverage. Another wave
of low pressure is forecast to lift along the offshore frontal
boundary Thursday into Friday, pulling it back towards the coast
and providing a better focal point for more widespread coverage
of showers and storms into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
# --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is
not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still
reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as
frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #

VFR conditions expected through the majority of the period with
an increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms through 00z
as surface low slowly progresses along a stalled frontal
boundary draped across the coastal plain. All terminals could
see direct impacts but highest probabilities are for EWN and
OAJ. The strongest storms could produce winds in excess of 50 kt
as well as some hail. Convective coverage falls off
considerably after 00z, with the area becoming completely dry by
04-05z.

Clearing skies and light winds will once again set the stage
for a localized low stratus and fog threat early Tues AM,
especially for areas that see rainfall this afternoon.

Outlook: Drier conditions expected tomorrow with a modest
uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage Wednesday in
increasingly moist SW flow. Front gets pulled back inland
Thursday into Friday with even more widespread shower/storm
coverage possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions expected through much of the week as
frontal boundary meanders across the region, being pulled back
and forth by weak waves of low pressure progressing along it.
Quiet conditions ongoing today with seas around 2-3 feet with a
12-13 second period peeking through wind chop, while winds are
light and variable at generally 5 kt or less. Little change
expected in these conditions today, although thunderstorm risk
will increase this afternoon and evening as activity gets kicked
up along the aforementioned frontal boundary. Stronger storms
could produce winds in excess of 50 kt and also produce hail.

Outlook: Winds will become Nerly for a brief time on Tuesday
before southerly flow returns by the middle of the week, and
lasting into the end of the week. Seas should generally hold
around 2-3ft through Thursday, then build to 3-5ft late in the
week. The risk of thunderstorms may decrease some Tuesday and
Wednesday before increasing again later in the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...MS/CEB
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...MS/CEB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
507 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

NCZ029-044-079-090-091-250915-
Martin-Pitt-Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-
507 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms capable of strong winds will be possible
this afternoon into this evening. The strongest thunderstorms may
also produce hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ045>047-080-081-092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205-250915-
Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Jones-
Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-West Carteret-East Carteret-
Inland Onslow-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island-
Hatteras Island-
507 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will
be possible this afternoon into this evening. The strongest
thunderstorms may also produce hail. Periods of heavy downpours are
also possible, which will bring an increased threat of localized
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
349 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

NCZ196-242030-
East Carteret NC-
349 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CARTERET COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 348 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout near South River, or 13 miles west
of Cedar Island, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cedar Island, South River, Sealevel, Atlantic, Stacy, and Cedar
Island Ferry Terminal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 7667 3507 7659 3501 7617 3482 7640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 294DEG 13KT 3497 7655

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RCF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
400 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

NCZ198-199-242045-
Coastal Onslow NC-Inland Onslow NC-
400 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ONSLOW COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
North Topsail Beach, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
North Topsail Beach, Folkstone, Onslow Beach, Sneads Ferry, and Sea
View Pier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 7751 3446 7753 3447 7754 3455 7759
      3465 7727 3447 7714
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 238DEG 15KT 3448 7748

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RCF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
405 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

NCZ090-092-198-199-242045-
Coastal Onslow NC-Jones NC-Inland Onslow NC-Duplin NC-
405 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN JONES...ONSLOW...
SOUTHEASTERN DUPLIN AND WESTERN CARTERET COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Catherine Lake, or 9 miles southwest of Half Moon, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, New River Station, Half Moon, Pumpkin Center, Camp
Lejeune Center, Piney Green, Swansboro, Hubert, Richlands, Maysville,
Silverdale, Kellum, Cypress Creek, Midway Park, Verona, Catherine
Lake, Belgrade, Albert J Ellis Airport, Richlands South, and Deppe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 7764 3472 7768 3472 7773 3491 7772
      3492 7715 3479 7715 3479 7717 3478 7717
      3478 7715 3457 7716
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 274DEG 23KT 3477 7762

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Simms

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
431 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

NCZ204-205-242115-
Hatteras Island NC-Ocracoke Island NC-
431 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HYDE AND
SOUTHEASTERN DARE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 430 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Hatteras Ferry Terminal, or 13 miles west of Frisco,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Frisco, Buxton, Hatteras Ferry Terminal, and Cape Hatteras
Lighthouse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 7597 3533 7548 3521 7552 3512 7590
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 279DEG 20KT 3524 7587

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26

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