Wind Advisory 12, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are developing this afternoon
  north of I-20 as winds increase, relative humidity falls bellow
  15 percent, and temperatures rise well above average.

- A strong cold front arrives overnight with gusty north winds
  bringing much cooler temperatures and blowing dust.

- Scattered showers/storms are possible overnight across the
  eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VIS/IR satellite imagery early this afternoon depicts scattered
clouds over SE NM plains into W TX and dissipating mist/fog over the
Pecos River valley as dew point temperatures west of a dryline are
below 35F and east of a dryline stay above 40F. West of the dryline,
strong west winds have prompted a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupes from this afternoon through this evening, and increased
fire weather risk over SE NM into parts of W TX (see Fire Weather
Discussion for more details). Due to the strong winds over higher
elevations, patchy blowing dust reducing visibilities is also
possible. Highs today rise into the 80s and 90s F once more, around
10 degrees above average for this time of year. A 30% to 45% chance
of scattered showers/storms east of the dryline over the eastern
third of the area is forecast from this afternoon into tonight. Some
storms east of the dryline could be severe this evening into
tonight, with main threats in strongest storms being damaging winds,
hail, and a tornado or two. While some storms may produce locally
heavy rain, widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time. A
strong cold front develops south/southeast and clears the area by
tomorrow morning, bringing more seasonable temperatures in the 60s
and 70s F for Saturday following lows Saturday morning in the 40s
and 50s F, 30s F northern Lea County. However, following a lull in
winds overnight, winds shift to northeasterly and again increase
above 20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, especially for the Guadalupes
below 7000 feet and Guadalupe Pass. Therefore, despite cooler
weather and more stable conditions behind the cold front, high winds
are again expected for the Guadalupe Pass and northern Guadalupes
into Carlsbad Caverns National Park, and a High Wind Warning is in
effect from midnight tonight through noon Saturday. With continued
CAA Saturday evening and dew point temperatures/boundary layer
moisture dropping into the 20s and 30s F allowing for more efficient
radiational cooling, lows tomorrow night in the 30s and 40s F are
forecast for much of the area, with 50s F confined to the region
along the Rio Grande. Cooler weather persists prior to a warming
trend, but showers/storms return to parts of the area to end the
weekend and begin next week. More details on that in the long term
discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Heading into Sunday, an upper level disturbance out ahead of an
incoming ridge looks to move across the region. Medium to long range
ensembles continue to put out increasing, but low (10-30%) rain
chances across the western parts of the CWA before moving them
eastward by Sunday night and into the day on Monday. Depending on
the placement of cloud cover and rain, temperatures stay below
normal for Sunday and Monday with many areas struggling to reach
70F. Less cloud cover and rain will mean slightly warmer
temperatures, so there remains some uncertainty in just how cool or
warm some areas will be. Rain amounts continue to look fairly low
for most locations with the most likely outcome for most locations
being under a tenth of an inch.

Tuesday and onward sees upper level ridging return to the southern
US and that spells for warmer than normal temperatures each day with
high reaching into the 80s and low 90s by Wednesday. With ridging
expected to move in, rain chances look low for the middle and end of
next week, as the pattern ensembles are honing in on would keep the
dryline to the east of the area.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Latest NAM buffer soundings put fropa at KHOB/KCNM at around 07Z,
and clearing KFST ~ 11Z.  This will likely be accompanied by a
little BLDU, and we'll keep vsbys MVFR or better attm. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail.  Gusty post-frontal winds should
continue through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Forecast remains on track as surface observations are already
showing increasing winds with gusts between 30-35 mph across
southeast New Mexico and into adjacent West Texas counties. Many
of those same areas are already seeing RHs fall below critical
levels (<15%) and should bottom out near or below 10% by the mid
afternoon. RFTI values will climb to near 6/7 north of I-20 and
these conditions amid receptive fuels will support Critical fire
weather conditions. A sharp windshift will occur overnight as a
cold front passes with gusts of up to 50 mph continuing for a few
hours behind the boundary. Slowly increasing relative humidity and
cooler temperatures behind the front are expected to improve the
fire weather environment into the overnight hours. Thunderstorm
chances overnight will remain east of the critical areas where
fuels have improved due to recent rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               50  69  41  71 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 48  72  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   58  71  52  67 /  20  30  10  20
Fort Stockton            53  71  46  68 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           45  62  43  61 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    43  69  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    45  68  39  62 /   0   0   0  30
Midland Intl Airport     51  69  43  71 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                   51  69  43  70 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     51  72  43  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 1 PM CDT /noon
     MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Saturday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...99

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
936 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Pine Springs            31.89N 104.81W
04/17/2026  M61 MPH          Culberson          TX   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 60 Pine Springs GMNP
            measured a 61 mph wind gust.

&&