Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon and evening
  across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. A few of
  these storms may become severe capable of producing damaging
  winds, locally heavy rainfall, and large hail.

- Low (10% to 30%) shower/storm chances each afternoon/evening
  through the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures persist, with a slight warming trend
  and increasing heat risk by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over
northern Sonora, just southwest of El Paso.  As a result, warm
weather persists.  However, thicknesses will decrease somewhat this
afternoon, shaving a degree or so off yesterday's highs. To the
northeast, a convective outflow boundary is working its way SSW
into the area. and looks to be the focus for convection this
afternoon and overnight. Assisting to the west, models develop a
MCS over Colorado on a shortwave riding down the eastern periphery
of the ridge. Deep-layer shear on the 12Z KMAF RAOB came in
rather tepid, but CAMs increase bulk shear later this afternoon
and overnight as the Colorado MCS approaches. The 12Z sounding
also had a dcape in excess of 1600 J/kg, and wet-bulb zeros/mid-
lvl lapse rates suggesting a large hail threat.

This activity will continue this evening, and possibly overnight,
mainly northern Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains.  This,
along with cooler air advected in from the northeast, will cool
overnight minimums down to less than 5 F above climatology.
Unfortunately, this looks to be the coolest night this forecast.
Lows after tonight will remain unseasonably warm as a LLJ
redevelops, keeping the boundary layer well-mixed.

Monday, the ridge is forecast to develop a little farther west.
Thicknesses will continue decreasing, combining w/CAA from today and
tonight's convective activity to the north to shave a couple of
degrees off today's temperatures.  Highs Monday afternoon should
average only ~ 2-4 F above normal.  In addition to the usual
afternoon convection in the mountains, redevelopment on today's
boundary will be possible, mainly in the southeast Permian Basin.

Monday night, overnight lows will be similar to tonight's, if not a
degree or so warmer as the LLJ begins strengthening again..

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Above normal temperatures continue into the Long Term period as
upper-level ridging persists across the southwestern CONUS. Expect
highs to top out between the upper 90s to lower triple digits each
afternoon. Thursday and Friday currently look to be the hottest days
this forecast period as triple digit temperatures become more
widespread, with some spots in the Big Bend seeing highs near 110
degrees. Little relief is expected overnight as lows bottom out in
the mid-to-upper 70s for most (except 60s in the higher terrain)
most nights. Southeasterly upslope flow and assistance from surface
troughing yield low (generally 10-30%) chances of showers/storms
across the higher terrain (particularly in/near the Davis Mountains
and Marfa Plateau) during the latter part of the week and into the
weekend.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Gusty easterly to northeasterly winds continue at most terminals
this evening. Visibilities are expected to climb to VFR as the
outflow boundary progresses further south. A few VCSH and VCTS
will still linger across INK, MAF, FST, and PEQ with highest
confidence affecting INK and MAF sites. Winds are expected to
decrease and shift southeasterly to southerly at all sites near
12Z this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               97  73  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 98  72  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   99  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            97  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  68  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    95  70  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    91  61  91  62 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     96  73  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   96  73  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     98  73  99  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1143 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

TXZ060>062-067>069-060530-
Midland TX-Crane TX-Ector TX-Upton TX-Ward TX-Winkler TX-
1143 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ECTOR...WARD...SOUTHWESTERN
MIDLAND...WINKLER...NORTHERN CRANE AND NORTHWESTERN UPTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...

At 1142 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of Wink to 6 miles east of
Monahans to 10 miles southwest of West Odessa to 10 miles southeast
of Odessa. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Odessa, Monahans, Kermit, Wink, Thorntonville, Grandfalls, Goldsmith,
Pyote, West Odessa, Wickett, Roy Hurd Memorial Airport, Monahans
Sandhills State Park, Royalty, Notrees, Odessa Schlemeyer Field,
Penwell, Winkler County Airport, and Pleasant Farms.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 58 and 122.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 10208 3143 10245 3131 10281 3134 10291
      3137 10296 3138 10302 3139 10305 3138 10308
      3139 10316 3140 10322 3143 10324 3172 10332
      3191 10312 3207 10281 3208 10265 3182 10217
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 335DEG 13KT 3165 10320 3159 10277 3171 10259
3175 10226

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
204 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

TXZ069-060745-
Upton TX-
204 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT UPTON COUNTY THROUGH 245 AM
CDT...

At 204 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 17 miles northeast of Crane
to near Rankin to 17 miles west of Reagan County Airport. Movement
was south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rankin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3109 10218 3160 10224 3163 10202 3161 10183
      3159 10177 3108 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 0704Z 355DEG 11KT 3154 10210 3126 10198 3119 10178

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
212 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

TXZ282-060800-
Lower Brewster County TX-
212 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY
THROUGH 300 AM CDT...

At 211 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles east of Persimmon Gap, or 27 miles northeast of Panther
Junction, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Big Bend National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2941 10318 2980 10306 2971 10269 2968 10269
      2963 10274 2960 10274 2960 10277 2955 10277
      2952 10281 2949 10280 2945 10283 2941 10283
      2940 10281 2936 10285 2935 10288 2931 10289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0711Z 010DEG 15KT 2956 10283

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
221 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

TXZ279-060800-
Central Brewster County TX-
221 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY
THROUGH 300 AM CDT...

At 221 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles northwest of Persimmon Gap, or 38 miles north of Panther
Junction, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Santiago Peak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2979 10372 2996 10342 2982 10323 2981 10324
      2954 10346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 049DEG 9KT 2984 10344

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11