Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
930 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe thunderstorm watch has been expanded to Beaufort,
Washington, Tyrrell, Hyde, Dare Counties.

Updated aviation discussion. Marine Headlines (SCAs) have been
expanded to cover more of our inside waters. Contingent severe
threat remains similar.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening into tonight. Best window between 8PM-1AM +/- an hr or
so. The main threat will be damaging winds, with potential for
an isolated tornado, small hail, freq lightning and locally
heavy rain.

2) Seasonable and dry mid to late week. Another front will
approach the area this weekend, becoming unsettled again late
weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

9 PM Update...Have expanded the watch to cover the entire nrn
half of ENC, as good dynamics in place here with the low moving
acrs the Delmarva. Latest SCP indicative of values above 15 in
this area should allow for progression of svr threat all the way
to the OBX zones later this evening. Further south, uncertainty
in storm covg as little convective develpment attm, possibly
tied to some lack of moisture and developing nocturnal CIN.
Further updates to the watch area are still possible and will
cont to monitor.

An anomalously strong upper level trough
amplifies over the eastern US today, with a potent shortwave
diving southeast through VA and the Carolinas. A strong LLJ
ahead of this feature should lead to increasing moisture
advection, with PWATs once again climbing back above 2".
Meanwhile, heating of a moist boundary layer should support
moderate instability, with MLCAPE rising into the 1500-2500 j/kg
range. MHX 18Z sounding shows MUCAPE in excess of 5kJ/kg, but
we've been relatively clear from the debris clouds . Aloft, a
notable upper jet max is forecast to overspread the instability
axis, supporting deep layer shear of 30-45kt. While instability
will be moderate, the shear/instability/forcing combo is notable
for this time of year. This combination supports the threat for
severe weather, with modest support from ensemble, analog, and
machine learning guidance. The main potential limiting factors
are timing and potential subsidence, with area remaining capped
through much of today. Most guidance continues to show that the
stronger convection will not reach ENC until, or after, sunset.
Despite the potential for a gradually stabilizing boundary
layer, if strong large-scale forcing is realized, it should help
support deep convection well past the typical diurnal max in
convective intensity this time of year. Thus the reason the
watch is in effect until 1am. The watch may need to be extended
eastward through portions of ENC later this evening, as TS probs
for the OBX zones have increased a bit. Will see how upstream
development occurs in VA before any watch extention attm. Storm
mode could be a bit messy, with combination of supercells early
ahead of more organized multicell line segments later. Given
the potential amount of forcing present, it appears likely that
a MCS will move through the eastern Carolinas and VA during the
evening and early overnight hours posing a risk of damaging
winds. Low- level SRH around 100-200m2/s2 may support a few
rotating updrafts capable of hail and tornados. However, those
latter 2 hazards should be lower compared to the wind risk.
Given the trend in the track of the low further away from the FA
and the later arrival of convection, SPC has removed the FA
from the 5% tor threat, limiting the potential to 2% across all
of ENC. While convection looks to be fairly progressive, heavy
rain in a high PWAT airmass could pose a localized flood threat,
esp for areas that have received heavy rain over the last few
days (Hyde county east through the Outer Banks), where WPC is
suggesting 6hr rainfall amounts in excess of one inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold front will push offshore early Wed
morning, with sfc high pressure building in from the west while
troughing continues aloft. This will keep temps seasonable and
mostly dry through late week. The next frontal system will
impact the area this weekend into early next week, with
increasing precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR flight cats across all terminals this afternoon with SW
breeze in place. Area will remain mostly dry through this
afternoon, though decaying showers approaching from the NW may
skirt inland terminals through ~20Z. Shower and thunderstorm
chances increasing this evening and into the first part of
tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible, with the main
threat of damaging wind gusts 45-65 mph. Have included TEMPO IFR
groups to try to time out the tstorm potential tonight,
generally 00-05Z. Storms will grad push offshore late tonight.
SSW winds will gusts 15-20 kt this evening and into the first
part of tonight. Widespread, long lasting fog seems unlikely
with at least a breeze persisting through the overnight, but
there may be brief drops in VIS due to patchy fog behind the
storms tonight. Usual offenders with the pessimistic outlooks
that don't pan out for the most part suggest low level stratus.
Not enough confidence in this happening to include prevailing
CIGs for any TAF sites, so continue mention of SCT sub FL020
MVFR stratus. Best chance for MVFR CIGs from stratus across the
Nern tier, making PGV the only TAF site with higher potential.
Mostly clear skies save for some diurnal CU in the afternoon WED
with NW breeze becoming more WNW through the day.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Much drier behind the
fropa for Wed into the end of the week as high pres rebuilds.
Periods of early morning fog and/or stratus possible each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SW winds 10-15kt across coastal waters and
PamSound with less than 10 kt across inside waters, with seas
2-3 ft. SSW winds will increase through the afternoon and
evening, becoming 10-20 kt by early this evening with seas
building to 2-4 ft. SSW winds will peak at 15-25 kt gusting
20-30 kt tonight, with seas building to 4-7 ft. Expanded
existing SCAs to include all inside waters save for Pamlico
Pungo Rivers. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible late this afternoon into tonight. These storms will be
capable of 40-50 kt winds, small hail, waterspouts, and
frequent lightning.

