Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
631 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather today
  across northeast Mississippi and a continued Marginal Risk (1
  out of 5) across the remainder of the Mid-South. Damaging wind
  gusts and heavy rainfall are the main concerns. A Flash Flood
  Watch is in effect through 7 PM this evening for portions of
  east and northeast Arkansas, West Tennessee, and north
  Mississippi.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorms chances will continue for the
  foreseeable future, with high temperatures remaining in the mid
  80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

As of 10:30 PM, convective activity remains minimal over the Mid-
South. This is likely due to a strong EML present on the 00Z
soundings from OHX and JAN. A different environment is taking
shape just to our northwest where a weaker EML is beginning to
erode. Storms continue to fire over southern Missouri, quickly
growing upscale and posing a damaging wind and large hail threat.
The forecast for the next several hours remains tricky due to
discrepancies in model guidance. The latest WoFS run keeps storms
out of the Mid-South through 1AM, favoring rapid dissipation of
the current storms over southern Missouri. This scenario is not
out of the question given that storms would need to overcome a
stronger EML along with decreasing instability and shear to
maintain strength. On the other hand, several CAMs hold onto
storms longer than the WoFS with damaging winds becoming the main
concern over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel.
Regardless of which scenario manifests, there is a nonzero chance
for severe storms through the overnight hours, though the main
concern area will lie west of the Mississippi River. The
evolution of tonight's storms will determine our severe weather
chances for Monday. As of now, the most likely scenario is
ongoing convection in the morning with storms reinvigorating in
the afternoon south of I-40. This is corroborated by the 00Z
suite of CAMs. However, midlevel lapse rates around 5 C/km will
greatly hinder upscale storm growth. Given uncertainty in
environmental parameters and evolution of convection, the
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) remains the best outlook for severe
storms. Should storms become severe in the afternoon, damaging
winds will be the primary concern. One additional facet to watch
on Monday will be the potential for localized flooding.
Anomalously high precipitable water values will produce efficient
rainfall rates, meaning storms will be able to dump large amounts
of precipitation in a short period of time. Should these storms
begin to train over the same area, rivers and streams may quickly
rise to bankfull. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall exists
areawide on Monday, highlighting the flooding potential.

The remainder of the work week will be defined by disturbances
moving within northwest flow aloft. This pattern will bring daily
shots at showers and storms, though greater precipitation chances
look to arrive in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe. Severe
weather probabilities remain less than 20 percent for the rest of
the week. Instead, localized flooding will become the greater
concern depending on where the greatest precipitation axis
develops. The latest ensemble guidance keeps an areawide rainfall
total of 1.5 to 2.5 inches through Friday evening. However,
higher amounts are anticipated given prolific rainfall producing
storms throughout the week. A localized flooding threat is
anticipated each day and we will continue to monitor these trends
in future forecast updates. Long range guidance is beginning to
suggest an end to the unsettled weather this weekend with both
the GFS and ECMWF favoring upper level ridging building into the
Mid-South. Should this occur, dry and hot conditions would be
anticipated for the end of June.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A mature Mesoscale Convective System is expected to move east-
southeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley today. This will
bring a prolonged period of showers and embedded thunderstorms to
TAF sites into this afternoon. Forecasts were adjusted to align
with higher confidence timing of thunderstorm impacts this
morning, while maintaining lower confidence regarding convective
coverage this afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to
prevail with a gradual improvement to VFR conditions towards late
afternoon/early evening. Latest guidance indicates a low to
medium (20-40%) chance of MVFR ceilings developing late tonight
at TUP and MKL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms, along with MinRH values
over 40%, will negate fire weather concerns for the foreseeable
future.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ026>028-035-036-048-049.

MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ001>003-007-008.

TN...Flood Watch through this evening for TNZ048>050-088>090.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CJC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
814 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     Flash Flood      3 E Greenfield          35.68N 90.66W
06/22/2026                   Poinsett           AR   Broadcast Media

            Flash flooding occurring near Trumann
            Elementary school.

&&

DNM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
845 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 AM     Flash Flood      Caraway                 35.76N 90.34W
06/22/2026                   Craighead          AR   Amateur Radio

            Car stuck in water at gas station in
            Caraway.

&&

AC3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
856 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

ARZ027-035-036-048-049-MSZ001-007-TNZ049-088-221430-
Poinsett AR-St. Francis AR-Cross AR-Lee AR-Crittenden AR-Tunica MS-
DeSoto MS-Tipton TN-Shelby TN-
856 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LEE...ST. FRANCIS...
SOUTHEASTERN POINSETT...CRITTENDEN...CROSS...NORTHWESTERN DESOTO...
NORTHWESTERN TUNICA...SOUTHWESTERN TIPTON AND WESTERN SHELBY COUNTIES
THROUGH 930 AM CDT...

At 855 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Colt to Simsboro.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
West Memphis, Forrest City, Marion, Millington, Wynne, Earle, Hughes,
Parkin, Madison, Palestine, Village Creek State Park, T O Fuller
State Park, Meeman Shelby Forest State Park, Memphis, Cherry Valley,
Caldwell, Crawfordsville, Edmondson, Colt, and Horseshoe Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 227 and 284.
 Interstate 40 in Tennessee between mile markers 1 and 5.
 Interstate 240 between mile markers 29 and 30.
 Interstate 55 in Arkansas between mile markers 1 and 28.
 Interstate 55 in Tennessee between mile markers 8 and 12.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 9104 3548 9066 3547 9029 3544 9029
      3544 9026 3545 9013 3529 8987 3472 9038
      3493 9100 3508 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 224DEG 35KT 3518 9083 3500 9040

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CMA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
857 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     Flash Flood      3 E Greenfield          35.68N 90.66W
06/22/2026                   Poinsett           AR   Amateur Radio

            Intersection of Highways 69 and 163 is
            underwater.

&&

AC3

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
859 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 AM     Rain             1 SW Caraway            35.75N 90.35W
06/22/2026  M6.25 Inch       Craighead          AR   Public

&&

AC3