Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
122 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Widely scattered storms could produce locally heavy rain, gusty
  winds, and frequent lightning this afternoon/evening with the
  highest coverage in the Big Bend and Davis Mountains. Localized
  flash flooding will be possible in the heaviest storms that
  develop.

- Rain chances persist in the forecast through Tuesday evening,
  mainly favoring the western higher terrain. Localized flash
  flooding remains of concern in the event of occasionally heavy
  rainfall.

- Warmer and drier conditions return areawide by the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Current satellite imagery shows the upper low in portions of
southeast New Mexico extending into the Upper Trans Pecos in west
Texas. A pronounced Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) is shown south
of Van Horn moving east-southeast towards the Davis Mountains.
Another mesoscale low looks to be prevalent across the Eddy County
Plains. Both features will supply additional lift for widely
scattered to numerous shower/storm development later this afternoon
and evening. The highest coverage of showers/storms will be across
the Davis Mountains, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend region. Given
quite a bit of rain has fallen in these areas over the past couple
of days, this will heighten the flash flood threat. Isolated to
widely scattered storms are expected elsewhere today. The 12Z MAF
sounding showed a record daily PWAT (1.82"), slow storm motions, and
a very moist vertical profile especially in the mid-levels of the
atmosphere. These parameters indicate that showers/storms will
continue to produce heavy rainfall. Like yesterday, forecast
soundings depict inverted-V profiles, sufficient DCAPE, abundant
instability, and modest lapse rates supporting the threat of
isolated gusty winds and hail up to the size of quarters with the
strongest storms.

Tonight, the upper low shifts into far West Texas. Lingering showers
and storms will be confined across portions of southwest Texas
including the Big Bend and Davis Mountains. As a result, the flash
flood threat continues through the overnight to early morning hours
for these areas. This activity looks to stick around similar areas
and in the Lower Trans Pecos. Rain chances become limited to the
western half of the forecast area as the low pivots away from the
region Monday afternoon. High temperatures both days will range from
the mid 80s to mid 90s for most locations with Monday being slightly
warmer.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Warmer and much drier conditions take shape as upper-level ridging
returns. Tuesday will be the last day of appreciable rain chances
mainly west of the Pecos River. Given some areas have already seen
several rounds of rainfall, the risk of flash flooding shall
continue to be a concern Tuesday afternoon before storms diminish by
the evening. By mid week, the aforementioned ridge builds into the
southern Plains becoming the dominant weather feature creating much
warmer and drier conditions areawide. This will gradually increase
temperatures in the low to upper 90s. Guidance has been trending
towards many locations hitting the triple digits by late week into
the weekend.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Morning SHRA continue to dissipate across the area with VFR
prevailing currently. A return to scattered TSRA is expected later
this afternoon lasting into the evening. Amendments are likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  93  71  96 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  92  71  96 /  20  30  10  10
Dryden                   73  94  72  96 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Stockton            69  90  70  94 /  30  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           65  82  66  85 /  30  40  20  20
Hobbs                    66  90  68  95 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                    60  83  60  87 /  40  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport     70  91  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   70  90  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                     70  92  71  96 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29