Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
155 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 154 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and into the
   evening. A couple of stronger storms are possible that could
   produce marginally severe winds.

 - A slightly earlier convective start and slightly lower dew
   points is expected to allow most areas to avoid heat advisory
   criteria. Peak heat index values could still reach 105-110F for
   short durations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Surface to mid-level high pressure ridge is located over the far
southern peninsula this morning, providing a light S-SW wind flow
across the region. Current forecast is on track with regards to
convection initiation, with seabreezes expected to push onshore by
Noon. Initial development will likely occur around Lake Okeechobee
and interior Palm Beach County where GOES-derived precipitable
water (PWAT) values are running close to 2 inches, then spread
southward along the seabreeze boundaries through 2 PM. The east
coast seabreeze will be pinned closer to the metro/coastal areas
especially in Palm Beach County but even down to the far western
suburbs of Broward/Miami-Dade County, whereas the Gulf seabreeze
will penetrate slightly farther inland where convection will fire
between Lake Okeechobee and the Gulf coast. As the afternoon
progresses, the showers and thunderstorms will tend to shift
east concentrate over the Everglades and far western suburbs of SE
Florida during the late afternoon and early evening. The bulk of
the precipitation should remain over the Everglades, but the light
wind flow means that thunderstorm outflows should be able to push
towards the metro and Atlantic coastal areas and help to trigger
additional showers/thunderstorms near or over the metro area. As
indicated in the previous discussion, thermodynamic profiles will
support a few strong wind gusts, along with the usual isolated
pockets of 2-4"+ rainfall amounts.

Heat index values will once again be near advisory levels this
afternoon, but earlier onset of convection may preclude the need
for advisories as indicated in the previous discussion. We will
continue to monitor this closely throughout the morning in the
event that trends show heat index values increasing faster than
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

There has not been much change in the pattern evolution for this
weekend. From a synoptic standpoint, the ridge in the Southwestern
US continues to strengthen and allows for increased jet dynamics to
strengthen the trough over the Eastern Seaboard. The base of the
trough is still not expected to make it  into South Florida and the
overall flow pattern will remain largely on the weaker side, but
this enhanced troughing pattern is expected to keep a prevailing
southerly/south-southwesterly flow pattern in place through the
weekend. Therefore, with deep moisture advection continuing and
elevated PWATs of 1.7-2.0" or even more in some areas, diurnal
heating and sea breeze circulations each day will have the necessary
ingredients to produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. With the primary south to south-southwest flow, this
will favor interior and Southeast Florida for highest rain chances
this weekend as showers and storms are expected to be the most
widespread in these areas. The most robust activity will occur in
the later afternoon during peak diurnal heating and once the sea
breeze boundaries advance inland. Model soundings do highlight
adequate SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg as well as inverted-V signatures
and steep low level lapse rates leading to DCAPE values of 1000-1200
J/kg, so there will be an outside chance for an isolated severe
storm or two via gusty winds again both days this weekend.
Otherwise, the primary hazards will continue to be heavy rainfall
that could lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas, and
sub-severe strong wind gusts.

High temperatures this weekend will remain in the low to mid 90s.
The deeper moisture will also keep dew points in the mid to upper
70s for most areas each day, thus maximum heat index values are
anticipated to remain elevated up to the 105-110F range. With the
expectation of some increased cloud cover and an earlier
initiation time for convection to develop, have opted to not
issue a Heat Advisory today, which will end the streak of 13
consecutive days with at least a portion of the region being under
a Heat Advisory unless a short-fused one is issued later today.
HREF probabilities highlight a 10-20% or less chance for heat
indices to reach 105F or higher at any point of day, which is even
lower for occurring over two or more consecutive hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

As the trough draped across the Eastern Seaboard starts to erode
early next week, the local wind regime will start to shift back to
what we typically see in the summer time here in South Florida with
low level flow being dominated by the Atlantic sea breeze. This will
cause diurnal convection to start focusing back over both the
interior and Southwest Florida rather than Southeast Florida like
has been observed recently. Starting Monday, the highest rain
chances (60-80%) will begin to focus across Southwest Florida and
this will last through the end of the long term period.

Other than the rain potential, there is also potential for another
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to impact the area early next week, but
guidance highlights this SAL breaking up upon it's arrival and thus
it's influence on a return to hot conditions should be less than the
previous round. The SAL could lower rain chances for a day or two,
but with this being a thinner layer that clears out much faster, not
expecting there to be any days with limited to no rainfall across
the region.

High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each
day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and
lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Increasing SHRA/TSRA across the eastern half of the peninsula
this afternoon/evening with the potential of bouts of sub MVFR
cigs/vis at any impacted terminal. Onshore winds along both coasts
will remain fairly light with the potential of erratic and gusty
winds at any terminal impacted by SHRA/TSRA. Light and variable
winds will be possible once again tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters this
weekend with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will
remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all local waters.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and
in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally
hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  93  79  93 /  20  60  10  20
West Kendall     77  92  76  92 /  20  60  20  20
Opa-Locka        79  93  79  93 /  20  60  10  20
Homestead        78  92  78  92 /  20  50  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  80  92  80  92 /  20  50  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  80  93  79  93 /  20  50  10  20
Pembroke Pines   80  93  80  93 /  20  60  10  20
West Palm Beach  78  94  78  93 /  10  50  10  20
Boca Raton       79  92  79  91 /  10  50  10  20
Naples           79  91  78  92 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Hadi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
321 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

FLZ073-074-221945-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
321 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Miami-
Dade County through 345 PM EDT...

At 320 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud over
Miccosukee Resort, or 10 miles northwest of Kendall, moving north at
5 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hialeah, Kendall, Doral, Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens, Sweetwater,
Medley, Fountainbleau, Kendale Lakes, Miccosukee Resort, Pennsuco,
Tamiami, University Park, Sunset, Westchester, Olympia Heights,
Kendall West, Tamiami Fairgrounds, Fiu South Campus, and Westwood
Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Persons participating in outdoor activities should seek sturdy
shelter until this storm passes. Open shelters found in parks,
beaches, or golf courses offer no protection from the dangers of
lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 2570 8036 2570 8056 2592 8060 2591 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 182DEG 5KT 2578 8047

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RAG