Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1159 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- A Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms overnight
  mainly north of I-40. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
  threats.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM through 8 PM CDT
  Thursday, with heat index values expected to range between 105
  to 109 degrees.

- A transition to a zonal/northwest flow regime late this week
  will bring drier air and cooler temperatures for the weekend,
  providing relief from the oppressive heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

GOES Water Vapor satellite trends finally show convective
initiation occurring over portions of southern Missouri and north
central Arkansas late this evening as a mid-level shortwave moves
across the Middle Mississippi Valley. Latest short-term model
soundings and mesoanalysis indicates this upstream activity is
elevated with a low-level inversion in place and convective
inhibition. The convective parameter space shows strong
instability with MLCAPE values between 2000-4000 J/kg, and DCAPE
values around 1000 J/kg. Additionally, effective shear in excess
of 40 kts, moderately steep mid-level lapse rates above 6.5 C/km,
0-3 km storm relative helicity values between 150-200 m2/s2, and
precipitable water values approaching 2 inches is located across
northern portions of the Mid-South.

Short-term models have struggled to resolve the development and
propagation of this activity overnight across the area. Short-
term trends and upward propagation vectors suggest this mixed
mode activity of multicell clusters and perhaps some
supercellular-like structures will eventually propagate southeast
towards the Tennessee River overnight. Damaging winds and large
hail are the primary severe weather threats with low confidence
in tornado development occurring across this area due to the
elevated nature of the convection. Localized heavy rainfall is
also possible with the high precipitable water values. Further
south, confidence is much lower with any convective activity
occurring closer to the TN/MS border.

Very hot temperatures are expected again across the Mid-South
Thursday southwest of the nearly stalled surface boundary over
portions of east Arkansas and north Mississippi where
temperatures will rise to the upper 90s once again. These very
hot temperatures combined with dewpoints in the 70s will
translate to heat index values between 105 to 109 degrees with a
Heat Advisory remaining in effect across these areas. Heat index
values may approach advisory criteria in the Memphis metro area.
However, confidence is limited as outflow boundaries from
upstream convection may lower surface dewpoints below advisory
criteria.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible south of I-
40 on Thursday as the boundary moves through as a weak cold
front. Strong instability and weak shear may result in a few
severe thunderstorms over north Mississippi during peak heating
with damaging winds as the main threat.

Long-term models indicate slightly cooler air will gradually
arrive later this weekend into early next week as a mid-level
trough settles in across the eastern U.S. Heat advisory potential
will remain limited to the southwest portion of the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms remain north of the TN/KY border as of
11PM Wednesday. Additional activity is attempting to pop over
northeast AR, but a strong capping inversion is hampering upscale
growth. Given uncertainty in overnight trends, opted to keep
PROB30 groups in at JBR, MKL, and MEM. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will remain with southerly winds veering north by the end of the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

An overall low fire weather risk will hold over the next three
days. While temperatures remain hot, light winds and adequate
moisture levels will keep critical fire weather conditions under
control. Rainfall through Thursday will result in the development
of fog late Thursday night east of the Mississippi river.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ048-049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ007-008-
     010>017-020>024.

TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
311 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

TNZ003-004-019>021-051-052-054-200845-
Carroll TN-Henderson TN-Weakley TN-Madison TN-Crockett TN-Henry TN-
Dyer TN-Gibson TN-
311 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CROCKETT...SOUTHERN
WEAKLEY...NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN DYER...GIBSON...
WESTERN CARROLL...NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND SOUTHWESTERN HENRY
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 AM CDT...

At 311 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Trenton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Humboldt, Milan, Lexington, McKenzie, Trenton, Huntingdon, Fairview,
Dyer, Greenfield, Three Way, Rutherford, Bradford, Atwood, Blue
Goose, Bargerton, Eaton, Carroll, Medina, Trezevant, and Friendship.

This includes Interstate 40 in Tennessee between mile markers 89 and
105.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 8929 3616 8922 3620 8843 3561 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 266DEG 25KT 3599 8896

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

AEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
331 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Steele              36.12N 89.85W
08/20/2026                   Pemiscot           MO   Public

            Tree snapped near Gibson.

