Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
145 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms develop across the region again today. A
  few storms will be capable of producing localized severe
  downburst winds and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized
  flash flooding.

- The heavy rainfall and flash flood threat increases across
  southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Van Horn
  Corridor tonight through at least Thursday morning. Heavy
  rainfall and flooding potential may persist over these locations
  through the latter part of the week as well.

- Temperatures will be closer to seasonable levels today through
  the remainder of the week, gradually warming again by this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Current 500mb RAP analysis shows an area of high pressure centered
near central Texas. Meanwhile, an upper trough with a low centered
near Nevada is digging into the western CONUS. Wedged in between
these two features, southerly/southwesterly flow aloft draws
moisture from Hurricane Polo in the EPAC, evidenced by plentiful
high cloud coverage. Surface winds become easterly/southeasterly as
yesterday's front stalls near the Pecos River valley, accompanied by
Gulf moisture. Provided these two sources of moisture, PWAT values
this afternoon look to range between 1-1.5" across the region.
Through the period, the ridge slowly shifts eastward, while
disturbances roll along its western periphery, mainly over New
Mexico. Lift from these disturbances promotes isolated to scattered
shower/storm development this afternoon and evening across the area.
Rain chances areawide this afternoon range from 10-50%, with the
best odds over the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. A few
showers have already percolated over the southeastern Permian Basin
and the Lower Trans Pecos. The primary concerns with the strongest
storms today remains heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, along
with strong to severe wind gusts.

Moisture advection from both the mid levels and lower levels
continues through the rest of the Short Term period. Rain chances
tonight range from 20-70%, favoring the northwestern portion of our
region. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are again in the
forecast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Nearest the area of high
pressure, the southern/eastern Permian Basin and the Big Bend, rain
chances will tend to be lower. The highest chances (50-70%) will be
focused over southeast New Mexico and Culberson County through the
remainder of the period. Given several rounds of rainfall expected
in our westernmost reaches, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect over
southeast New Mexico, far west Texas, and the Guadalupe Mountains
this afternoon through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts are
generally expected between 1-2", with isolated amounts of over 4"
possible with the heaviest storms in these areas. Be sure to be
weather aware and keep an eye out for any warnings issued!
Otherwise, temperatures tonight and tomorrow night generally cool to
the 60s. Highs tomorrow warm into the 70s in the higher terrain, 90s
along the Rio Grande valley, and 80s almost everywhere else.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The cooler and wetter pattern continues through the end of the week.
Southeasterly winds at lower levels will pump moisture from the Gulf
towards our region, while southerly to southwesterly winds aloft
continue to advect mid-to-upper level moisture our direction. As a
result, PWATs remain between the 90th-99th percentile. This,
combined with lift from shortwaves in the flow aloft, will continue
to encourage medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances across
mainly the western half of the area Thursday and Friday (50-80%).
The highest chances/most rainfall is still forecast for our
southeast New Mexico counties and in Culberson County, where the
Flood Watch mentioned in the Short Term discussion remains in effect
through 7AM CDT/6AM MDT Thursday (though this may be extended in
future forecast updates). Chances are generally be lower for the
eastern half of the area (20-40%).

By Saturday the flow aloft becomes more zonal as ridging begins to
build over the area again. As a result, the best rain chances shift
towards the higher terrain south and west of the Pecos (30-60%
chances), with lower chances elsewhere. Temperatures also start to
increase again during this timeframe. Whereas highs in the mid-to-
upper 80s and low 90s will be prevalent through Friday, highs in the
low-to-mid 90s return to most locations this weekend and into early
next week. By the early-to-middle part of next week, long range
models continue to depict another trough moving across the Plains.
This trough may help push another front our direction, and may also
allow rain chances to increase across the area again. Nevertheless,
confidence in the positioning, timing, and strength of the trough
remains low this far out, so stay tuned for future updates!

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop
this afternoon and evening at most sites, prompting PROB30s.
Storms may produce gusty, erratic winds, as well as reduced
ceilings. Otherwise, VFR conditions look to prevail, accompanied
by easterly and southeasterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  88  70  91 /  30  20  10  10
Carlsbad                 65  82  64  83 /  60  60  50  60
Dryden                   72  90  72  91 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            68  87  68  89 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           61  72  60  74 /  50  80  50  80
Hobbs                    64  82  65  83 /  60  40  50  40
Marfa                    60  79  59  81 /  10  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport     68  86  69  88 /  30  10  10  10
Odessa                   69  86  70  88 /  30  10  10  10
Wink                     69  87  70  88 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...95

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

TXZ050-061-062-068-221945-
Midland TX-Andrews TX-Crane TX-Ector TX-
200 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ECTOR...SOUTHEASTERN ANDREWS...
WEST CENTRAL MIDLAND AND NORTH CENTRAL CRANE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM
CDT...

At 200 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Odessa, moving northwest at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Odessa, Goldsmith, Midland International Air and Space Port, West
Odessa, Notrees, Odessa Schlemeyer Field, Penwell, Warfield, and
Pleasant Farms.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 100 and 129.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3155 10248 3197 10280 3204 10280 3220 10238
      3182 10209
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 150DEG 49KT 3175 10236

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

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