Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1244 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- A Slight Risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms is in place Monday
  afternoon, mainly south of the I-40 corridor, with a threat for
  very large hail (up to 2 inches) and damaging winds.

- The active pattern continues through midweek, with severe storm
  chances both Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Near-normal temperatures return by the end of the week with dry
  conditions persisting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

GOES East Low Level Water Vapor channel reveals a compact
shortwave traversing central Arkansas with a deep cutoff upper
low over the Baja Peninsula. At the surface, the latest analysis
places a NW to SE oriented warm front from Corning, AR southeast
through Memphis, TN, and back into Tupelo, MS. The latest GOES
East Visible Imagery shows some clearing behind the front, mainly
over SE Arkansas and portions of N Mississippi. In that area, the
latest RAP mesoanalysis data shows an uncapped atmosphere with
both moderate instability (1200 J/kg of MUCAPE) and moderate
shear (0-6 km shear 35-40 knots) in place. This environment
supports mainly organized multi-cells and potential bowing
structures. Lapse rates aloft are quite impressive with values
above 7.5 C/km between 700 and 500mb. If cells can remain semi-
discrete, large hail up to 2 inches is likely, otherwise
organized cold pools will become the main mode with damaging
winds and marginally severe hail.

The latest KNQA radar scan reveals scattered WAA showers across
the area with a single non-severe storm moving into eastern
Arkansas. To the west, multi-cellular and semi-discrete cells
have been prevalent this morning from the ArkLaTex into the
Little Rock, AR metro. Storm motion has been nearly due east with
storm speeds as high as 55 mph. One report of nickel to quarter
size hail has been reported thus far. There is some evidence of
an organizing cold pool to the northeast of the Little Rock, AR
metro, but storms have remained mostly elevated and sub-severe
thus far.

Downstream and over the Mid-South, the atmosphere will continue
to destabilize over the next 1 to 3 hours. The current SPC
outlook covers the threat well, with a Slight Risk (2/5) located
along the TN/MS stateline and to the south. There is a CIG1 for
large hail 2+ inches, which is well supported by steep lapse
rates aloft and moderate deep layer shear. The latest HRRR
guidance suggests that instability will remain moderate over the
area as MLCAPE values climb to as high as 1500 J/kg over portions
of north Mississippi. Looking more closely at the soundings,
storms could become more surface-based, which would enhance the
damaging wind threat. Storms will affect areas along and south of
I-40 through about 8PM this evening.

We will see a break from showers and thunderstorms for about
24 hours as upper level heights build in wake of the passing
shortwave. Moderate WAA will persist on Tuesday as a weakening
surface low tracks across Kansas City, MO during the day. Out to
the west, the aforementioned cutoff low will begin to lift
northeast and open into a positively-tilted longwave trough as it
moves into west Texas late Tuesday. Weak perturbations, embedded
in deep southwesterly flow aloft, will rotate into the Lower
Mississippi Valley late Tuesday night. With moderate instability,
a strengthening LLJ, and moderate shear in place, a couple of
strong to severe thunderstorms will  develop over central
Arkansas. There is a 30% chance that these strong to severe
storms move into northeast Arkansas late Tuesday night. The main
threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The threat should
diminish early Wednesday morning.

Active weather will continue again on Wednesday as we remain in a
moderately unstable airmass. A split-flow upper level pattern
will be prevalent over the Plains with a potential leading
shortwave moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley early
Wednesday morning. Significant uncertainty still remains as heavy
cloud cover and potentially ongoing convection occurs in the warm
sector. Nonetheless, a high shear and low to moderate instability
setup will occur. The highest chance for severe thunderstorms
will be mainly east of the Mississippi River, where instability
will be maximized by early afternoon and before the cold front
pushes through the area. This is supported well by the REFS
guidance, as it paints an instability axis along the east of the
Mississippi River with up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE with up to
60 knots of bulk shear on hand. Uncertainty remains medi than
expected at this time.

A trailing cold front will push through the entire area late
Wednesday ending the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. A
brief cooldown is expected on Thursday with highs mainly in the
low to mid 50s. Temperatures will rebound by late week as broad
surface high pressure moves into the region. Above normal
temperatures will persist into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A warm front lifting north is supporting TSRA development across
the airspace. Convection will continue to move east- southeast
through the taf period and end at the terminals shortly after
00z. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lowering of CIGs and
visibility is expected at all terminals when thunderstorms move
over the field.

Once rainfall comes to an end, MVFR and IFR ceilings will persist
through daybreak. Improvement of cloud heights will occur, but
MVFR ceilings will still prevail after 12z. Gusty southerly winds
will prevail again tomorrow afternoon.

TUP TAF will carry an AMD NOT SKED. TUP METAR is missing some
weather elements.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Occasionally gusty winds up to 20 mph will occur each day this
week. However, widespread wetting rainfall will increase fuel
moisture and maintain elevated relative humidity, limiting fire
weather concerns.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...DNM

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