Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
400 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 357 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

  - Heat indices as high as 105-112 degrees expected each day
    through the end of the weekend.

  - Smoke from wildfire activity in central Miami-Dade county will
    continue to disperse across the region, mainly in Southeast
    Florida. Lower air quality from wildfire smoke can be
    hazardous to sensitive populations.

  - Increasing chances for widespread rain showers and
    thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

No major changes are anticipated in the short term with the
forecast, as the story continues moist and unstable airmass
resulting in daily pop-up thunderstorms while general overall
ridging over southern Florida prevents any strong storm motion as
well as any pattern regime changes. Storms have already developed
over portions of central and southern Florida, and will continue
through the daytime heating hours. Latest model runs continue to
indicate a surge tonight of precipitable water up to 2in across
the region, with widespread SBCAPE > 1000J/kg with some isolated
regions of 2000J/kg. Without a lack of any significant surface
flow, most storms will develop initially off of sea breeze
boundaries, and then off of outflow boundaries that develop. While
ridging is in place across the region, perturbations within the
flow have the potential to amplify some thunderstorms that develop
into stronger storms. While unlikely, some of these storms may
become marginally severe, with widespread DCAPE values > 1000J/kg.
Although there is plenty of moisture to work with and a lack of
storm motion, these storms will likely be short lived enough to
not generate any flooding concerns.

The other main concern over the next couple days continues to be
the heat, with high temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90s
as well as RH values ranging from the upper 80s along the coasts
to upper 90s to 100% inland. This will result in heat index values
varying from mid to upper 100s Saturday, to potentially reaching
low 110s values on Sunday. A Heat Advisory will continue for
Miami-Dade, Broward, and Collier counties will continue for today,
with heat headlines likely to extend into tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Hot conditions are expected to continue into the next week, with
100+ heat index values continuing across most of the region. In
general, the same weather pattern will continue through next week,
with upper level ridging and weak surface and upper air flow
resulting in daily thunderstorms off of sea breeze interactions.
Models still indicate mid-level RH values falling due to Saharan
dust, reducing precipitation chances in the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue Saturday through Sunday
morning, with southerly/southeasterly winds increasing along the
Atlantic coast, and westerly winds on the Gulf coast.
Thunderstorms are developing and ongoing across the region, and
can result in brief decreases in ceiling height, visibility, as
well as gusty and erratic winds at the surface. Smoke concerns
will continue in southeastern Florida with the ongoing wildfires.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Light southeasterly winds continue across the Atlantic waters today
with southerly to southwesterly winds over the Gulf. Tonight, winds
could veer from the north/northeast across all local waters before
settling back from the south on Sunday morning.  Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the local
waters each day with locally hazardous winds and seas possible with
any storms. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet or less outside of any
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Onshore flow continues through southern Florida, with light
southeasterly winds in southeastern Florida as well as light
southwesterly winds in southwestern Florida. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are developing and ongoing across southwestern
Florida, with additional storms expected throughout central and
southeastern Florida as the day progresses. Winds in the stronger
storms will become erratic and potentially gusty. Winds will
gradually decrease to light and variable overnight. Dispersions
will remain poor on Saturday, but will likely increase on Sunday.
RH values will remain well above critical values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  93  78  93 /  40  60  20  20
West Kendall     75  94  76  94 /  30  60  20  30
Opa-Locka        77  94  78  94 /  40  70  20  20
Homestead        78  93  79  93 /  30  50  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  78  92  79  92 /  40  60  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  77  91  79  91 /  40  70  20  20
Pembroke Pines   79  95  80  95 /  40  70  20  20
West Palm Beach  77  92  78  92 /  40  50  30  30
Boca Raton       77  91  79  91 /  40  60  30  20
Naples           78  91  78  93 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Zwink
LONG TERM....Zwink
AVIATION...Zwink

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
150 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

FLZ063-201830-
Glades FL-
150 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Glades
County through 230 PM EDT...

At 150 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Lakeport, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lakeport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2708 8112 2694 8109 2693 8125 2701 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 250DEG 10KT 2700 8122

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MFL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
248 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

FLZ073-201930-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
248 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Miami-Dade
County through 330 PM EDT...

At 248 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm 8 miles west of Intersection Krome And Kendall
Drive, or 9 miles northwest of The Redland, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
The Redland, Miccosukee Resort, and Intersection Krome And Kendall
Drive.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2555 8048 2557 8069 2571 8070 2578 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 251DEG 5KT 2565 8060

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MFL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
448 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

FLZ067-202130-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-
448 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Palm
Beach County through 530 PM EDT...

At 448 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm 7 miles southwest of Loxahatchee NWR, or 12
miles northwest of Coral Springs, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Loxahatchee NWR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8034 2636 8046 2649 8045 2645 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 195DEG 6KT 2641 8038

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MFL