Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide through today as heat
  indices in excess of 105F are expected. The Heat Advisory has
  been extended to portions along and west of the Mississippi
  River for Sunday as well.

- Hot and humid conditions will remain through much of next week,
  though heat indices may linger closer to 100F as our heat dome
  continues to push east.

- Daily thunderstorm chances will remain each day across the
  Mid-South, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.
  The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds and heavy
  downpours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Hot and humid conditions will continue through our holiday
weekend with an areawide Heat Advisory in place across the entire
Mid-South through 8PM today. This past week's 595dam ridge will
continue to deamplify east heading into early next week as weak
troughing continues to push over our area from the west.
Beginning tomorrow, daily high temperatures will edge closer to
climatological norms with readings in the lower 90s as a weak
cold front dips into the Middle Mississippi Valley. An uptick in
convective coverage is also anticipated tomorrow as shortwave
troughing continues to push into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
However, as we remain in this summertime pattern, overall
coverage will be more isolated to scattered in nature. Due to
this sparse coverage and dewpoints remaining in the mid 70s,
today's heat advisory has been extended for areas along and west
of the Mississippi River, where moisture pulling is expected to
be maximized tomorrow.

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances, peaking in the afternoon
and early evening hours, will exist today and into next workweek
as the aforementioned ridge continues to deamplify and peak
daytime heating occurs. Digging into parameter spacing for today,
we're looking very similar to the past several days with around
4,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and MLCAPE, mid-level lapse rates around
6.0 C/km, a microburst composite around 8-10, DCAPE around
1000 J/kg, and practically no shear. With hardly any synoptic
support, any strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
early evening will be diurnally enhanced with heavy downpours, as
PWATs are around 2.1", nearing the 90th percentile for this time
of the year, and damaging wind gusts. A Marginal Risk is in place
for areas along and west of the Mississippi River today. Keep
this in mind with holiday festivities this evening.

As previously mentioned, convective coverage is expected to be
slightly increased tomorrow as shortwave troughing continues to
push east towards the Mississippi Valley. In accordance with
forecast soundings, tomorrow, we do look to finally have some
effective shear, on the order of around 25 kts, with around
2000 J/kg of SB and MLCAPE, PWATs around 2.1", DCAPE around
1000 J/kg, and mid-level lapse rates around 5.8 C/km. The best
parameter spacing and overall coverage looks to maximize mainly
east of the Mississippi River. Once again, damaging wind gusts
and heavy downpours will be the main concerns with any strong to
severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into early evening.

As we move through next workweek, weak troughing will continue to
push over the Mississippi Valley as a subtropical ridge begins to
build over the southern Rockies. Temperatures are expected to
remain near normal with highs in the low 90s. Though, as moisture
remains over the Mid-South, due to embedded shortwave
perturbations, dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are anticipated to
remain. Triple digit heat indices will likely be witnessed
through much of next week. With a northwest flow regime, daily
shower and thunderstorm chances will remain each day through at
least midweek. Depending on how far east the aforementioned
subtropical builds will greatly influence rain chances in the
latter half of the workweek as northwest flow could be shoved
further east, past the Mid-South.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Similar to the past several days, afternoon and early evening
TSRA remain the primary concern. Relative to Friday, today's
higher TSRA probabilities warrant a TEMPO at JBR and MEM, while
MKL and TUP retain PROB30.

Last several runs of the HRRR model have trended away from
developing overnight TSRA. The main aviation weather impact will
more likely be a predawn potential for MVFR VIS at MKL and TUP,
per GLAMP, NBM and HRRR guidance.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low across the Mid-South through at
least early next week as minimum relative humidity values remain
at or above 40 percent. 20ft wind speeds will remain generally
light . Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
remain in the forecast each day.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-
     020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009-
     013>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>003-019-020-
     048>051-088-089.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ004-021-022-
     052>055-090>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB

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