Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1239 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- A Slight Risk (2/5) of strong to severe thunderstorms continues
  into early Wednesday morning mainly along and south of the I-40
  corridor. Damaging winds are the primary hazards, along with
  urban flash flooding. There is a low chance of a brief tornado
  for portions of northwest Mississippi and southeast Arkansas.

- A Slight Risk (2/5) is in place for southeast Arkansas and most
  of north Mississippi Wednesday afternoon. Damaging winds, large
  hail and flash flooding will be primary severe weather threats.
  A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Cooler and drier air will return Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A cold front currently extends from a 1007mb surface low near
Pittsburgh southwest back through Murray, Kentucky and back into
Harrisburg, Arkansas. The latest radar scan shows elevated
convection north of the front with a few showers out ahead of the
front along the I-40 corridor. A 700mb cap has kept convection at
bay thus far this evening and storms have failed to initiate along
the cold front. Aloft, GOES Water Vapor Imagery shows broad
southwesterly flow with a pronounced shortwave over north central
Texas. Height falls have been nearly non-existent across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The parameter space is dominated by very high
shear on the order of 70 knots of bulk shear and SRH values in
the 0 to 1 km space of 400 m2/s2. Instability remains on the low
end across much of the region with MLCAPE values of 500 J/kg
focused along and west of the Mississippi River. If any storms can
become surface- based in the next couple of hours and along or
south of the front, the primary threats would be damaging winds
and a brief tornado or two. Lapse rates aloft remain limited
around 6.5 C/km, thus the hail threat would be marginal at best.

Hi-res guidance remains focused on the cold front stalling out
near the TN/MS border by Wednesday sunup. The main trough,
currently over the Four Corners Region, will sweep across the
Southern Plains and bring appreciative height falls to the Lower
Mississippi Valley steepening lapse rates aloft. Areas south of
the front will destabilize by mid afternoon but uncertainty
remains with respect to where the outflow modified cold front will
be situated. Bulk shear will remain plentiful across the region,
but instability remains in question. HREF guidance suggests that
the 500 SBCAPE may develop over portions of northeast Mississippi,
but probabilities remain meager with only a 25% chance at Tupelo
with a tight gradient of increasing probs down into Monroe County,
MS. Nonetheless, the Slight Risk appears to be well drawn to
account for the uncertainty in the thermodynamic environment
Wednesday afternoon.

The main threat on Wednesday still appears to be the flooding
potential as PWATs remain elevated at 1.7 inches, or near the 90th
percentile for this time of year. The slow, southward progress of
the front this afternoon, combined with 850mb flow nearly
parallel to the boundary, suggests a medium to high potential for
training thunderstorms. The HREF supports this theory with 24 hour
LPMM totals showing a swath of 2.5 to 4.5 inches of QPF setting
up just to the south of the I-40 corridor and extending into the
first two rows of north Mississippi counties. The front will
finally clear the area around midnight tomorrow night ending the
threat of heavy rainfall across the region.

Broad surface high pressure will build into the region through
Friday morning with temperatures running about 5 to 10 degrees
below normal. Low temperatures will dip into the 40s nearly
areawide Friday morning. High pressure will slide east late Friday
and return flow will set up over the region. Rain chances will
return on Sunday as a deepening trough over the Great Lakes Region
noses equatorward and helps push a cold front through the region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms will continue to migrate
east/southeast through the overnight hours. Southwest winds will
also remain gusty in the same timeframe. MVFR and intermittent IFR
conditions will continue spreading across the airspace over the
next several hours. As we edge closer to sunrise, the IFR deck,
currently over NE AR, will begin to fill in at MEM/MKL/TUP. By
daybreak, showers and thunderstorms, situated along a stalled
front, moving NW to SE, will continue to impact terminals through
the evening hours. A few hours of mist is expected to follow the
main push of convection past sunset. VFR conditions should slowly
begin to filter back in after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next 7 days. Humidity
and widespread wetting rain chances will occur again on Wednesday
as a cold front moves through the entire Mid-South. Cooler and
drier air will move into the region for Thursday and Friday. There
is a low to medium chance that minimum relative humidity values
dip below 40% on Friday. Wetting rain chances will return Sunday
with another cold front.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1257 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

TNZ019-020-048-050-051-060630-
Crockett TN-Lauderdale TN-Dyer TN-Haywood TN-Gibson TN-
1257 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CROCKETT...SOUTHEASTERN DYER...
GIBSON...EAST CENTRAL LAUDERDALE AND NORTH CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES
THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 1256 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chestnut Bluff, or 15 miles east of Ripley, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Humboldt, Trenton, Alamo, Dyer, Halls, Chestnut Bluff, Forked Deer,
Eaton, Medina, Maury City, Friendship, Gates, Gadsden, Gibson,
Tuckers Corner, Grizzard, Hawkinsville, Quincy, Gibson Wells, and
Good Luck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3568 8938 3586 8947 3613 8890 3584 8875
TIME...MOT...LOC 0556Z 251DEG 50KT 3581 8928

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
105 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

TNZ049-050-088-089-060630-
Tipton TN-Fayette TN-Shelby TN-Haywood TN-
105 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON...NORTHERN
FAYETTE...SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES
THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 104 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Munford, or 8 miles east of Millington, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bartlett, Millington, Lakeland, Arlington, Munford, Somerville,
Brighton, Dancyville, Tipton, Warren, Atoka, Oakland, Mason,
Gallaway, Stanton, Williston, Braden, Asbury, Yum Yum, and
Barretville.

This includes Interstate 40 in Tennessee between mile markers 22 and
52.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 8999 3551 8980 3549 8918 3515 8938
TIME...MOT...LOC 0604Z 271DEG 44KT 3538 8975

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
130 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

TNZ050-052-053-089-090-060700-
Hardeman TN-Fayette TN-Chester TN-Madison TN-Haywood TN-
130 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE...NORTHERN
HARDEMAN...SOUTHERN HAYWOOD...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTHWESTERN
CHESTER COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM CDT...

At 130 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dancyville, or 16 miles southwest of Brownsville, moving east at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bolivar, Chickasaw State Forest, Chickasaw State Park, Whiteville,
Silerton, Hillville, Dancyville, Cloverport, Mercer, Stanton, Toone,
Medon, Asbury, Yum Yum, Pine Top, Hickory Point, Uptonville, Taylor
Chapel, Teague, and Meux Corner.

This includes Interstate 40 in Tennessee between mile markers 38 and
52.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8950 3547 8946 3553 8877 3526 8875
TIME...MOT...LOC 0630Z 267DEG 48KT 3538 8937

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AEH