Outlook: Modest NW wind surge 10-20 kt behind the front Wed with
seas grad subsiding. Light to moderate NW winds continue Thu
with 2-4 ft seas. Flow becomes more southerly late Fri and Fri
night.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-135-
     137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...TL/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
924 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NCZ204-205-300130-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
924 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS POINT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-300130-
West Carteret-East Carteret-
924 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ045>047-080-081-203-300130-
Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-
Northern Outer Banks-
924 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ092-094-193-194-198-199-300130-
Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
Coastal Onslow-
924 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight
ahead of a cold front. Damaging wind gusts are expected to be the
primary hazard, though an isolated tornado and some hail along with
isolated flash flooding as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044-079-090-091-300130-
Martin-Pitt-Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-
924 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
917 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NCZ029-290145-
Martin NC-
917 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MARTIN COUNTY
THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

At 917 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Scotland Neck, or 12 miles northeast of Tarboro, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton and Oak City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
eastern North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 7732 3601 7721 3599 7721 3599 7720
      3597 7719 3596 7720 3596 7719 3595 7720
      3594 7719 3593 7717 3594 7713 3593 7712
      3593 7708 3588 7710 3593 7736 3600 7741
      3607 7733
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 277DEG 30KT 3604 7741

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
952 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NCZ029-044-080-290230-
Beaufort NC-Martin NC-Pitt NC-
952 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN PITT...MARTIN AND
NORTHWESTERN BEAUFORT COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

At 951 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 8 miles south of Tarboro, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Washington, Williamston, Bethel, Stokes, Pinetown,
Robersonville, House, Pactolus, Bruce, Old Ford, Pitt Greenville
Airport, Gold Point, Jamesville, Fountain, Hamilton, Oak City,
Smithwick, Parmele, and Everetts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
eastern North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3601 7721 3593 7719 3593 7709 3594 7705
      3586 7703 3590 7692 3581 7688 3589 7683
      3587 7679 3576 7681 3572 7685 3570 7682
      3553 7686 3566 7768 3580 7747 3583 7739
      3582 7735 3591 7734 3600 7741 3607 7733
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 274DEG 51KT 3578 7756

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1115 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NCZ044-079-091-290345-
Greene NC-Lenoir NC-Pitt NC-
1115 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JONES...GREENE...
NORTHERN LENOIR AND SOUTHWESTERN PITT COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM EDT...

At 1115 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jason, or near Goldsboro, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kinston, La Grange, Snow Hill, Dawson, Maury, Ormondsville,
Graingers, Institute, Jason, Roundtree, Lizzie, Kinston Regional
Jetport, Hookerton, Castoria, Shine, Fort Run VFD, and Bull Head VFD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
eastern North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 7782 3536 7782 3538 7780 3540 7780
      3543 7783 3554 7782 3556 7745 3524 7750
      3524 7752 3519 7752 3528 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 275DEG 38KT 3541 7786

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RJ