Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
603 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Strong westerly downsloping winds, low RH, and continued above average
  temperatures Friday keep fire weather risk and patchy blowing
  dust in the forecast for western higher terrain and adjacent
  plains.

- Much cooler weather but continued strong winds over western
  higher terrain for Saturday following 25% to 45% chance of
  scattered showers/storms over southeastern parts of the area
  Friday night.

- Lighter winds and even cooler temperatures for Sunday, but with another
  25% to 45% chance of scattered showers/storms later in the day
  into the overnight, mainly along and northeast of the Davis
  Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

WV imagery shows an upper trough off the coast of Baja del Norte
this afternoon, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under
southwest flow aloft. At the surface, southwesterly winds over the
higher terrain are meeting up with return flow in the east to
sharpen up a dryline running from the Presidio Valley to the
northern Permian Basin, and will be the focus of isolated
convection later this afternoon, which could continue past the
evening hours. The latest HRRR initiates activity 20-21Z
along/east of the dryline. The 12Z KMAF raob came in w/mucapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg, and dcapes of 1400 J/kg. Mid-lvl lapse rates
of 7.9 C/km and 0-6km shear approaching 40 kts suggest some of the
storms this afternoon could be marginally severe, as hi-res mid-
level lapse rates decrease a bit over the next 12 hours.

Tonight, a 40 kt LLJ is forecast to develop over the lower Trans
Pecos/eastern Permian Basin, keeping winds elevated, the dryline
backed up against the higher terrain, and overnight minimums ~
10-15 F above climatology.

Friday, the upper trough makes landfall on Baja, with southwest
flow aloft increasing over the region. The latest NAM develops a
modest mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes, which will
exacerbate critical fire weather conditions already expected
there. See fire weather discussion below for more details. As
such, we've issued a High Wind Warning, which will likely be
accompanied by blowing dust. Downslope warming, as well as
compressional warming ahead of a cold front, will add a couple of
degrees to today's highs, for afternoon temperatures almost 10 F
above normal.

Increased westerlies over the higher terrain will mix the dryline
east, and hi-res models initiate convection along this feature at
around 00Z Saturday over the lower Trans Pecos/southeast Permian
Basin. 50-60 kts of deep layer shear and 7-9 C/km lapse rates
suggest another round of severe activity, potentially lasting past
06Z, when a cold front enters the area. This front may be strong
enough for a few hours of gap winds late Friday night, as it
shaves around 10 F off tonight's lows. This will take lows
Saturday morning down to a couple of degrees above normal on
average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

More seasonable weather for mid April characterized by highs
largely below the mid 70s F and lows in the 30s to 40s F is
forecast this weekend continuing into early next week. A 25% to
45% chance of scattered showers/storms moving southeast over the
eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County taper off late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Westerly winds then shift to
northerly and increase behind a strong cold front developing
south/southeast through the area. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph
with gusts up to 55 mph or more for the Guadalupes are indicated
in numerical guidance and grids, suggesting high wind products may
be needed for this region Saturday, while lower wind speeds and
gusts largely below 30 mph are expected for lower elevations and
to the east of western higher terrain. Will leave decision on
whether to issue high wind products for the Guadalupes to the
midnight shift as wind criteria are still marginal and forecast
mean and maximum winds for Saturday could still change. Cool
temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s F Saturday will be followed
by even cooler temperatures in the 60s F, 50s F higher elevations
Sunday. Northeasterly winds veer back to southeasterly despite the
cooler temperatures in response to an approaching mid to upper
storm disturbance with accompanying lift and moisture developing
in from Baja CA. Moisture increases as dew point temperatures in
the lower 20s to lower 30s in the morning increase back into the
30s and 40s F F by evening. This will be followed by another 25%
to 45% chance of scattered showers/storms rippling southwest to
northeast across the area Sunday into Sunday night, with highest
coverage expected over the Davis Mountains into Guadalupes and
points northeast. At this time, no flooding risk is indicated, but
we will continue to monitor the renewed shower/storm chances
Sunday. A gradual warming trend next week picks up as the dryline
redevelops and highs warm back into the 70s and 80s F with lows in
the 40s and 50s F. As mid to upper ridging and accompanying large
scale sinking motion strengthen from SW TX into the northern
Rockies, temperatures warm back to above average by the middle to
end of next week, with highs above 80F and lows above 50F.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR continues at all terminals. Wind gusts decrease after sunset
this evening. Winds remain southwesterly at CNM with all other
terminals shifting back to the southwest behind the dryline during
the day tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Min RH below critical 15% from the Sacramento Foothills and
Presidio Valley to just west of the eastern Permian Basin into
Terrell County, in addition to high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than average, weeks of no substantial rainfall, fuel ERCs
above the 50th percentile, and 20-ft winds up to 20 miles per hour
Southeast New Mexico, Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, and
Sacramento Foothills will result in RFTIs up to 4-5 from afternoon
through early evening today. As a result, a Rangeland Fire Danger
Statement remains in effect through this evening. Following poor
overnight recovery west of the Big Bend into Marfa Plateau and Lea
County, increasing 20-ft winds sustained above 20 knots and
gusting up to 50 knots or more over the Guadalupes will prompt
critical fire weather conditions more widespread than today. Along
with high temperatures remaining up to 10 degrees above average,
westerly downsloping winds will increase RFTIs into the 5-7 range
from early afternoon through early evening for much of Southeast
New Mexico into Culberson County and the northwest Permian Basin.
A Fire Weather Watch therefore remains in effect Friday for these
regions. Cooler temperatures but min RH remaining near or below
critical northwest of the Big Bend into southeast Permian Basin
and 20-ft winds from the northeast 20 miles per hour Saturday keep
elevated fire weather conditions present for western higher
terrain. Lighter 20-ft winds and even cooler temperatures with
increased shower/storm chances Sunday reduces fire weather
concerns, with low fire weather conditions persisting into early
next week as min RH increases back above 15% and 20-ft winds
largely remain below 20 miles per hour, despite a warming trend in
high and low temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  91  50  69 /  20   0  30  10
Carlsbad                 55  86  50  72 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   66  94  59  73 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Stockton            63  93  54  71 /  10   0  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           57  76  46  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    56  86  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    50  83  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     66  90  52  69 /  10   0  20  10
Odessa                   65  89  52  69 /  10   0  20  10
Wink                     60  90  51  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Martin.

NM...High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...93

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