Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Miami, FL

192 
WWUS52 KMFL 171909
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
309 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

FLC021-171930-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-260517T1930Z/
Collier FL-
309 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY...

At 309 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over North Naples,
or near Bonita Springs, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Naples, Golden Gate Estates, Naples Park, West Toll Gate On Alligator
Alley, Vineyards, Golden Gate, North Naples, East Naples, Pelican
Bay, and Quail Creek Estate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8184 2633 8182 2632 8182 2632 8166
      2615 8165 2615 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 346DEG 5KT 2625 8178 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Fisher

209 
WWUS52 KMFL 171923
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
323 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

FLC021-171933-
/O.EXP.KMFL.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-260517T1930Z/
Collier FL-
323 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, heavy
rain is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2633 8184 2633 8182 2632 8182 2632 8166
      2615 8165 2615 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 346DEG 5KT 2623 8178 

$$

Fisher

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
151 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

    - High risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches through
      tonight. The high risk of rip currents will expand across
      the rest of the east coast tomorrow morning.

    - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again
      Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly over the interior and
      Southwest Florida. Low chance of an isolated severe storm.

	- Temperatures will remain above normal through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Increased moisture is expected to filter into the region from the
Caribbean through the beginning of the week. Florida will find
itself in the middle of two regions of upper-level ridging, one over
the southern Gulf and one along the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile a
non-tropical disturbance of low pressure will begin to develop
over the Atlantic waters just east of the Bahamas. This will serve
to increase chances for showers across the Atlantic waters and
funnel in more low level moisture towards the peninsula. At the
surface, pressure gradients will tighten over the next couple days
across the Atlantic as an area of high pressure off the coast of
the Carolinas strengthens to around 1026 mb. This will result in
stronger easterly flow across the region, with sustained winds of
10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 28 mph. This stronger easterly flow
will keep the Gulf breeze pinned further west across southwest
Florida during the afternoon on Sunday and even more so on Monday.
Spotty showers will develop during the morning hours along the
Gulfstream and Florida bay, moving westward across the region.
However, most thunderstorm activity will focus along the sea
breeze convergence over interior and southwest Florida during the
afternoon. THe HRRR performed pretty well for Saturday's activity,
and with a similar environment for Sunday, feeling fairly
confident that the solution depicting 75% to 80% PoPs across the
Gulf coast will play out.

However, one factor that continues to be under-modeled by forecast
soundings is the amount of dry air in the mid levels. PWATs are
expected to climb to near 1.8 inches for Sunday and remain at that
level or slightly below for Monday. Due to nearby ridging aloft,
would expect some mid-level subsidence to once again suppress
thunderstorm growth from becoming strong. Yet, increasing MidRH
values should be more conducive for greater coverage of showers and
higher rainfall amounts. Once again, steep low level laps rates and
plenty of CAPE (near 3000 J/kg) will be favorable for a few stronger
storms, with gusty winds and locally heavy downpours being the main
concern. Unlike Saturday, there looks to be a little bit better
shear available for storms, between 15 to 25 kts, and with 500 mb
temperatures cooling down to -9 or -10 C, would not be surprised if
a few isolated severe storms develop for both Sunday and Monday.
With steering flow aloft being relatively weak and nearly opposite
to the low level wind pattern, some of these storms could be slow
moving. This would contribute to some heavier localized downpours
of 4 to 5 inches. For the most part, HREF ensemble PMMs are
depicting 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall across interior and
southwest Florida each afternoon from storm activity.

