Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
206 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

 - Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days.
   Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

 - Scattered to numerous storms possible today and Saturday, and
   some could be strong. Best chance will come during the
   afternoon and early evening hours.

 - Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into
   early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

No updates needed to the forecast. Still anticipating convection
to be far greater than yesterday and it already is. The TUTT is
moving over the region and that will add a little better upper
level environment in place. At 17z there area was becoming
increasingly unstable with sfc based CAPE of greater than 5k J/kg
while MLCAPE was greater than 3k. With the center of the TUTT just
off to the east there is slightly better diffluence aloft which
will remain in place the rest of the afternoon and into the
evening over south FL. This will aid with thunderstorm development
and rainfall efficiency especially as light better moisture
pushes in. There is a fight between the SAL and higher moisture
content but GOES19 TPW values are indicating around 2" with the
TUTT which will slowly work into south FL through the day and
night. This will be a decent increase from the 1.74" the 12z RAOB
had this morning. The combination of all of that will and is
already leading to better coverage. A few storms yesterday didn't
start to develop till 21z but we are already seeing a few along
the east coast before 17z. Through the remainder of the afternoon
we should see scattered storms continue to develop along the east
coast and over interior areas and with decent SE-ESE flow from the
sfc to h7 storms will move to the east with coverage likely
becoming a little more numerous over the western half of the CWA
late this afternoon.

As for this evening there are some interesting things showing up
in the CAMs. With the exception of the HRRR multiple CAMs are
showing an area of convection developing along the Cuban coast
late afternoon/early evening and then driving north across the FL
straits. There are some questions if this is real or are most of
the CAMs firing convection and due to the instability just
continuing to develop storms as the outflow surges north or are
they on to something. One key is timing. An early initiation would
likely provide a better chance of those storms driving north into
south FL as the inland areas will still be sufficiently unstable
however if storms don't start to move north across the strait till
early evening the convection will likely split peninsula with the
east and west sides both remaining over the marine areas where
the higher instability is. Main impacts from any of this activity
would be gusty winds, especially over the coastal areas, along
with cloud to ground lightning. /CAB/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

As high pressure across the western Atlantic dominates the synoptic
pattern at mid and low levels, a TUTT begins to approach the area
from the Southeast today at the upper levels. This will facilitate
the departure of the dry and dusty air mass that became entrenched
across South Florida for the past two days. Moisture begins to
increase through the day with PWATs approaching 2 inches by this
evening. CAMs depict a general increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity across southern portions of the area associated with the
TUTT with activity pushing north and northwest through the day where
maximum coverage will probably be realized across interior and
Southwest Florida this evening. 500mb temps are poised to cool off a
touch from the 6-7 C range into the 8-9 C range by this afternoon,
which coupled with the enhanced divergence aloft from the TUTT,
could lead to a few more vigorous updrafts today. While conditions
were hot under the dry air mass, heat index values have the
potential to be even higher today as more low level moisture advects
from the southeast. A few areas may see relief especially during the
afternoon and evening with developing showers and storms, however, a
heat advisory will be in effect for all of South Florida today and
could possibly be issued on Saturday as well. Take extra precautions
when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose
fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action
when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more
on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit
ready.gov/heat. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the 70s in
far interior Florida however they will struggle to dip below 80
along the coast. Elevated rain chances linger into Saturday as the
TUTT continues to progress westward and PWATs remain in the 1.7-2
inch range but certainly not a washout by any means. Highest rain
chances will be across interior locations and Southwest areas of the
region. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

