Beach Hazards Statement 51, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
636 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch has been extended south of Highway 264 into Saturday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected to impact
eastern NC through Saturday morning with a risk of flooding and a
few instances of flash flooding.

2) Weaker cold front approaches Carolinas in the middle of next
week, with a return of oppressive heat and renewed round of showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Meandering frontal boundary has finally made
its way offshore early this morning, currently draped from
roughly Wilmington to Onslow Bay where convection is blossoming.
Behind this boundary, seeing a modest uptick in shower activity
as mid-level shortwave digs across the mid-Atlantic. There have
been a few elevated thunderstorms riding along an elevated
frontal boundary with modest instability present, and this risk
will likely persist for a few more hours as the front moves
little.

The front is likely to wobble but move little through today as
multiple mid-level waves traverse over the boundary in a
persistent troughing pattern. The relative lull currently
observed on radar is likely to fill in later this morning as SW
LLJ increases once again, with heaviest coverage favored south
of Highway 70 where low-level convergence is maximized along the
frontal boundary. Like we saw yesterday, it is not going to be
a constant downpour but rather sct to widespread shower and iso
thunderstorm coverage. Very moist airmass remains in place with
PWATs nearing 2.5" at times. Persistent cloud cover will keep
temps down and limit available instability, so overall rainfall
rates will not be as intense as yesterday. Still, given the
likely coverage of activity some respectable rainfall
accumulations are likely where training occurs.

00Z guidance suite continues to hint at the front lifting
slightly back north tonight and into tomorrow as yet another
wave traverses the frontal zone. It will be a rinse and repeat
to this morning, with a likely lull in coverage before midnight
and then another uptick on coverage as the LLJ restrengthens.
Instability will remain poor to marginal which should reduce max
potential rainfall rates somewhat, but rates up to an inch an
hour are still very much possible. Notably, the aforementioned
wave will help to deepen the mid-level trough, and a successive
wave Sat night will help develop a weak wave of low pressure
that should finally pull the frontal boundary and deeper
moisture offshore.

Overall rainfall amounts have changed little with continued
potential for 3-5" in corridors where training occurs. Highest
probability of this is south of Highway 264 to the southern
coast, as well as the Outer Banks from Oregon Inlet south. In
any robust convection, higher amounts are probable. The REFS
continues to show probabilities of 40-50% for amounts over 5"
mainly along the southern coast south of Highway 70 for today
and Saturday. We remain in a Slight (Level 2/4) risk of
excessive rainfall through Saturday, per WPC.

The Flood Watch for the northern half of the FA will be allowed
to expire this morning. Given the persistent heavy rainfall
signal into the weekend, the segment for the southern half has
been extended to Saturday morning and may need further
extensions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...With Sunday and Monday trending drier with the
lingering front finally getting carried offshore, focus then
turns to another front approaching the eastern CONUS next mid-
week. This boundary appears weaker and more progressive than our
current boundary but will still provide a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Ahead of the boundary, strengthening
southwesterly flow and building low-level thicknesses will bring
a return of oppressive heat with at least a couple days of heat
indices approaching or exceeding 105F possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered to numerous showers and an occasional thunderstorm
will continue to impact area terminals through the next 24
hours. Conditions are a mix of VFR and IFR with some dry
slotting nudging its way over terminals from ISO south.
Prevailing MVFR is still expected through this afternoon with
periodic showers and a few thunderstorms as frontal boundary
continues to meander over the area. Best chc for thunder will
be across the southern terminals EWN and OAJ. With very light
winds and a resurgence of more widespread to numerous shower and
thunderstorm activity, particularly across southern terminals, a
quick return to IFR is likely after 03-04z Sat.

Outlook (Friday night through Tuesday): Sub-VFR conditions in
SHRA and low CIGs will continue to plague ENC through tomorrow
as a frontal boundary remains stalled over the area. The front
is forecast to finally shift south of ENC from north to south on
Sat with gradually improving aviation conditions by Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front is currently stalled over Onslow Bay this morning
with regional observations showing winds at around 10 kt or
less. Gradient will remain relaxed around the front as it moves
little through today, perhaps lifting northward slightly later
tonight. Winds and seas will remain safely below SCA through the
period but multiple rounds of widespread rain and the
occasional thunderstorm will continue to plague area waters
into Saturday morning.

Outlook: A stalled front will finally shift offshore by
Saturday night, with moderate northerly winds developing for
all waters by Sunday. The risk of thunderstorms is expected to
decrease on Sunday as well. A more typical summertime wind and
sea pattern then returns next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-203.
     Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NCZ090>092-094-
     193>196-198-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...MS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1025 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-251430-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-
1025 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Heavy rain capable of flooding is possible today and into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is an elevated risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ090>092-094-193-194-198-251430-
Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-
Inland Onslow-
1025 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Heavy rain capable of flooding is possible today and into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is an elevated risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ196-204-205-251430-
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
1025 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Heavy rain capable of flooding is possible today and into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is an elevated risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ203-251430-
Northern Outer Banks-
1025 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Heavy rain capable of flooding is possible today and into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is an elevated risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-199-251430-
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
1025 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Heavy rain capable of flooding is possible today and into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is an elevated risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1014 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 AM     Flood            6 SSE Oregon Inlet      35.71N 75.49W
07/24/2026                   Dare               NC   Dept of Highways

            Parts of NC 12 are closed due to flooding.

&&

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1029 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

NCZ194>196-241530-
West Carteret NC-East Carteret NC-Southern Craven NC-
1029 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CRAVEN AND CARTERET
COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 AM EDT...

At 1029 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Nc Pamlico to Bogue. Movement was east at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Havelock, Morehead City, Newport, Cedar Island, South River, Cape
Carteret, North River, Merrimon, Pine Knoll Shores, Harlowe, Otway,
Broad Creek, Great Neck, Wildwood, Peletier, Open Grounds Farm,
Bogue, North Harlowe, Bettie, and Cedar Island Ferry Terminal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7710 3467 7712 3468 7716 3468 7714
      3469 7712 3470 7711 3472 7712 3494 7681
      3496 7670 3501 7662 3500 7652 3509 7647
      3510 7641 3503 7620 3462 7673
TIME...MOT...LOC 1429Z 269DEG 19KT 3503 7666 3473 7703

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

41

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1041 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 AM     Flood            Roanoke Island Festival 35.91N 75.67W
07/24/2026                   Dare               NC   Public

            Webcams show street flooding ongoing in
            downtown Manteo along Queen Elizabeth
            Avenue.

&&

Martin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1132 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     Flood            2 SSE Oregon Inlet      35.76N 75.52W
07/24/2026                   Dare               NC   Dept of Highways

            NC DOT reported deep standing water due to
            intense rainfall on Pea Island. Water was up
            to the bottom of some vehicles in the area.

&&

Martin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1231 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 AM     Flood            Fairfield               35.54N 76.22W
07/24/2026                   Hyde               NC   County Official

            Delayed report. Hyde County reported a lot
            of flooding in the area. Two transfer
            stations are closed due to flooding.

&&

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1245 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

NCZ196-241715-
East Carteret NC-
1245 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CARTERET COUNTY
THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

At 1244 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Davis, or 8 miles northeast of Harkers Island, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Carteret County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3466 7653 3486 7634 3485 7628 3462 7649
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 269DEG 13KT 3475 7644

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

41