&&

CJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
340 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

TNZ020>022-052-054-055-200930-
Carroll TN-Henderson TN-Madison TN-Benton TN-Decatur TN-Gibson TN-
340 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HENDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN
GIBSON...SOUTHERN BENTON...CARROLL...NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND
NORTHERN DECATUR COUNTIES THROUGH 430 AM CDT...

At 340 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Atwood, or 8 miles southwest of Huntingdon, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Humboldt, Milan, Lexington, Huntingdon, Camden, Natchez Trace State
Park, Natchez Trace State Forest, Parsons, Three Way, Bruceton,
Atwood, Reagan, Blue Goose, Vale, Bargerton, Wildersville, Parkers
Crossroads, Darden, Medina, and Scotts Hill.

This includes Interstate 40 in Tennessee between mile markers 90 and
134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 8794 3583 8797 3577 8798 3572 8803
      3570 8803 3545 8833 3547 8836 3549 8836
      3549 8839 3585 8895 3615 8836 3615 8822
      3612 8821 3613 8820 3599 8801 3597 8802
      3594 8801 3594 8794 3593 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 288DEG 37KT 3592 8853

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
426 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

TNZ021-022-054-055-201015-
Carroll TN-Henderson TN-Benton TN-Decatur TN-
426 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...SOUTHERN
BENTON...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND DECATUR COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM
CDT...

At 425 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles south of Hurricane Mills to 7 miles
northwest of Linden to near Darden. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Camden, Natchez Trace State Park, Natchez Trace State Forest,
Parsons, Decaturville, Parkers Crossroads, Darden, Wildersville,
Montgomery, Scotts Hill, Clarksburg, Dollar, Busseltown, Jeannette,
Haney, Holladay, Mount Tabor, Sugar Tree, Red Walnut, and Cozette.

This includes Interstate 40 in Tennessee between mile markers 108 and
134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 8794 3583 8797 3578 8798 3572 8803
      3566 8802 3562 8804 3552 8797 3549 8798
      3546 8804 3543 8804 3543 8818 3588 8846
      3600 8800 3597 8802 3595 8802 3594 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0925Z 315DEG 33KT 3578 8775 3565 8796 3564 8829

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
444 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

TNZ020>022-052-054-201015-
Carroll TN-Henderson TN-Madison TN-Benton TN-Gibson TN-
444 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HENDERSON...
SOUTHEASTERN GIBSON...WESTERN BENTON...CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM CDT...

At 444 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Milan, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Humboldt, Milan, Lexington, Trenton, Huntingdon, Natchez Trace State
Park, Natchez Trace State Forest, Bradford, Atwood, Bargerton,
Wildersville, Parkers Crossroads, Medina, Trezevant, Gibson,
Clarksburg, McLemoresville, Hickory Flat, Tuckers Corner, and Dollar.

This includes Interstate 40 in Tennessee between mile markers 95 and
117.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8831 3589 8903 3610 8889 3597 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 0944Z 284DEG 39KT 3590 8873

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
521 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

TNZ021-022-054-055-201100-
Carroll TN-Henderson TN-Benton TN-Decatur TN-
521 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...
SOUTHERN BENTON...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND NORTHERN DECATUR COUNTIES
THROUGH 600 AM CDT...

At 521 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of New Johnsonville, or 13 miles northeast of Natchez
Trace State Park, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Huntingdon, Parkers Crossroads, Clarksburg, Westport, Hillard,
Dollar, Jumbo, Jeannette, I-40 Near The Tennessee River, Scott Hill,
Holladay, Leach, Sugar Tree, Tate, Garretsburg, Palmer Shelter, Yuma,
Cozette, and Buena Vista.

This includes Interstate 40 in Tennessee between mile markers 110 and
134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 8794 3583 8797 3578 8798 3576 8799
      3572 8803 3570 8803 3568 8802 3569 8804
      3585 8854 3603 8846 3596 8802 3595 8802
      3594 8800 3594 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1021Z 286DEG 22KT 3584 8805

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JAB