Widespread Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) is expected for the
beginning of the week. With slightly greater relative humidity, heat
indices will climb a few degrees area wide. Southwest Florida will
see heat indices in the lower 100s, while eastern areas will be in
the upper 90s. With storm activity in southwest Florida looking to
favor the latter half of the afternoon, temperatures should be able
to climb into the mid 90s for parts of Collier county. Overall,
temperatures look to be slightly above average for this time of
year. The NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool indicates low
chances of 20% to 30% for observing Major (level 3 of 4) heat
related impacts for parts of the Dade and Broward metros through
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

An upper-level ridge is expected to drape across the Florida
Peninsula for the middle of this week while expansive surface high
pressure over the western Atlantic remains stagnant in it's
position. The main item of interest in this mid-to-late week time
frame is increased jet stream dynamics on the downstream side of the
ridge leading to the development of an upper-level area of low
pressure near the Bahamas. The presence of this low is expected to
result in positive vorticity impulses advecting near or across South
Florida as well as envelopes of deeper moisture advection occurring
into South Florida. The end result are the chances for rain becoming
more uniform across the region, although given the low-level
easterly regime being ongoing the highest rain chances will still be
across Southwest Florida for the middle to end of this week.
Overall, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day through the end of this next week and into next
weekend.

Under the consistent easterly flow regime, high temperatures each
day will range from the upper 80s to low 90s for Southeast Florida
to the low to mid 90s for Southwest Florida. With consistent high
pressure, temperature fluctuations will not be substantial from day
to night and results in at least a moderate HeatRisk (Level 2 of 4)
each day especially near the coastal metro areas. This level of
HeatRisk is aimed at those who are sensitive to heat, especially
those without cooling or hydration. Chances increase to 30-50% for
major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4) to be observed Friday into this
weekend, which affects anyone without cooling or hydration and also
affects health systems and industries.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

SHRA/TSRA will focus across the western half of the region this
afternoon with gusty variable winds possible at KAPF throughout
the rest of the afternoon as activity develops and moves
northward. Light easterly flow prevails overnight with mainly VFR
conditions forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Easterly breezes will strengthen through the beginning of the week
along the Atlantic, with sustained wind speeds of 10 to 15 kts and
gusts up to 25 kts likely. A weaker westerly breeze will be likely
along the immediate Gulf each afternoon, but the predominant wind
regime shifts easterly over the Gulf as well. These breezier
conditions look to create some slightly choppier conditions, but
waters are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Sustained winds look to peak near 20 kts on Monday, with only a low
10% chance of winds being greater than 20 kts. Isolated weak showers
are possible for the Gulfstream waters through the morning. During
the afternoon, thunderstorms will favor the Gulf coast, beginning in
the Everglades and shifting northwestward through the early evening.
Chances of precipitation are expected to increase across Atlantic
waters heading into the middle of the week. Atlantic seas will be 2-
4 feet through the start of the week, while the Gulf will remain 2
feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Breezier conditions will lead to continued high risk of
rip currents for all Atlantic beaches to start the week. Guidance
continues to show increasing confidence for High Risk of Rip
Currents to persist through the middle of the week across the
Atlantic coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  87  78  87 /  30  40  30  30
West Kendall     75  89  75  89 /  30  50  20  30
Opa-Locka        78  89  78  89 /  20  50  30  30
Homestead        77  88  77  88 /  30  50  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  86  78  86 /  20  40  40  40
N Ft Lauderdale  78  86  78  86 /  20  40  40  40
Pembroke Pines   79  90  79  90 /  20  40  30  30
West Palm Beach  78  86  77  86 /  10  40  30  50
Boca Raton       79  86  78  86 /  10  40  40  50
Naples           74  93  75  93 /  20  80  10  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Hadi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1117 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

FLZ074-173-171600-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
1117 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Miami-Dade
County through NOON EDT...

At 1117 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Pinecrest, or near Coral Gables, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Coral Gables, South Miami, Kendall, Pinecrest, Sweetwater,
Westchester, Glenvar Heights, Richmond Heights, Country Walk,
Palmetto Bay, Cutler Bay, University Of Miami, Zoo Miami, West
Perrine, Olympia Heights, West Kendall, Sunset, The Crossings,
University Park, and Kendale Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2570 8026 2569 8026 2564 8028 2563 8028
      2563 8030 2562 8030 2561 8031 2559 8031
      2557 8030 2556 8031 2563 8046 2577 8036
      2571 8025
TIME...MOT...LOC 1517Z 120DEG 7KT 2564 8029

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR