Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1237 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast mainly
  across central Arkansas and north Mississippi this afternoon.

- A warm front will lift north through the area on Saturday,
  spreading chances for showers and thunderstorms northward across
  most of Mid-South.

- A couple of upper-level disturbances and an approaching cold
  front will result in higher chances for showers and
  thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A dry, albeit a bit humid, day is progressing across the Mid-
South this Friday. A weak frontal boundary has stalled just south
of the area, keeping shower and thunderstorm activity to our
south. While an isolated storm could creep into our far southern
counties along the boundary by the afternoon, confidence is
overall low and most of the Mid-South will likely remain dry
through the remainder of the day. Overnight, dew point
depressions will be fairly low across north Mississippi with
generally light winds. While cloud coverage could inhibit any
dense fog, I would not be surprised if some localized, patchy fog
were to develop near bodies of water near sunrise. By Saturday, a
warm front will slowly begin to lift back through the Mid-South,
with increased shower and thunderstorm chances by the afternoon.
Coverage will likely remain fairly isolated north of the TN/MS
stateline, with better, scattered chances across north Mississippi
mainly in the afternoon. Coverage will quickly begin to wane
following sunset. As far as temperatures go, high temperatures
will remain generally in the mid 80s both today (Friday) and on
Saturday.

By Sunday, the entire Mid-South will be fully in the warm sector
with the aforementioned warm front moving north of the area. This
will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
through the daytime, although the better coverage would likely be
diurnally driven in the afternoon. By the evening to overnight
hours, a decaying MCS will be moving out of Missouri bringing a
line of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South. There is
still significant uncertainty with this system, with the majority
of CAMs just now coming into range. Joint probabilities of
conducive severe weather ingredients are in the 30 to 40% range
generally along and north of the I-40 corridor by Sunday evening,
thus conditions could be favorable for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms. As such, far northwest portions of the Mid-South
are included in a Slight Risk (2/5) area with those along and
north of I-40 elsewhere in a Marginal Risk (1/5). More clarity
should be coming as additional CAMs come into range. Beyond
Sunday into early next week, the Mid-South will remain in a quasi-
zonal to subtle northwesterly flow aloft, keeping us in a
favorable environment for at least daily scattered thunderstorm
chances. High temperatures through this period will generally
remain at to just below normal, with highs spanning the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions and northerly flow prevail at the beginning of the
18z cycle. A few showers and thunderstorms are approaching the MS
Delta region, so a PROB30 was introduced at TUP. Fog, however,
appears likely late tonight at TUP where a TEMPO was introduced.
A warm front will lift north across the region tomorrow bringing
shower and thunderstorm chances as well as lowering of ceilings.
Timing and exact location of the boundary are still uncertain, so
PROB30s cover this well. Expect worsening conditions beginning
Saturday morning.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH
values will remain over 40% with a typical, humid summertime
pattern. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are in the
forecast through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...DNM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
346 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

ARZ058-MSZ010-011-020-192115-
Phillips AR-Coahoma MS-Tallahatchie MS-Quitman MS-
346 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PHILLIPS...SOUTHERN
COAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TALLAHATCHIE AND SOUTHWESTERN QUITMAN COUNTIES
THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dublin, or 11 miles south of Clarksdale, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksdale, White River National Wildlife Refuge, Tutwiler, Webb,
Sumner, Dublin, Vance, Sherard, Crumrod, Mattson, Rena Lara, Mosby
Spur, Ferguson, Counts, Denton, Beverly, Brazil, Lurand, Beaver Dam,
and Albin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3414 9108 3419 9109 3422 9106 3425 9108
      3425 9106 3428 9108 3430 9107 3429 9106
      3431 9106 3413 9018 3381 9031 3381 9045
      3399 9045 3399 9066 3412 9066 3412 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 282DEG 36KT 3403 9057

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Schlessiger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
413 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

ARZ058-MSZ010-011-020-192145-
Phillips AR-Coahoma MS-Tallahatchie MS-Quitman MS-
413 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PHILLIPS...SOUTHERN
COAHOMA...TALLAHATCHIE AND SOUTHERN QUITMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM
CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dublin, or 11 miles northeast of Shelby, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksdale, Charleston, Tutwiler, Webb, Sumner, Paynes, Dublin,
Vance, Sherard, Crumrod, Glendora, Mattson, Rena Lara, Mosby Spur,
Ferguson, Counts, Distall, Swan Lake, Denton, and Beverly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3414 9108 3422 9106 3429 9107 3412 8997
      3381 9007 3381 9014 3372 9014 3374 9024
      3369 9027 3372 9031 3375 9029 3376 9019
      3381 9018 3381 9045 3399 9045 3399 9066
      3412 9066 3412 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 267DEG 35KT 3402 9058

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Schlessiger