Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
  evening and may continue into the overnight hours Sunday
  morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern and heavy
  rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Mississippi Delta through
  8PM today for heat indices above 105 degrees.

- Cooler air arrives Sunday, with temperatures falling into the
  mid-70s to low 80s for Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

KNQA is just beginning to pick up what will become our first of
two rounds of strong to severe storms this evening/overnight.
CAMs are really struggling to resolve the timing of the first
round; discrepancies up to 6 hours are noted between the HRRR and
the FV3. It's hard to describe one as an outlier over another
since the entire suite of short-term models all has a vastly
different solution for timing and locations affected. Taking a
more ensemble approach to the forecast leads us to a general
window of about 4PM to 11PM for the initial push of quasi-
linearly organized storms along the first surface boundary. These
storms will only have about 30 kts of bulk shear to work with
(weak to mid-range), but with DCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg
north of I-40, strong downdrafts will be a primary threat on the
leading edge. There is a secondary threat of large hail, but
confidence is much lower for this.

Similar to Friday's torrential downpours, PWATs over 2 inches
will support extremely efficient rainfall-producers tonight. This
is nearing the upper echelon of climatology for moisture in the
column, which will manifest in heavy rainfall rates. Areas that
received 4+ inches of rainfall Friday (Paris TN, Memphis TN, Lexa
AR) will be particularly vulnerable to flooding.  While this
first boundary is fairly progressive in its forward propagation,
the storm motions along the boundary itself may result in
training storms. If this happens, flash flooding will emerge as
another primary threat. After the first wave of showers and
thunderstorms, model consensus diverges again. The HRRR is really
the only CAM that simulates another bonafide line of storms
holding together this far east in the 2AM to 6AM time frame along
the actual cold front. Most other models confine that second
round to the ArkLaTex region overnight, keeping just a few
straggling showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Mid-South.
Due to the noteworthy uncertainty, we will continue to message
the possibility of two distinct rounds, noting that confidence is
lower for the overnight round.

With hot and muggy conditions on deck this afternoon ahead of the
front, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the MS Delta through
8PM. There was a low chance (20-30%) of meeting the 105 degree
heat index criteria for Memphis and a few surrounding counties,
but given the anecdotal evidence of heat indices being
overestimated in the NBM the last few days, opted to leave the
metro out and focus on the Delta where oppressive heat is almost
a given. After the cold front moves through on Sunday,
temperatures and resultant heat indices take a much-appreciated
dip back to below normal for a few days in the wake of a cool
airmass. Expect highs generally in the low to mid 80s Sunday
through Tuesday. The upper level pattern starts to level back out
and we start to creep back up to near normal summer heat by
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals and are expected to
continue through 00Z. Thereafter, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase. Convective timing remains uncertain
as CAMs continue to show poor agreement. Current indications
suggest an initial line of storms may approach terminals near
01Z, followed by a lull from 06Z through mid-morning before a
second round develops. Given limited confidence in precise timing
and coverage, have opted for PROB30 groups this evening and again
between 15-18Z rather than prevailing TS. A cold frontal passage
tomorrow afternoon will shift winds and lead to diminishing
convective chances after 18Z at KMEM, KJBR, and KMKL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this
forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist
through the weekend into the beginning of next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ035-036-048-049-
     058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020.

TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JDS