Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Highs remain above normal through Monday, but trend cooler
  beginning Tuesday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
  region through the weekend. A few storms will be capable of
  producing localized strong downburst winds, frequent lightning,
  and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances continue into the early to middle part of next
  week. Flash flooding will continue to be a hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Little change to the forecast for today and into tonight from the
previous package. Satellite imagery and mesoanalysis continue to
indicate southwesterly flow over the western half of the region with
a ridge parked over the Arklatex. Surface dew points remain 60-65+
across the CWA and increasing moisture aloft along with a shortwave
moving in from the west will aid in developing scattered showers and
storms across the higher terrain and Big Bend with coverage
expanding later this afternoon and evening into the Permian Basin.
Convection decays and move out of the region late tonight, but with
the bulk of the moisture remaining in the area, rain chances
continue on Sunday with a focus across the eastern third of the
area. A few storms today will be strong to severe with damaging
winds and heavy rainfall as the main threats. Highs tomorrow will be
about the same as today with most locations reaching into the 90s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Heading into Sunday evening, showers and storms from earlier in the
day begin to decay and move to the east. During the day on Monday, a
cold front approaches from the north, but with the onset of daytime
heating, it will slow and stall between Midland and Lubbock. Rain
chances increase along and behind the front Monday evening. The
front pushes south into the region on Tuesday and rain chances
spread nearly areawide with the highest chances (50-70%) across
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Lower chances (20-40%)
continue south of the I-10 corridor.

Each day from Tuesday through Thursday will be similar with rounds
of rain developing each of those afternoons mainly across the
northern half of the CWA. Low confidence on how much will fall over
the course of the week and will depend on where the most favorable
environment will be each day. Medium range continues to put the
focus over southeast New Mexico and into central New Mexico. Highs
during this time drop into the 80s to low 90s for most, which is an
improvement from the late season heat, but will still be above
normal for the end of September. Overnight lows settle into the 60s
partly because of a cooler airmass and northeasterly flow at the
surface as well as increased cloud cover and rain chances.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Aside from areas of direct convection, VFR conditions will
prevail next 24 hours in light and variable flow. Convection is
possible most terminals over the next 6-8 hours. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning/early
afternoon Sunday, w/bases ~ 6-9 kft AGL. Convection is possible
Sunday afternoon West Texas terminals, but chances are too low for
a mention attm except for KFST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  98  70  95 /  30  40  10  20
Carlsbad                 68  96  68  94 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   76  97  73  97 /  20  30  30   0
Fort Stockton            72  96  70  95 /  20  30  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           66  87  66  86 /  20  10  10   0
Hobbs                    68  94  66  91 /  40  10  10  40
Marfa                    62  88  61  88 /  60  50   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     74  97  71  94 /  30  40  10  20
Odessa                   75  96  72  94 /  30  30  10  20
Wink                     73  98  71  97 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...99

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TXZ277-278-192000-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-Davis Mountains TX-
211 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN REEVES AND NORTH
CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 211 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Kent, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Reeves
and north central Jeff Davis Counties.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 187 and 198.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3110 10405 3102 10388 3096 10386 3087 10403
      3098 10414
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 233DEG 8KT 3095 10406

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
237 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

NMZ029-033-192130-
Northern Lea County NM-Central Lea County NM-
237 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM MDT...

At 237 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McDonald, or 9 miles northeast of Lovington, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
McDonald and Gladiola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3331 10306 3301 10306 3295 10330 3309 10343
      3339 10312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 254DEG 8KT 3306 10326

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
417 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TXZ075-192200-
Pecos TX-
417 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PECOS AND
NORTHWESTERN TERRELL COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 417 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 25 miles southeast of Fort
Stockton to 25 miles northwest of Sanderson. Movement was east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Pecos and northwestern Terrell Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3060 10223 3060 10234 3028 10235 3041 10288
      3075 10265 3077 10217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 274DEG 15KT 3068 10252 3045 10265

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
430 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

NMZ029-033-TXZ045-192215-
Northern Lea County NM-Central Lea County NM-Gaines TX-
430 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LEA AND
NORTHWESTERN GAINES COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT/415 PM MDT/...

At 430 PM CDT/330 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 10 miles east of McDonald, or 15 miles northeast of
Lovington, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Lea
and northwestern Gaines Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10306 3296 10290 3290 10288 3295 10328
      3309 10334 3331 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 254DEG 8KT 3308 10314

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

94

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