High pressure  at the surface is poised to remain draped across the
western Atlantic which will maintain southeasterly flow through the
weekend. This will also advect an additional plume of Saharan
dust across the area by mid-weekend into early next week. The
aforementioned TUTT will weaken and continue to advect westward
away from the region on Sunday, as a drier Saharan air mass is
advected across the area. PWATs begin to drop back into the
1.3-1.4 inch range on Sunday and Monday which should limit the
convective potential towards the end of the weekend into early
next week. Maximum rain chances will drop into the 20-40% through
Wednesday. Hot conditions are expected to continue through the
period, especially for locations that don't receive relief from
afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid-
upper 90s each afternoon with heat index values ranging from
105-110 degrees. Additional head advisories will be likely through
the remainder of the weekend and through much of the upcoming
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Isolated to scattered convection is already developing. Convection
was a little more isolated over the east coast but as storms have
quickly begun to transition more inland and towards the west
coast the coverage has gotten greater. Still anticipate mid to
late afternoon storms impacting multiple terminals which could
temporarily drop terminals down to MVFR and maybe even low end
IFR if the storm is strong enough leading to vsbys dropping to
2sm. With greater moisture lingering into Saturday, a fairly
similar setup is expected for tomorrow. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Moderate east-southeast flow prevails through the upcoming
weekend. There is an increased chance for showers and storms
across local waters today and Saturday which may lead to erratic
winds and waves at times. Outside of any convective activity, wave
heights will remain at 3 feet of less across local Gulf and
Atlantic waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  93  80  95 /  30  30  10  10
West Kendall     78  94  77  95 /  30  30  10  10
Opa-Locka        80  95  80  96 /  30  30  10  10
Homestead        80  93  80  94 /  30  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  82  93  81  93 /  20  30  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  81  93  80  93 /  20  40  10  10
Pembroke Pines   82  96  81  97 /  20  30  10  10
West Palm Beach  80  93  79  94 /  10  50  20  10
Boca Raton       81  92  80  92 /  20  40  20  10
Naples           78  93  79  94 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE: CAB
SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...Rizzuto

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
110 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

FLZ070-071-101800-
Inland Broward County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
110 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Collier
and southern Broward Counties through 200 PM EDT...

At 110 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm 9 miles southeast of Miccosukee Service Plaza,
or 27 miles west of Pembroke Pines, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Miccosukee Indian Reservation, Miccosukee Service Plaza, and Big
Cypress National Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2607 8073 2599 8077 2602 8103 2619 8093
      2617 8084
TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 104DEG 11KT 2605 8078

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
222 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

FLZ067-101900-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-
222 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Palm
Beach County through 300 PM EDT...

At 222 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Canal Point, moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pahokee and Canal Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2693 8043 2679 8048 2684 8065 2690 8062
      2692 8062 2696 8061 2696 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 115DEG 18KT 2691 8059

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
228 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

FLZ069-070-101915-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
228 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Collier
County through 315 PM EDT...

At 228 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Royal Palm Hammock, or 10 miles northwest
of Everglades City, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marco Island, Belle Meade, Marco Island Airport, Royal Palm Hammock,
Lely Resort, Fiddlers Creek, and Port Of The Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2602 8173 2612 8171 2599 8141 2587 8150
      2592 8155 2592 8156 2590 8154 2591 8164
      2594 8164 2593 8172 2597 8174 2595 8167
      2598 8166 2597 8167 2598 8173 2601 8176
      2598 8174 2598 8175 2602 8177
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 110DEG 13KT 2595 8152

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
258 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     9 SW Big Cypress Semino 26.19N 81.07W
07/10/2026  M42 MPH          Collier            FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station HMRF1 Honeymoon Raws.

&&

Fisher

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

FLZ063-066-067-070-102000-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Glades FL-
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central
Collier, central Hendry, west central Palm Beach and southeastern
Glades Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Rotenberger
Wildlife Refuge to 10 miles north of Hendry Correctional to near Ave
Maria. Movement was northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ave Maria, Montura, Immokalee, Felda, Devils Garden, Big Corkscrew
Island, Keri, Bunker Hill, and Lake Trafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2642 8156 2653 8156 2680 8113 2661 8084
      2645 8075 2637 8124 2626 8142 2642 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 143DEG 17KT 2643 8092 2646 8119 2630 8141

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
313 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

FLZ069-070-102000-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
313 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Collier
County through 400 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Lely Resort, or 9 miles south of Golden
Gate Estates, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Naples, Marco Island, Golden Gate Estates, Naples Park, Belle Meade,
Marco Island Airport, Naples Manor, Golden Gate, East Naples, Lely
Resort, West Toll Gate On Alligator Alley, Vineyards, Royal Palm
Hammock, North Naples, Orangetree, Pelican Bay, Lely, South Blocks
Golde, Rookery Bay Aquatic Preserve, and Picayune Strand State
Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2632 8160 2609 8148 2591 8161 2594 8165
      2591 8165 2594 8169 2591 8171 2593 8173
      2597 8166 2598 8167 2598 8173 2601 8176
      2597 8175 2600 8176 2632 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 117DEG 10KT 2608 8163

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR