Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
203 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 203 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Hazardous heat continues today across the region, with highs
  largely between 100 to 110 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of
  fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Isolated storm chances (10-20%) for portions of the Permian
  Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and far southeast New Mexico this
  afternoon and evening. A storm or two may be severe with
  damaging winds and hail up to size of quarters being the main
  threats.

- Triple digit heat continues through the extended, with low (< 30%)
  chance of showers/storms across the higher terrain and northern
  Permian Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A remnant outflow boundary has pushed across southeast New Mexico
and the Permian Basin and is washing out across the Pecos River
Valley this afternoon. Despite this, temperatures are still expected
to reach into the 100s for many areas. Thus, a Heat Advisory remains
in place as inherited from the previous forecast package. Isolated
storms look to develop in an area stretching from Midland/Odessa
southward towards Fort Stockton. A storm or two may become strong to
severe with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. Any
afternoon activity that develops will decay after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating.

Overnight lows fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s this evening.
Tuesday sees temperatures once again reach into the low 100s for
nearly the entire CWA. The high elevations will sit in the mid to
upper 90s. Another Heat Advisory will be needed as a number of zones
look to reach 105F+ in addition to the mountains zones expected to
be between 95-100F. A storm or two may try to organize over the
Marfa Plateau or Davis Mountains, but rain chances will be 10% or
lower for the whole region. Lows Tuesday night stay just above
normal, settling into the upper 60s to low 70s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Triple digit heat persists through much of the Long Term period as a
meandering upper level ridge remains largely in control of our
weather pattern. Widespread highs near or over 100 degrees are
progged for most each afternoon across the region, with the
exception of the higher terrain and surrounding areas. The hottest
conditions shall tend to be found near and along the river valleys,
where temperatures shall generally range between 105 and 110 most
afternoons. Meanwhile, a few locations along the Rio Grande are
looking to reach up to 115 degrees. Overnight lows are forecast to
mainly fall to the 70s each night. The main source of variance
for our highs will be determined by the exact location and
strength of the upper ridge. At the surface, a low near the
Panhandle, then eventually a lee trough, steers breezy southerly
to southwesterly winds across our area almost each afternoon.
During the evenings and overnights, winds become southeasterly and
elevated due to the low- level jet. The majority of our region
looks to remain dry through the extended forecast. Low (10-30%)
chances for isolated showers/ storms overlay the higher terrain
west of the Pecos River most afternoons, with the best odds
in/near the Davis Mountains. Given this extended duration of above
normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions, we advise to find
ways to keep cool and hydrated. Drinking plenty of fluids and
avoiding strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest parts of
the day can significantly reduce the risk of heat stroke or heat
-related illnesses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR continues through the period. Isolated TS develops near
MAF/FST with less confidence of impact at FST this afternoon.
Otherwise, northerly winds behind an old outflow boundary
gradually shift back to the southeast this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 103  74 104 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72 107  72 106 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   74 100  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73 103  71 104 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           71  98  71  97 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                    70 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  98  63  97 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     74 101  73 102 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   74 101  73 102 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     74 105  72 105 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Southern
     Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93

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