Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
935 AM PST Fri Jan 9 2026

.Updated AVIATION and MARINE Discussions...

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.AVIATION....AVIATION...09/18Z TAFs...LIFR conditions in fog and
low clouds persist in the valleys west of the Cascades this
morning. Conditions should gradually improve to VFR by 19-20z,
with the Rogue and Illinois Valleys likely taking the longest to
improve and maybe not until 20-21z. With high pressure in control
for the next 7 to 10 days, expect a similar pattern to continue
with the nightly return of fog/freezing fog and low clouds to West
Side Valleys, with clearing expected late morning and afternoon.

Outside of the valleys, VFR conditions will prevail with generally
light winds. Expect some gusty winds along the Cascades and
Siskiyous through the TAF period, and these gusty winds (15 to 25
kts) are expected to make it into the southern end of the Rogue
Valley (Talent/Phoenix/Ashland) where gusts of 25 to 30 kt are
possible this afternoon. This could make for some bumpy approaches
from the south for the Medford Airport. /BR-y

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.MARINE...Updated 815 AM PST Friday, January 9, 2026...Light
winds expected through today, but seas will remain elevated and
steep with conditions hazardous to small craft through this
afternoon. Conditions improve for all areas by this evening.Moderate
south winds develop this weekend, mainly for outer waters, which may
lead to steep seas. Gusty north winds are likely middle to late next
week.

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 AM PST Fri Jan 9 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...

Key Points:

* High pressure aloft will dominate our weather for several days
    - Conditions will be relatively quiet with dry weather
    - Morning fog/freezing fog possible for next several days
    - Air stagnation advisories in place

* Temperatures will be near record late next week

Further Details:

There is fairly good agreement between ensemble data that high
pressure will dominate the region through next week and possible
into early next week. This will result in dry weather (with one
caveat) through at least the next seven days. That caveat being
a chance for showers along/near the coast on Monday, but QPF
amounts will be very light if any showers develop over our area.
Chances for rainfall are much better north of our area.

The biggest impact may end up being fog and freezing fog the next
several mornings along with an airmass that will have little
change. The latter of which has resulted in air stagnation
advisories. Freezing fog is developing as of writing this in the
Rogue Valley (and other areas) as temperatures hover below
freezing. Visibility is down to a quarter mile in several areas.
Therefore, we have issued a freezing fog advisory to account for
the threat of visibility down to a quarter mile or less which
could impact commute times and bring hazardous driving conditions.
Additionally, elevated surfaces will likely see light ice
accumulation this morning due to suspended droplets and freezing
temperatures. Fog and freezing fog will be the trend going forward
and the main weather impact which will go hand in hand with the
air stagnation as the airmass goes unchanged for the next several
days.

Some of our official climate sites may have high temperatures near
record values late next week. Records Thurs/Fri are generally
around the lower 60s. We will be close to these values late next
week and may see some records in jeopardy. The Extreme Forecast
Index from the European model shows maximum temperatures values
approaching higher end of the spectrum relative to the reforecast
analysis. Currently, the NBM has highs falling just short of
records, but this is something to watch as trends may indicate
higher temperatures over the coming days.

-Guerrero

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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for ORZ023-024-
     026-029>031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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