Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
129 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon and evening, mainly in/around the Davis Mountains of
  West Texas.

- Above normal temperatures return Saturday, and continue through
  next week. Highs during the middle part of next week should
  average around 10 F above normal, making it feel more like early
  July than mid May.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough over northern
Chihuahua, and this feature is set to very slowly traverse the Davis
Mountains/Big Bend Area later this afternoon and tonight, opening a
window for convection, which CAMs concentrate in the Davis
Mountains.  Return flow will continue advecting rich Gulf moisture
into the area, adding 3-4 F to overnight minimums, pushing them to ~
3-4 F above climatology.

Saturday, dry, northwesterly flow aloft develops in the wake of the
exiting trough, with thicknesses continuing to increase under mostly
sunny skies.  Highs will top out ~ 5-10 F above normal, around 6-8 F
warmer than today, and putting most locations solidly in the 90s.

With these warmer temperatures, continued return flow, and a 35 kt
LLJ developing, lows Saturday night should come in 4-5 F above
tonight's.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A cold front sweeps into our region Sunday morning, driven by an
upper trough spanning from the northern Plains to the northeastern
CONUS. Breezy north and northeast winds are expected behind the
front. Highs in our northern counties and the higher elevations are
forecast to reach the 80s Sunday afternoon, the triple digits along
the Rio Grande, and the 90s elsewhere.  As the trough shifts
eastward late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, an embedded
shortwave may allow for some isolated shower/storm development
within our easternmost counties. Rain chances are currently low
(10-30%) Sunday afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure sets
up behind the cold front overnight Sunday, keeping cool air
flowing into our region. Temperatures Sunday night fall to the
50s/60s, then warm to the 80s Monday. Upper ridging builds from
the west through the remainder of the Long Term period, with lee
troughing developing over the Plains early Tuesday morning.
Afternoon highs soar into the 90s for most each afternoon, with
overnight lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Satellite imagery shows the stratus deck steadily eroding, albeit
slowly. After this scatters out, VFR conditions should prevail for
the remainder of the forecast period. Forecast soundings develop a
few cu invof KFST this afternoon as the upper trough moves in, and
a high cloud or two is possible, as well. Otherwise, winds remain
light/variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  92  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 56  95  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   62  89  64  97 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            58  93  64  96 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           57  85  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    55  92  59  85 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    47  87  52  91 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     60  91  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   60  91  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     58  93  62  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
405 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

TXZ277>279-082130-
Central Brewster County TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
405 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 405 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Alpine, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Brewster County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3024 10350 3039 10355 3055 10337 3031 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 252DEG 9KT 3040 10345

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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