Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 209 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

- Summer-like heat expected this weekend into early next week.
  Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105
  and 110 degrees.

- A few showers and thunderstorms (10-30 percent chance) will
  develop over the region this afternoon and evening. A few storms
  will be capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph
  and possibly quarter size hail, especially over the eastern
  Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains late this
  afternoon and this evening.

- Breezy winds and dry conditions will bring increased fire
  weather concerns to the southeast New Mexico Plains and the
  Guadalupe Mountains through this weekend.

- Rain and storm chances increase (30-50 percent chance) by the
  middle to latter part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Water vapor imagery shows abundant mid and upper level moisture
spreading over southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas in
advance of a shortwave trough progressing into New Mexico early
this afternoon. Ascent ahead of the shortwave trough has
interacted with the available mid-level moisture and elevated
instability to aid in the development of a few high-based showers
over the region this morning with occasional lightning strikes
noted over portions of southeast New Mexico. Only a few sprinkles
or very light rain has made it to the ground as the lower levels
of the atmosphere remain dry, with surface dewpoints in the 30s
and 40s in place across all but the eastern Permian Basin and
western Low Rolling Plains. The shortwave trough axis will move
across our forecast area late this afternoon into this evening,
with ascent ahead of this feature becoming more focused east of
the Pecos River. We expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to
develop by mid to late this afternoon over far southeast New
Mexico into portions of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Other
very isolated high based cells may even develop over our western
and southwestern zones as the shortwave trough moves over the
region. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will continue to
develop into the Permian Basin/western Low Rolling Plains and into
the Trans Pecos region during the early to mid evening hours.
We will generally maintain 20-30 percent coverage over these
locations, with the best chance around 30 percent focused over the
northeastern Basin and western Low Rolling Plains where CAMs have
indicated a better signal for development with the passing
shortwave. Forecast soundings show a well-mixed boundary layer
this afternoon and evening, with cloud bases extending quite high
above 12000 ft AGL. These inverted-V profiles and high downdraft
CAPE values in excess of 1000-1500 J/KG will support damaging wind
gusts of 60-70 mph with convection that develops this afternoon
into this evening. Storm development may become more intense over
the eastern Basin/western Low Rolling Plains and possibly into the
Lower Trans Pecos where low level moisture quality will be better
(surface dewpoints in the 50s). SPC has expanded the Slight (2 of
5) risk of severe weather to encompass locations roughly along
and northeast of a Lamesa-Big Spring/Coahoma line late this
afternoon into this evening, while a Marginal (1 of 5)risk extends
over the rest of the Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos.
Shear and instability may be sufficient for a couple of storms to
produce hail to the size of quarters over the eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

The shortwave trough moves to our east tonight. A much drier
west-southwest flow aloft prevails on Saturday. A dryline will
extend from the eastern/southeastern Permian Basin into the Lower
Trans Pecos on Saturday afternoon. An isolated storm or two cannot
be ruled out over our far eastern zones Saturday afternoon and
evening, but for now overall storm chances are too low to mention
in the forecast (10% or less). Heat will otherwise continue to
build into Saturday with highs on Saturday afternoon topping out
in the 90s to near 100 degrees over much of the forecast area. A
few locations along the Rio Grande may reach in the 101-108
degrees range Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

A southwesterly flow aloft returns Sunday into Monday ahead of a
deepening upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Surface low
pressure will develop over the vicinity of southeastern Colorado
and southwestern Kansas Sunday afternoon, with a dryline extending
southward from this feature across the eastern Texas panhandle
into the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region.
Hot, breezy, and dry conditions will prevail over much of our CWA
to the west of the dryline on Sunday, with the breeziest conditions
anticipated over southeast New Mexico into the Guadalupe Mountains.
High temperatures will once again reach well into the 90s outside
of higher terrain areas, with a few locations in the Permian
Basin and Trans Pecos potentially hitting 100 degrees. A few
locations along the Rio Grande could reach between 101-109
degrees. An isolated storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out
again over our far eastern zones on Sunday, but storm chances once
again remain less than 10 percent. Monday looks to be a carbon
copy of Sunday, with hot/dry/very breezy conditions developing
again over much of the CWA. Highs reach into the mid 90s to around
102 degrees over many locations (and up to 103-109 along the Rio
Grande). A pattern change occurs by Tuesday as a cold front may
push toward the northern Permian Basin and potentially northern
portions of southeast New Mexico. Some model guidance stalls the
boundary just to the north of our CWA Tuesday afternoon with a
dryline trailing southward over far eastern portions of our
region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will once again be
possible over our far eastern zones Tuesday afternoon and evening.
NBM guidance has highs a bit cooler in the upper 80s to mid 90s
for most of the area on Tuesday.

A more unsettled weather pattern may take shape by the middle to
latter part of next week as deep layer moisture increases in
association with a developing mid-level trough over the region.
Surface moisture also increases with dewpoints returning into the
50s and perhaps 60s for some by late in the week. The surface
boundary also looks to remain oriented over our region. These
features along with increased moisture/ascent will bring a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast by mid
to late next week along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Light rain showers and virga has been ongoing throughout the
morning across the region. Expect VCSH across all sites throughout
the early afternoon hours before TS develops later in the
afternoon. Highest confidence in TS occurring will be at FST and
HOB sites, while TS PROB30s are in place elsewhere due to lower
confidence. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds are expected
during the afternoon with occasional gusts up to 30 kts across
most terminals especially with any passing brief showers and TS.
A low-level jet develops across portions of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico early this evening shifting breezy winds
southerly to southeasterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68 100  70  99 /  30   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 63  99  64  96 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   69  95  72 100 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            66 101  66 100 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           62  86  62  85 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    60  99  61  96 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    55  92  55  91 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  99  69  98 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                   67  99  69  97 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                     64 100  64  99 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
241 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

NMZ029-033-152130-
Northern Lea County NM-Central Lea County NM-
241 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LEA COUNTY THROUGH 330
PM MDT...

At 240 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles northwest of Maljamar, or 33 miles northeast of Artesia, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lovington, Tatum, McDonald, Gladiola, and Tatum Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 10306 3296 10381 3297 10376 3338 10377
      3340 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 266DEG 27KT 3311 10393

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

95

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
426 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

NMZ028-034-TXZ059-060-274-152215-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-Loving TX-
Reeves County Plains TX-Winkler TX-
426 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN EDDY...SOUTHWESTERN
LEA...NORTH CENTRAL REEVES...WEST CENTRAL WINKLER AND LOVING COUNTIES
THROUGH 515 PM CDT/415 PM MDT/...

At 425 PM CDT/325 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 14 miles northeast of Red Bluff Reservoir, or 27 miles
north of Mentone, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Slash Ranch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 10377 3207 10394 3242 10344 3186 10315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 248DEG 30KT 3209 10376

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

95

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
331 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

NMZ029-033-152215-
Northern Lea County NM-Central Lea County NM-
331 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LEA AND NORTHWESTERN
GAINES COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM MDT...

At 331 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McDonald, or 10 miles southwest of Tatum, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lovington, Tatum, McDonald, Gladiola, and Tatum Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
western Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 10306 3280 10362 3331 10367 3341 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 260DEG 31KT 3314 10344

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

95