Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- A medium (35% to 45%) chance of isolated to scattered storms
  over the SE NM plains into northern Permian Basin this evening
  through early tonight, with damaging winds, flash flooding, and
  hail possible in strongest storms.

- A medium (35% to 45%) chance of scatted storms over the SE NM
  plains into northern and central Permian Basin tomorrow
  afternoon/evening, with damaging winds, flash flooding, and
  hail again possible in strongest storms.

- Cooling trend through late week, then renewed warming trend this
  weekend through early next week as shower/storm chances again
  decrease.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Mid to upper ridging develops farther west of the area beginning
today and continuing through the end of the week. This places the
area within the eastern "ring of fire" and northerly flow aloft,
with disturbances aloft assisting in moisture convergence and lift
overlying easterly near surface flow assisting formation of
afternoon/evening storms. Core of ridging and largest magnitude of
sinking relocating farther west will mean highs a few degrees
cooler than the past several days, although temperatures will
remain very warm to hot. This means highs back below 105F for much
of the area and instead more within the 95F-105F range, except
for the Presidio Valley and Big Bend where highs are still
forecast to rise into the 105F-110F range. Low to medium (35% to
45%) PoPs with isolated to scattered storms are apparent on high-
res CAMs this evening through early tonight over the SE NM plains
into the northwest Permian Basin. SPC has outlined the SE NM and
northern into central Permian Basin in a MRGL risk for today, with
damaging winds the main threat. With PWATs up to at least 1.25",
DCAPE at least 1000 J/kg, and shear less than 25 knots, weakly
organized pulse and outflow storms are possible, with an
accompanying risk of damaging winds, localized flash flooding, and
hail. A very well-mixed boundary layer and inverted-V soundings
in models support damaging wind risk, although not all places will
see storms. Lows fall into the 65F-75F range, 60F-65F range
northern and central Lea County into northwest Permian Basin and
Marfa Plateau as storms diminish. Then, high-res CAMs suggest a
low (20% to 30%) risk of isolated storms remaining over parts of
the Permian Basin through early Thursday morning.

Highs Thursday continue the cooling trend, with most places
seeing highs in the 90F-100F range, and 100F-105F reading limited
to along the Rio Grande, with only the Big Bend again being the
main spot to rise to 110F. PoPs increase to 25% to 35% by
afternoon, then 35% to 45% for the SE NM plains into western and
central Permian Basin. Higher PWAT up to at least 1.50", shear
above 25 knots, and DCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for another
round of strong to severe storms with damaging winds, flash
flooding, and hail possible. High-res CAMS indicate highest
coverage of scattered storms northeast of the Pecos River over the
SE NM plains into the northern and central Permian Basin, with
storms then diminishing as they move south of the Pecos River with
loss of daytime heating by late tomorrow night/early morning.
Lows will again drop to similar levels as tonight, but cooler
temperatures will persist before another warming trend. More
details can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Shower/storms chances northeast of the Pecos River diminish, but
remain present from heating of elevated terrain over the Marfa
Plateau, with grids indicating low to medium (25% to 35%) PoPs
Friday afternoon/evening. PWAT closer to 1.00", very weak easterly
flow, and DCAPE below 1000 J/kg suggest most storms will be sub-
severe, with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning the main risks. However, more details in coverage and
potential limits to severity will be become apparent as we get
closer to the end of the week. Highs rise into the 90F-95F range,
85F-90F higher elevations, and close to the triple digits along
the Rio Grande as lows remain similar to past nights. Then,
shower/storm chances diminish farther this weekend through early
next week as mid to upper ridging again develops closer over the
area. This may allow highs to again rise above the triple digits
for the usual warmer spots north of the Rio Grande basin such as
along the Pecos River valley and northeast Permian Basin. This far
out, all we can say for now is that high temperatures will remain
very warm with no major cooling trend in sight as we close the
month of August and head into September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Isolated
to scattered storms are expected this evening and overnight hours
across portions of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Opted to
include TS/-TSRA PROB30s at most sites. However, low confidence
(<30%) remains for FST and PEQ. Brief MVFR to IFR VIS may occur with
any outflow boundaries, but have left out of TAFs for now due to
uncertainty in timing/location. Amendments will be made as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  99  72  99 /  50  20  10   0
Carlsbad                 73 100  72  99 /  10  10  20   0
Dryden                   76 102  75 100 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            74  99  72  98 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           71  92  69  90 /  10  30  20  10
Hobbs                    70  98  69  96 /  40  20  40   0
Marfa                    64  93  63  91 /   0  20   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     75  98  73  97 /  30  20  10   0
Odessa                   75  98  74  97 /  30  20  10   0
Wink                     75 100  73  99 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...55

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
649 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

TXZ070-270030-
Reagan TX-
649 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN REAGAN COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 649 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Barnhart, or 12 miles southeast of Big Lake, moving northwest at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
U.S. Highway 67 east of Big Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10128 3108 10143 3118 10147 3129 10129
      3127 10127 3110 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 137DEG 5KT 3111 10126

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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