Extreme Cold Warning 1, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
657 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 653 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

    - The odds of significant cold, coastal, and marine impacts
      across South Florida this weekend continues to increase.

    - An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for the Lake Okeechobee
      region and coastal Palm beach County and a Freeze Watch is
      in effect for inland Collier, Miami Dade and Broward
      counties. Wind chills could drop into the 20s across all of
      South Florida early Sunday morning.

    - Very breezy conditions are expected on Saturday afternoon
      through early Sunday morning as the strong cold front pushes
      through the area. Sustained winds 15-25 mph could gust up to
      40 mph, with highest winds likely along the immediate
      coastlines.

    - A Gale Watch is in effect for local waters beginning on
      Saturday afternoon and evening. Sustained winds of 30-40
      knots with higher gusts is possible across the Atlantic and
      Gulf waters through Sunday afternoon. Wave heights could
      peak as high as 12 feet across the Gulf and Atlantic waters
      during the day on Sunday as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

A weak area of low pressure slides across the peninsula today
leading to an enhanced chance for showers, especially along the east
coast areas. Rainfall is not expected to be widespread, however it
will be a mainly cloudy day with off and on showers through the
afternoon and evening hours. On Saturday, the area of low pressure
enters the western Atlantic and will rapidly begin to deepen. The
frontal boundary associated with this system will approach the area
during the morning hours, and should pass through the peninsula by
the late afternoon. Surface winds will dramatically increase ahead
of, and immediately behind the front. By around sunset time, strong
northwest winds will overspread the entire area between 15-25 mph
with isolated gusts to 40 mph possible. Conditions across local
waters are expected to become treacherous through this time
period as well, with wind gusts up to 50 kts possible heading
towards the Gulf Stream. It definitely is not a weekend to be on
the water in a small craft.

Mild temperatures are expected through the short term period with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s to
50s. The significant cooldown arrives on Sunday morning, which will
be discussed in the long term section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

The coolest and driest air mass of the season thus far arrives early
Sunday morning with potentially widespread freezing or near freezing
low temperatures across South Florida. Northwest flow prevails
behind the strong front, which will advect a dry arctic continental
air mass down the Florida peninsula all day on Sunday. Sunday night
into Monday morning could be just as cold as cold air advection is
maximized, and maritime modification to the air mass is minimized,
or nearly non-existent. A Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for the
Lake Okeechobee region and Coastal Palm beach County. A Freeze Watch
extends from interior Collier County to interior Broward and Miami
Dade Counties. These will likely be transitioned to Extreme Cold
Warnings and Freeze warnings over the coming 24 hours, with Cold
Weather Advisories all but guaranteed for the coastal areas of SE
Florida not currently covered by a cold hazard. Afternoon high
temperatures on Sunday and Monday may not reach much higher than the
mid 50s. Confidence is increasing that this could be the coldest
Arctic snap across South Florida since December 2010. Temperatures
begin to rebound on Tuesday morning but will still dip into the
lower 30s to lower 40s across all of South Florida although Tuesday
afternoon we may finally be able to reach the 60s during the
afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures (finally) are
able to climb back into the 70s.

While the anomalous temperature forecast continues to steal the
show, surface winds behind this cold front will be quite significant
as well. Winds will increase out of the northwest on Saturday
afternoon between 15-25 mph over land with potential gusts to around
40 mph through Sunday morning. A Wind Advisory is not out of the
question for this time period, and this potential will continue to
be monitored. Regardless, it would be wise to secure any light
outdoor objects that may become projectiles prior to this weekend.

Visit our website for graphical temperature forecasts (hover over
'Forecast' and then click 'Cold Weather' OR 'Other Probabilistic
Forecast Graphics'). Describing temperatures across every part of
the forecast area through text is a bit clunky and images make the
message much clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period today.
Light winds today will gradually increase out of the northwest as
the day progresses. A few isolated showers will be possible
throughout the day, so we'll continue to carry VCSH, but
confidence regarding impacts remains low so we did not introduce
TEMPOs this cycle. Nevertheless, they could be needed later today.
Light and variable winds again overnight, then winds begin to
increase out of the WNW tomorrow as a cold front moves across the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Conditions across local waters continue to improve today before they
will once again rapidly deteriorate on Saturday. NNE flow will range
around 10-15 kts today. Friday night into early Saturday, winds will
veer to a more westerly direction across all local waters increasing
to 30-40 kts by late Saturday night. Gusts during this time period
could reach 40-50 kts. A Gale Watch is in effect for all local
waters which will likely be transitioned to a Gale Warning on
Friday. Wave heights will peak with the winds late Saturday night
into early sunday warning with heights of 10-12 feet across both
Gulf and Atlantic waters. Winds and waves will slowly subside
through the afternoon and evening on Sunday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches
through the end of the week. Rip current probabilities are poised to
increase behind a cold front passage late this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            70  55  68  36 /  40  10  30  10
West Kendall     71  50  70  32 /  40  10  20   0
Opa-Locka        71  55  68  34 /  40  10  30  10
Homestead        72  55  71  37 /  50  10  20   0
Fort Lauderdale  70  55  67  34 /  40  20  30   0
N Ft Lauderdale  70  55  67  34 /  30  20  30   0
Pembroke Pines   71  54  70  34 /  40  20  30  10
West Palm Beach  71  53  66  32 /  30  20  30   0
Boca Raton       71  54  68  34 /  30  20  30  10
Naples           70  55  66  37 /  10  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning
     for FLZ063-066>068-168.

     Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     FLZ063-066>068-070-071-073-168.

AM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
     for AMZ610.

     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for
     AMZ630.

     Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for
     AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...ATV