Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
745 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 714 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

 - Scattered showers will develop through the early evening hours,
   with coverage most likely across interior and Southwest FL.
   Heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds will be possible
   with the stronger storms.

 - High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s
   each afternoon through the rest of the week.

 - A more unsettled pattern appears possible towards the end of
   the week and over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

11z Mesoanalysis indicates ample convective inhibition (CIN)
across South Florida this morning as a weak surface inversion
gradually erodes with the onset of insolation. This has led to a
rather quick demise of a recent lone thunderstorm that was able
to get going across metro Miami-Dade County thanks to earlier
outflow and brief maximized ascent. A mid to upper level vort max
over the northwestern Bahamas has brought in slightly cooler 500mb
temperatures (-7C to -8C) which has acted to steepen mid-level
lapse rates to 6.0 to 6.5 C/km. This allowed for earlier morning
activity over the nearshore waters to be quite vigorous in nature
with ample lightning and gusty winds observed even well away from
the collapsing cores of the thunderstorm complex. ACARS soundings
as well as RAP analysis depict the continuation of residual dry
air in the atmospheric profile across South Florida, which
explains why the outflow was indeed so gusty. With convective
inhibition still in place across the region, a lull in shower and
thunderstorm activity is forecast to occur over the next several
hours as the surface inversion gradually erodes and diurnal
mixing/heating gets going in earnest. The overnight forecast
remains on track with both convective (40-50 mph winds and
frequent to excessive lightning) and hydrological (pockets of
heavy rainfall as discussed below) hazards still in play across
portions of the area this afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Ridging will remain generally established across the area for the
duration of the forecast period, with an accompanying area of high
pressure near the surface driving easterly/southeasterly winds and
moisture advection across South Florida. However, a developing upper
level trough over the Ohio Valley will help slightly weaken the
ridge as it expands southward over the Appalachians. This weakening
will help enhance lift over our area, and in turn promote more
active and unsettled afternoons on Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast
soundings show a much moister atmospheric column each day, with
PWATs back up to 2 inches or more across much of the area. With
easterly/southeasterly winds prevailing, convection will still begin
along the sea breeze boundary and progress inland, but coverage is
likely to be more numerous than previous days, especially across
southwest FL. HREF guidance suggests 1-2 inches could fall across
portions of the interior and southwest FL, with isolated 3-4
inches in some spots.

Temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s each
afternoon. Heat indices will linger in the low 100s, but cloud
coverage associated with storm activity should help mitigate values
rising into the 105-110F range. Overnight temperatures will also
remain fairly balmy, with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s across
the East Coast, and down to the mid 70s across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Conditions will remain wet and unsettled through the extended period
as South Florida remains entrenched in an area of weakness between
two ridges, and the upper level trough causing this weakness extends
south across the Appalachian mountains. At the same time, some of
the ensemble suites are hinting at a few tropical upper tropospheric
troughs (TUTTs) meandering across the area, which could enhance
instability and lift and result in more widespread unsettled
weather. In fact, the NBM is picking up on this possibility as we
head into the weekend, with Friday afternoon potentially being one of
the wetter ones this weekend (with 60-80% chances of rainfall), with
activity maximized across the interior and southwest portions of
South Florida. With the potential for more widespread coverage, and
the added support from features aloft, the heavy rainfall could lead
to localized flooding for portions of southwest FL. Temperatures
will remain in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Ridging will start
to build back and as we head into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Ongoing isolated SHRA/TSRA activity will become scattered to
numerous across the region after 17-19z. Sub-MVFR cigs and vis
as well as sudden gusty and erratic winds will be possible at any
terminal impacted by SHRA/TSRA today. Added in a TEMPOs for KAPF
between 19z-23z as guidance is more confident on west coast
terminal impacts at this time. L/V winds are forecast once again
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Benign boating conditions will prevail across all local waters as
light to moderate winds continue. Across the local Atlantic waters,
easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail, while westerly
winds are forecast over the local Gulf waters. Scattered showers
and storms are expected each day, mainly in the morning hours and
again in the late evening hours across the local waters. Locally
hazardous winds and rough seas may occur near any storm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  80  91  80 /  60  40  50  20
West Kendall     91  78  91  78 /  60  40  50  10
Opa-Locka        92  79  92  79 /  60  40  60  20
Homestead        92  79  92  78 /  50  40  50  10
Fort Lauderdale  91  80  90  81 /  60  40  50  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  80  91  81 /  60  30  50  20
Pembroke Pines   91  80  91  80 /  60  30  60  20
West Palm Beach  92  78  92  78 /  60  30  50  20
Boca Raton       90  80  90  79 /  60  30  50  20
Naples           92  76  91  77 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION/UPDATE...Hadi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
108 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

FLZ067-068-168-261745-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
108 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Palm
Beach County through 145 PM EDT...

At 108 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Lake Belvedere Estates, or near West Palm
Beach, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach, Wellington, Palm Beach Gardens, Riviera Beach,
Greenacres, Royal Palm Beach, Palm Springs, Haverhill, Cloud Lake,
President Donald J. Trump International Airport, Golden Lakes, Gun
Club Estates, Schall Circle, Royal Palm Estates, Lake Belvedere
Estates, The Acreage, Loxahatchee Groves, Glen Ridge, Lakeside Green,
and Plantation Mobile Home Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2668 8006 2661 8017 2677 8029 2683 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 147DEG 15KT 2669 8014

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Hadi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
131 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

FLZ067-068-071-072-168-172-261815-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
131 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Broward and
southeastern Palm Beach Counties through 215 PM EDT...

At 131 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Godfrey Road, or over Coral Springs,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Lauderdale, Coral Springs, Pompano Beach, Boca Raton, Deerfield
Beach, Delray Beach, Tamarac, Margate, Lighthouse Point, Highland
Beach, Coconut Creek, Oakland Park, North Lauderdale, Parkland,
Hillsboro Beach, Mission Bay, Broadview-Pompano Park, Boca Pointe,
Boca Del Mar, and Hamptons At Boca Raton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2643 8006 2642 8006 2636 8007 2632 8007
      2617 8014 2625 8037 2653 8028 2646 8006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 203DEG 15KT 2629 8023

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CWC