Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
149 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Hazardous heat continues along the Rio Grande, with highs
  pushing up to 110 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids
  and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the
  western Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and
  the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and
  large hail will be the primary hazards with the strongest
  storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Triple digit heat persists over lowland regions into the end of the
week, with low (10% to 30%) shower/storm chances, greatest over the
Marfa Plateau and Upper Trans Pecos into SE NM plains and Permian
Basin. Following morning showers over the Permian Basin, mid-level
cloud cover thins this afternoon, allowing for highs to rise to 100-
105F, 95F-100F higher elevations into southeast Permian Basin, and
105-110F along the Pecos River into Upper Trans Pecos as well as
Presidio Valley into Big Bend. However, apparent temperatures remain
below Heat Advisory criteria for most of the area except for the Rio
Grande, with actual air temperatures for the Big Bend expected to
increase into the 110F-115F range. Therefore, while heat safety
precautions are still recommended, a Heat Advisory is only in effect
from this afternoon through early evening for Presidio Valley into
the Big Bend, while hazardous but below advisory criteria will be
present elsewhere.  Continued lee troughing over western higher
terrain into the SE NM plains and a weak quasi-stationary front over
the TX South Plains providing near surface lift to pierce overlying
capping again generates isolated to scattered storms as these
boundaries interact with heating of elevated terrain and passing mid
to upper disturbances focusing moisture and lift aloft. Steep low-
level lapse rates, DCAPE above 1000 J/kg, and low RH in the lower
troposphere prior to precipitation indicate strongest storms will be
capable of damaging winds and large hail, and SPC has outlooked Lea
County into the northwest Permian Basin in a MRGL risk. With PWATs
above 1.00" and weak steering flow aloft, heavy rainfall cannot be
ruled out. Due to strengthening lee troughing once more later today,
increased southerly winds are expected over central and eastern
Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau by evening. The southerly winds
in the LLJ and remnant high cloud cover from diminishing storms
after sunset keep lows again in the 70F-75F range, apart from 65F-
70F for higher elevations and northern SE NM plains, and 75F-80F
from the Presidio Valley into Big Bend.

The overall weather pattern provides a similar story to close the
week. Warmer temperatures tomorrow likely necessitate Heat
Advisories extending to lowlands north of the Rio Grande basin,
since highs in the 105F-110F range appear over the northern Permian
Basin in addition to the the usual warmer spots along the Pecos
River valley into Upper Trans Pecos. Once more, highs in the 110F-
115F range for the Big Bend are expected. Only isolated to scattered
storms for much the same regions of the Marfa Plateau into Lea
County are expected tomorrow afternoon/evening. With mid-level
ridging developing slightly to the north and east, PWATs increase,
Increased PWATs and advection of a more humid air mass westward in a
more southeasterly LLJ tomorrow night keep lows slightly warmer than
tonight. The pattern only undergoes a shift next week to more
seasonable temperatures and increased rain chances over higher
terrain, with a signal for heavy rain and flooding potential. More
details can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Saturday and Sunday begin the long term forecast period and will be
repeats of today and Friday. Highs will be right back into the upper
90s to just above 100F for most locations. Rain chances will be low
(10-30%) and be confined to the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau.
By Monday, ridging shifts over the eastern US and a large upper
level trough moves over the western US bringing southwesterly flow
to the upper levels over our area. Rain chances increase (to 40-60%)
across the higher elevations and coverage increases across the
adjacent plains on Monday and Tuesday to 10-30%. Temperatures end up
closer to normal in the mid to upper 90s Monday through Wednesday as
the slightly cooler and wetter pattern takes hold. Rain amounts will
vary each day as it will depend on if a particular location sees
heavy rainfall that day or not. Consistent rain each day across the
Davis Mountains may lead to a threat for flooding, but confidence in
the forecast remains low and will be clarified in future updates.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions, apart from MVFR or lower conditions in
showers/storms. Chances of showers/storms remain low (10% to 30%)
for terminals on SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos and possibly
extending into the Permian Basin, with highest chances from
22Z-01Z this evening. Winds at terminals on the Eddy County Plains
shift to westerly 03Z-06Z, while winds for terminals to the east
remain southerly. Southerly winds at terminals over the central
and eastern Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau again increase to
25 to 30 knots from 20Z-05Z, before decreasing back into the 15 to
20 knot range and below into the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74 104  75 103 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73 104  74 104 /  20  10  10   0
Dryden                   74 102  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74 105  74 102 /  10  20   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           72  95  71  94 /  20  10  10   0
Hobbs                    70 102  71 102 /  20  10  20   0
Marfa                    66  98  65  95 /  10  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     74 102  75 100 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                   74 102  75 100 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                     75 105  75 104 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Lower Brewster
     County-Presidio Valley.

NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
323 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

TXZ075-274-252100-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
323 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN PECOS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
REEVES COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 323 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Saragosa, or 31 miles northeast of Fort Davis,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western Pecos and
south central Reeves Counties.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 216 and 236.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3072 10350 3089 10370 3117 10343 3099 10319
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 238DEG 15KT 3091 10352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
335 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

NMZ028-TXZ273-252115-
Eddy County Plains NM-Eastern Culberson County TX-
335 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY AND NORTH
CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT/315 PM MDT/...

At 334 PM CDT/234 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles southeast of Carlsbad Caverns National Park, or
21 miles northeast of Pine Springs, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Eddy
and north central Culberson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3198 10455 3209 10456 3219 10417 3199 10411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 252DEG 17KT 3203 10449

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
412 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

TXZ274-252200-
Reeves County Plains TX-
412 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 412 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Saragosa, or 24 miles southeast of Toyah, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Saragosa.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 217 and 226.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 10347 3110 10327 3105 10331 3090 10349
      3104 10367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 225DEG 12KT 3103 10355

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
417 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

TXZ273-252200-
Eastern Culberson County TX-
417 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN REEVES AND
NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 417 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles west of Orla, or 30 miles east of Pine Springs, moving east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Reeves
and northeastern Culberson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 10405 3174 10404 3174 10405 3166 10405
      3161 10435 3184 10440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 259DEG 11KT 3178 10431

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

TXZ273-274-252245-
Eastern Culberson County TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
502 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL REEVES AND EAST
CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 502 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles northwest of Toyah, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Reeves
and east central Culberson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 10423 3154 10428 3168 10390 3139 10374
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 244DEG 14KT 3150 10406

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13