Wind Advisory 11, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) Tuesday
  across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
  Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the
  strongest storms.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
  across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains,
  and portions of far west Texas through Friday.

- Very windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware
  Mountains through Tuesday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A broad dryline has developed this afternoon across the eastern
Permian Basin. Convergence and instability along this feature is
causing a few storms to develop with the help of daytime heating.
Shear is marginal but we could see a storm or two become severe
with large hail and strong winds the main threats. The dryline
retreats back west overnight before surging back east tomorrow in
a near carbon copy of what is happening today. Additional lift
from an upper trough and jet stream will increase the storm
coverage and PoPs increase to 40 to 50 percent in the far eastern
counties. Highs will be similar to today reaching the 80s for most
locations which is pretty typical for April.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Westerly flow then dominates for the middle and end of the week,
keeping the dryline just far enough east that rain chances should
generally remain in the Big Country and Hill Country of central
and west-central Texas. Cannot rule out a rogue shower from Big
Lake to Snyder but rainfall amounts will be very little. Highs
should hold in the 80s to lower 90s throughout this week since
there are no upper features moving across the area to provide any
change.

Friday an upper level trough moves out of the intermountain west
and into the Great Plains. Unfortunately the best lift will be
north of the area and this system will provide more wind than
anything else. It is possible that pressure falls ahead of the
trough could hold the dryline far enough west that some of the
eastern counties in our CWA could see some rain chances but most
of the area will be dry, windy, and quite possibly dusty. The
trough moves east of the area and a cold front moves through
Saturday bringing quite pleasant temperatures for the weekend with
slightly below normal highs in the 70s.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions look to prevail through the period. Southerly to
southeasterly winds will bring in moisture overnight which may
cause low clouds (MVFR) to develop near MAF and FST terminals.
There is very low confidence in this occurring, thus, left the
lower CIGs out. Strong to breezy southerly and southwesterly
winds are expected late this morning throughout the afternoon
across all terminals. Rain/storm chances increase late this
afternoon into the evening hours especially across FST and MAF
sites, however, high uncertainty remains how far west storms will
form at the moment.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Have left the Tuesday Fire Weather Watch in effect for now and
will let one more shift look at conditions before making a final
decision. At this time, it appears minimum afternoon humidities
will be a little to high to warrant a Red Flag Warning but again
will wait 12 hours to see if models drop them any. A dryline will
push east into the Permian Basin daily bringing elevated fire
weather conditions to portions of southeastern New Mexico and the
Permian Basin, but the day to watch is Friday. An upper low moving
into the Great Plains will bring windy and dry conditions and
Friday afternoon should see critical fire weather conditions
across a good portion of the area. The limiting factor could be
fuel moisture in the eastern basin and lower Trans Pecos. Fire
fighters should monitor Friday as the biggest day of concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               85  62  86  54 /  30  50  20   0
Carlsbad                 85  54  81  49 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   83  63  85  62 /  40  50  20  10
Fort Stockton            87  62  86  56 /  20  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           74  52  71  51 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    84  54  81  49 /  10  20   0   0
Marfa                    80  49  78  43 /  10  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     86  62  84  56 /  20  40  10   0
Odessa                   86  62  84  55 /  20  40  10   0
Wink                     87  60  84  50 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning through
     this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from 9 AM MDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11