Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
645 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms continue through this evening
  across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. A storm or two
  may be strong to severe, posing a threat for localized flash
  flooding, damaging winds, and large hail.

- Daily afternoon/evening storm chances through next week, with
  locally heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Rain chances remain in the forecast during the Short Term period. A
few storms have developed over the Permian Basin ahead of a dryline
extending from eastern NM south toward the Big Bend. Some of these
may produce large hail, damaging winds, and localized flash
flooding. Storm activity gradually begins to diminish and shift
eastward this evening, with rain chances mostly ending around, or
just after midnight. Temperatures then slip into the 50s and 60s
tonight.

Friday afternoon, the dryline sets up within the western Permian
Basin, extending down toward the Big Bend. Meanwhile, additional
shortwave impulses will continue to pass over our region, embedded
within a large-scale trough over the western US. As such, isolated
shower/storm development will be possible over the eastern Permian
Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos, where rain chances range from 10-
20%. Given drier conditions and sunnier skies overall, temperatures
Friday afternoon are generally expected to top out in the upper 80s
to mid 90s. Overnight lows again range within he 50s to 60s, with
60s being more prevalent than the night before.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Upper level troughing persists over the western and central US at
the start of the Long Term period. Sunday into Monday, a closed low
develops within the mid levels and sets up over Texas. Several
rounds of shortwave impulses look to traverse over our area through
the next few days. At the surface, the dryline also looks to
oscillate near to within our region through at least the middle of
next week. Lift from both the shortwaves and along the dryline shall
combine with moisture ahead of the dryline to support at least
isolated shower/storm development most afternoons. Storm development
and location will depend on collocation of forcing from shortwaves
and the dryline. As such, there remains high uncertainty regarding
forecast rainfall totals and the potential for severe weather
heading into the upcoming week. Temperatures are progged to range
within the 80s to 90s across the region each afternoon, then dip
into the 50s and 60s during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except for possible
convection this evening, mainly KFST/KINK/KHOB. Surface winds will
veer to SW Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  90  61  85 /  30  20  20  30
Carlsbad                 58  93  59  91 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                   63  90  65  87 /  20  20  10  50
Fort Stockton            61  91  63  89 /  20  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           58  82  60  83 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                    55  91  57  87 /  20   0   0  20
Marfa                    49  84  52  82 /  20   0  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     60  90  63  86 /  20   0  10  20
Odessa                   60  90  63  86 /  20   0  10  20
Wink                     59  93  62  90 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
713 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

TXZ075-273-274-277-278-220100-
Pecos TX-Eastern Culberson County TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-Davis Mountains TX-
713 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN PECOS...SOUTHWESTERN
REEVES...NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND SOUTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kent, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pecos, Kent, Toyah, Balmorhea, Balmorhea Lake, Saragosa, Balmorhea
State Park, Verhalen, Toyahvale, Pecos Municipal Airport, and Buffalo
Trail Scout Camp.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 168 and 224.
 Interstate 20 between mile markers 0 and 40.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3145 10439 3146 10351 3080 10345 3082 10433
      3084 10433 3082 10434 3082 10435 3083 10435
      3084 10437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 270DEG 25KT 3107 10414

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

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