Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
611 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

 - Heat stress indices will generally be a level 2 of 4 the next
   few days which could result in heat illness during prolonged
   exposure if precautions are not taken.

 - Hottest afternoons will be Sunday and Monday.

 - Rain chances remain high each day, with the exception of
   Saturday, when storms may be less numerous.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

We begin the period with a northern stream trough across the
Northeast and into the northwest Atlantic, a shortwave across the
Plains and Lower MS Valley, and a narrow negatively tilted ridge
axis from the Northern Plains down through the Southeast. At the
surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes, with a
frontal boundary extending from the northwestern Atlantic low,
through the Southeast, and connecting with the surface reflection
of the Plains shortwave. Locally we remain in a very moist
environment as SSW flow around the western periphery of the
Bermuda High advects tropical moisture across the Gulf and state
of Florida. Absent any deep layer forcing, we'll rely on the
seabreeze for today's convection. The generally westerly flow will
keep the Atlantic seabreeze pretty close to the coast today with
convective activity initiating along it around 17 or 18z. Storms
may become a little more robust and widespread as the Gulf breeze
reaches the east coast and boundary interactions prevail.
Additionally, because steering flow further up the Peninsula is
more northwesterly, we could actually get evening convection
moving into south Florida from the north after our more typical
seabreeze convection wraps up.

On Saturday, the Plains shortwave will advect through the
Southeast and spread some mid/upper dry air across the state.
There will still be enough low-level moisture to initiate
convection along the seabreezes, but it should be a bit more
suppressed due to the dry air aloft. Further, with steering flow
more purely out of the west throughout the state, we likely won't
have to worry about evening convection from the north. The focus
area for storms that are able to develop will be along the east
coast.

Max temperatures each afternoon will range from the upper 80s to
low 90s with heat indices in the low 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Uncertainty in the extended range revolves around how the omega
pattern across the CONUS breaks down. The global ensembles
generally agree on the strength and placement of the next northern
stream shortwave moving through the Northeast this weekend, as
well as the cutoff low across the western US. The differences
start to be introduced early next week as another shortwave dives
out of Quebec/Ontario and phases with the western US wave. It
appears these disagreements have little influence on the sensible
weather locally. Generally speaking, the eastern CONUS trough will
sag further down the Eastern Seaboard, pushing a frontal boundary
slowly into and through much of Florida.

The aforementioned Plains shortwave that moved through the
Southeast to start the weekend will exit into the Atlantic on
Saturday night and result in surface cyclogenesis in the western
Atlantic. While we may have some dry air aloft to contend with on
Sunday, at least along the east coast we should get some decent
moisture advection around the back side of the maturing low. With
WNW steering flow, expect the seabreeze to remain pinned across
the east coast and be relatively active. Again we'll have the
potential for convection moving out of central Florida in the
evening as well.

We'll moisten up across south Florida into early next week as the
front sags further south and moisture advection from the Gulf
increases.

Expect maximum temperatures to be the warmest on Sunday and
Monday, peaking in the lower 90s. This, plus the low-level
moisture, will help drive heat indices up closer to 105 each
afternoon. Slightly lower temperatures are expected as we head
towards mid-week as rain chances increase area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA is forecast to occur across the
eastern half of South Florida over the next several hours before
activity gradually decreases by 03-06z. Light and variable winds
are forecast overnight before winds enhance out of a west-north
westerly direction by daybreak on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

While winds across the Gulf are expected to be out of the west
today, the Atlantic will take another 12 hours or so to veer around
westerly. Then, gentle westerly winds will prevail (away from the
seabreeze) for the next several days. Low seas will prevail through
the weekend, but a northerly swell from high pressure building into
the western Atlantic may increase seas across the Gulf Stream early
next week. Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected over
the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  88  76  91 /  40  40  10  70
West Kendall     74  89  74  92 /  40  40  10  70
Opa-Locka        76  90  76  92 /  40  30  10  80
Homestead        76  89  77  91 /  40  40  10  70
Fort Lauderdale  77  88  77  90 /  30  30  10  70
N Ft Lauderdale  76  87  76  89 /  30  30  10  70
Pembroke Pines   77  91  77  93 /  30  30  10  70
West Palm Beach  76  89  77  90 /  30  30  10  80
Boca Raton       77  88  77  90 /  30  30  10  80
Naples           79  89  80  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...Hadi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
745 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

FLZ066-067-300015-
Hendry FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
745 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Hendry and
west central Palm Beach Counties through 815 PM EDT...

At 745 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Lake Harbor, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belle Glade, Pahokee, South Bay, Lake Harbor, Okeelanta, Belle Glade
Camp, and Fremd Village-Padgett Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2675 8053 2652 8072 2669 8094 2675 8088
      2673 8085 2670 8082 2670 8078 2669 8075
      2669 8074 2670 8072 2674 8073 2676 8075
      2678 8073 2675 8072 2674 8071 2676 8069
      2679 8070 2681 8069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 290DEG 12KT 2672 8078

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Fisher