Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Miami, FL

118 
WWUS52 KMFL 021758
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
158 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

FLC086-021815-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-260702T1815Z/
Miami-Dade FL-
158 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

At 158 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Marlins Park,
or over Miami, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, South Miami,
Virginia Key, Pinecrest, Miami Springs, North Bay Village, West
Miami, Port Of Miami, University Of Miami, Downtown Miami, Coconut
Grove, Liberty City, Marlins Park, Miami International Airport,
Fisher Island, and Little Haiti.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2570 8010 2568 8017 2565 8030 2582 8030
      2585 8015 2577 8008 2574 8006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 341DEG 15KT 2576 8021 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MFL

547 
WWUS52 KMFL 021805
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

FLC086-021814-
/O.CAN.KMFL.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-260702T1815Z/
Miami-Dade FL-
205 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2570 8010 2568 8017 2565 8030 2582 8030
      2585 8015 2577 8008 2574 8006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 341DEG 15KT 2573 8020 

$$

MFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
113 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

 - Another round of thunderstorms is expected to develop today,
   first over interior SoFlo and the spilling over into the metro
   areas later in the afternoon.

 - Slow storm motion combined with the potential for multiple
   rounds of heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding,
   especially across urban and poor drainage areas.

 - Peak heat index values will range between 103 and 108 across
   most areas of South Florida on today and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A sprawling area of mid-level high pressure remains centered over
the Appalachians and Mid-South. While not as strong, ridging will
continue to exert its influence on the synoptic weather pattern over
South Florida, leading to hot afternoon temperatures and more sea-
breeze induced thunderstorms. With 500 mb heights in the 590 to 592
dam range (about average for this time of year according local
sounding climatology), temperatures should be pretty typical for
early July. High temperatures will remain in the low 90s across the
region, and with the drier Saharan dust laden airmass now gone,
deeper moisture will contribute to higher chances of precipitation
and higher apparent temperatures. Heat indices will once again climb
up to the 103 to 108 F range across much of South Florida, leading
to widespread Moderate HeatRisk. These conditions will mostly affect
sensitive populations such as the elderly, but heat illness may
affect anyone without proper cooling and hydration.

Current surface analysis indicates the presence of a stationary
boundary associated with some surface troughing over the Atlantic
waters east of central Florida. It is along this boundary where
north to northeast flow converges with south to southeast flow
over the Bahamas, which has allowed for isolated shower activity
to continue late into the night off the coast of Palm Beach
county. As a result, some isolated to scattered showers will be
possible over the eastern metro area through the early morning
hours as activity moves onshore. The aforementioned boundary
feature will then wash out and lose influence as diurnal heating
induces the sea-breeze wind regime across South Florida. With high
pressure aloft and winds being mostly light and variable, both
the Atlantic and Gulf breeze should advance far inland, creating
scattered to numerous thunderstorms over interior portions of
South Florida. Due to little synoptic forcing being available,
most activity will be driven by sea-breeze and outflow boundary
interactions. CAMs suggest that storm activity will spill over
into the metro areas as cells interact and combine through the
late afternoon and evening hours. With steep low level lapse
rates, ample CAPE (2000-3000 J/kg), and PWATs climbing into the
2.1 to 2.3 inch range, frequent lightning and locally heavy
downpours will be the main concerns. While a few strong wind gusts
are not out the question, the more moist airmass and DCAPE <600
J/kg gives low confidence for any wind threat.

Friday looks to be a pretty similar story, with the highest chances
of precipitation focusing along interior South Florida. Some hi-res
models are hinting that PWATs for Friday may climb even higher,
which could increase the coverage of heavy rainfall. Temperatures
will once again be in the low 90s. The potential for Heat Advisories
will continue to be monitored over the next few days, but the
increased storm coverage and cloud cover should keep the highest
heat indices of 105 to 110 F to a smaller window in time and more
isolated in coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

During the upcoming holiday weekend, mid level ridging centered over
the Southeastern portion of the country on Saturday will gradually
weaken as it slowly pushes southeastward into the western Atlantic.
At the surface, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will
continue to build closer to the Florida Peninsula as the weekend
progresses. South Florida will remain on the western periphery of
this area of high pressure during this frame. This will help to keep
a general southeasterly wind flow in place across the region through
the weekend. The latest forecast model soundings show plenty of deep
layer moisture remaining in place over the region through the
weekend with PWAT values fluctuating between 2.0 and 2.3 inches
during this time frame. This will be supportive of shower and
thunderstorm development each day. The main driver of convective
initiation will be the sea breeze development. With the
southeasterly wind flow in place, the Atlantic sea breeze will be
able to push further inland, which will keep the highest chances of
showers and thunderstorms over the interior and west coast. With a
lack of mid to upper level support, strong thunderstorm development
will remain limited during this time frame. However, it cannot be
entirely ruled out especially over the interior portions of
Southwest Florida where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries
collide. High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s
over the weekend across most areas. Peak heat index values will
still remain on the higher side as they generally will range between
105 and 110 across most areas.

Moving into the early and middle portion of next week, the weather
pattern does not change much as the mid level ridge over the western
Atlantic gradually pushes back to the west and centers over the
Florida Peninsula and the eastern Gulf by Tuesday and Wednesday. At
the surface, South Florida will remain on the western periphery of
an area of high pressure centered in the western Atlantic keeping
the southeasterly wind flow in place. This will allow for daily
convective development to remain sea breeze driven, with the highest
chances of showers and storms focusing over the interior and west
coast east afternoon. As mid level heights gradually rise during the
early to middle portion of the week, heat will remain a concern as
high temperatures generally rise into the lower 90s each day across
most areas. Some locations, however, could see highs rise into the
mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida especially on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Peak heat index values will continue to range
from 105 to 110 each day during the early to middle portion of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Thunderstorms have developed near east coast terminals, moving
very slowly. Coverage through the remainder of this afternoon
will become more widespread, especially more inland. Temporary
flight restrictions will be likely during thunderstorm impacts
with erratic wind direction. Convection will diminish tonight. Winds
outside of storms are generally out of the east, going light and
variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Light and variable winds overnight across most of the region with
some isolated shower activity. Winds will shift out of the south to
southeast during the afternoon. Over the Gulf, ESE winds look to
trend more southwesterly during the latter half of the day. Overall,
wave heights will be around 2 to 3 feet. Some thunderstorm activity
may spill into marine areas each afternoon, creating locally higher
seas and gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  91  79  91 /  30  60  20  70
West Kendall     75  92  76  92 /  30  70  20  80
Opa-Locka        78  93  79  93 /  30  60  30  80
Homestead        78  92  79  92 /  20  50  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  80  91 /  30  50  30  70
N Ft Lauderdale  78  91  79  91 /  30  50  30  70
Pembroke Pines   80  94  80  94 /  30  60  30  80
West Palm Beach  78  91  78  91 /  20  70  30  80
Boca Raton       78  90  79  90 /  20  50  30  70
Naples           77  91  78  91 /  30  60  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Baggett

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
1011 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 AM     Waterspout       2 E Ocean Ridge         26.53N 80.02W
07/02/2026                   AMZ650             FL   Broadcast Media

            Waterspout was reported east of Boynton
            Beach this morning.

&&

Fisher

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
1035 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 AM     Wildfire         2 WSW Tamarac           26.20N 80.30W
07/02/2026                   Broward            FL   Public

            The Atlantic fire has burned 5780 acres and
            is now at 95 percent contained.

&&

BNB