Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
256 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

 - An active weather pattern remains in place into early this week
   as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
   develop each day. The strongest storms could contain heavy
   downpours and frequent lightning.

 - Heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined with slow
   moving storms will increase the risk for localized flooding
   especially over the urban and poor drainage areas.

 - High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s across
   most of South Florida through this week, creating widespread
   Moderate HeatRisk.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The forecast remains on track thus far today. Convection is
beginning to increase in coverage and will continue to do so given
ample instability and as we enter the peak heating time of day.
Steering flow is out of the W/SW, which will favor east coast
metro areas observing the brunt of the rainfall this afternoon
and evening. HREF LPMM highlights a high-end potential scenario of
5-7" of rain to fall in a localized area in a short period of time
(2-4 hours), which could result in flash flooding. Given that the
most rainfall will fall in the more flooding prone metro areas
across SE Florida, this flooding risk will be the main hazard to
monitor through this evening. Otherwise, most areas that do
experience minor flooding will be a result of poor drainage.

The other item of concern is the low-end possibility for a couple
of severe storms as a result of gusty winds. While updraft
strength is still expected to be limited due to conditions
explained in the previous discussion, DCAPE on latest ACARS
soundings is around 900 J/kg. This is not quite high enough to be
worried about widespread downburst winds, but if a core or two
becomes strong enough via sea breeze and outflow boundary
collisions, it will be possible to get an isolated severe storm or
two.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Upper-level troughing draped across the Eastern Seaboard will begin
lifting away into the Atlantic today, while an upper-level ridge
over central CONUS builds eastward. At the surface, South Florida
remains situated between split high pressure anchored over the
Atlantic and the Gulf. Meanwhile, a surface frontal boundary
continuing its southward push across the Southeast U.S. will help
maintain a light south-southwesterly steering flow across our region
today. With limited synoptic support aloft, convective activity will
once again be driven by sea-breeze and mesoscale boundary collisions
today.

Satellite-derived products, along with the 00Z MFL sounding and
recent ACARS data, show a pocket of relatively drier air from the
Gulf has filtered across the region, resulting in slightly
reduced PWATs compared to previous days (1.8-2.1 inches). Despite
this modest decrease, tropical moisture continuing to pool in from
the south will support an increase in convective coverage today
compared to yesterday. Under the prevailing southwesterly flow,
scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop across the
local waters and SW Florida this morning before gradually shifting
toward the East Coast, where coverage is expected to maximize
during the afternoon and early evening. Primary hazards will be
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and localized heavy downpours,
which could lead to nuisance flooding across urban and poor-
drainage areas. Given the potential for relatively drier air
lingering aloft, isolated robust thunderstorms may also produce
locally damaging downbursts.

The surface frontal boundary is expected to remain stalled out
across northern Florida through Tuesday, while the western Atlantic
high pressure pushes back into the region, shifting local winds to
the southeast. With PWATs expected to increase again to over 2
inches, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop across South Florida on Tuesday. Under the returning
easterly flow regime, convection should initiate near the East Coast
and gradually shift inland toward the interior and SW Florida into
the afternoon.

High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s across the
region today, with mid 90s possible across interior SW Florida on
Tuesday. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 70s along the
coasts and low/mid 70s inland. Maximum heat indices between 103-107
degrees are expected, with Moderate HeatRisk continuing across all
urban corridors through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Central CONUS upper-level ridging will continue to build eastward
toward the East Coast through midweek, while the stalled surface
frontal boundary over northern Florida gradually washes out. High
pressure over the western Atlantic is expected to re-establish full
control over the region by Wednesday. PWATs and convective coverage
will lower back toward seasonal normals. Convection will remain
primarily sea-breeze and mesoscale driven, with morning showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving onshore along the East Coast before
shifting inland and toward SW Florida during the afternoon and early
evening.

Another mid/upper-level trough and associated surface frontal
boundary are expected to dig south along the Eastern Seaboard by the
end of the week, nudging the western Atlantic ridge axis southward
once again. Meanwhile, guidance also indicates a plume of Saharan
dust could overspread the region sometime this weekend. Confidence
remains low regarding the timing and impact of these features on
local weather.

High temperatures will rise into the lower 90s across most areas
through the weekend, reaching the mid 90s over interior SW Florida.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 70s/lower 80s along the
coasts to the low/mid 70s over the interior. NBM probabilities of
heat indices exceeding 105 degrees generally increase toward the
second half of the week, along with increasing probabilities of
Major HeatRisk probabilities across urban areas of South Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Scattered SHRA/TSRA is beginning to develop across the region and
is expected to cause periods of MVFR/IFR across the east coast
terminals later today. Primary time frame to monitor for impacts
is between 19-00Z. Winds will be ESE around 5-10 kts with variable
winds expected during storms, and brief wind shifts are possible
due to outflows. At KAPF, SW winds are expected around 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Light to gentle south-southwesterly winds will prevail today before
shifting southeasterly into midweek. Afternoon sea breezes will
produce localized wind shifts each day, turning winds southeasterly
over the Atlantic waters today and southwesterly over the Gulf
waters later in the period. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the local waters each day. Gusty and
erratic winds, along with brief periods of rough seas, will be
possible in and around thunderstorms. Seas across the Atlantic and
Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the
early portion of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  90  79  90 /  30  40  30  40
West Kendall     77  90  78  90 /  20  50  30  40
Opa-Locka        77  91  80  91 /  30  40  30  40
Homestead        78  91  78  91 /  20  50  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  79  90 /  30  40  40  40
N Ft Lauderdale  79  91  80  91 /  30  40  30  50
Pembroke Pines   79  90  79  90 /  30  50  30  40
West Palm Beach  76  92  78  92 /  30  40  30  60
Boca Raton       78  90  79  90 /  30  40  40  50
Naples           77  91  77  92 /  20  40  50  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM....DPB
AVIATION...Redman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
224 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

FLZ067-068-168-071900-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
224 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Palm
Beach County through 300 PM EDT...

At 224 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Haverhill, or near West Palm Beach, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach, Wellington, Palm Beach Gardens, Lake Worth, Riviera
Beach, Palm Beach, Greenacres, Royal Palm Beach, Palm Springs,
Lantana, Lake Park, Haverhill, Cloud Lake, President Donald J. Trump
International Airport, Port Of Palm Beach, Golden Lakes, Gun Club
Estates, Schall Circle, Royal Palm Estates, and Lake Belvedere
Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2665 8004 2671 8004 2671 8005 2659 8005
      2665 8022 2680 8013 2679 8005 2678 8005
      2679 8004 2679 8003 2677 8003 2678 8004
      2676 8005 2672 8005 2677 8004 2672 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 286DEG 14KT 2670 8012

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
248 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ESE Haverhill         26.68N 80.09W
09/07/2026  M48 MPH          Palm Beach         FL   ASOS

            48 MPH wind gust recorded at President
            Donald J. Trump International Airport.

&&

Fisher

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
308 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

FLZ067-068-168-072000-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
308 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Palm Beach
County through 400 PM EDT...

At 308 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Village Of Golf, or near Boynton Beach.
This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Boynton Beach, Delray Beach, Wellington,
Palm Beach Gardens, Lake Worth, Riviera Beach, Palm Beach, Highland
Beach, Ocean Ridge, Greenacres, Royal Palm Beach, Palm Springs, North
Palm Beach, Lantana, Lake Park, Atlantis, Haverhill, and Cloud Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2677 8004 2679 8005 2670 8005 2672 8003
      2663 8004 2653 8005 2656 8004 2655 8004
      2640 8007 2649 8029 2660 8038 2674 8036
      2685 8031 2681 8005 2680 8005 2681 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 288DEG 4KT 2652 8013

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
318 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

FLZ072-074-172-173-072000-
Coastal Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
318 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
and southern Broward Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 318 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Miami Gardens. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar, Davie, Miami Gardens,
Hallandale, North Miami, North Miami Beach, Dania Beach, Miami Lakes,
Cooper City, Opa-Locka, West Park, Miami Shores, Westview, Royal Palm
Ranches, Country Club, Estates Of Fort Lauderdale, and Chambers
Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2586 8020 2589 8034 2607 8028 2605 8014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 299DEG 3KT 2594 8025

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
336 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

FLZ071>073-072015-
Inland Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-
336 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
and southern Broward Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 335 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Mile Marker 30 On Alligator Alley, or 13
miles west of Pembroke Pines, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pembroke Pines, Miramar, Davie, Plantation, Sunrise, Weston, Cooper
City, Sawgrass Mills Mall, Intersection I-75 And U.S. 27,
Intersection I-75 And Griffin Road, Mile Marker 30 On Alligator
Alley, Intersection Alligator Alley And Miami Canal, East Toll Gate
On Alligator Alley, Markham Park, and West Broward Rec. Area On
Alligator Alley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2595 8071 2619 8073 2623 8031 2597 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 280DEG 18KT 2608 8054

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Fisher

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
338 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

FLZ067-068-071-072-168-172-072015-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
338 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Broward and
southeastern Palm Beach Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 338 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Kings Point to
near Coral Springs. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood, Coral Springs, Pompano Beach, Davie,
Plantation, Sunrise, Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach, Boynton Beach,
Delray Beach, Tamarac, Margate, Lighthouse Point,
Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, Highland Beach, Ocean Ridge, Lauderhill,
Coconut Creek, and Oakland Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2628 8008 2627 8008 2610 8010 2610 8011
      2612 8011 2611 8012 2605 8011 2607 8031
      2623 8031 2622 8039 2660 8021 2653 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 268DEG 15KT 2648 8022 2625 8032

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR