Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
533 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Strong southwest winds over the Guadalupes, Upper Trans Pecos,
  and SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin will lead to
  critical to near critical fire weather conditions and patchy
  blowing dust reducing visibilities for these regions.

- A low to medium (25% to 35%) chance of isolated to scattered strong
  to severe storms with main threats being large hail, damaging
  winds, and locally heavy rain developing this evening over the
  eastern Permian Basin.

- Another 25% to 35% chance of isolated to scattered
  showers/storms, some strong to severe on Friday for the northern
  and eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. Main threats will
  again be large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Strong winds west of a dryline this afternoon and showers/storms,
some strong to severe, this afternoon/evening, are forecast
today. Scattered to broken cloud cover drifting west to
east will give way to showers by late afternoon leeward of the
western higher terrain and the Lower Trans Pecos. 1 hr PoPs
increase from 15% in the afternoon into the 30% to 45% range by
evening over the northeast Permian Basin into southeast Permian
Basin, eastern Stockton Plateau, and northern Terrell County. This
is when isolated to scattered storms, some strong, are expected
to develop. Main threats in strongest storms will be large hail
and damaging winds given low RH <50% at the surface. Where
heaviest and most persistent storms occur, regions impacted could
see 0.50" to 0.75" of rainfall - with up to 1.00" or more
indicated for some locations in the southeast Permian Basin, where
6 hour PoPs increase into the 60% to 80% range. West of a dryline
situated from the central Permian Basin into Upper Trans Pecos
and down into the Big Bend, west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up
to 60 mph - sustained higher speeds and gusts for higher terrain -
are forecast this afternoon into midnight tonight. These
downsloping winds will generate patchy blowing dust reducing
visibilities, and keep temperatures late spring-like in the mid
80s to 90s F, 70s to lower 80s F higher elevations. Cooler and
drier air moves in tonight behind the upper air disturbance
aiding today's strong winds and shower/storm chances. This allows
lows to fall into the 50s and 60s F, 40s F higher elevations and
northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin. Tomorrow,
drier weather persists as the dryline surges east of the central
Permian Basin and Big Bend in the afternoon. West winds shift back
to southwest and gust up to 35 mph west of the dryline. Cooler
air behind today's disturbance keeps highs tomorrow a few degrees
cooler than today, lower to mid 80s F, 70s F higher elevations.
Winds back to southerly tomorrow evening ahead of the next mid to
upper disturbance as the dryline retrogrades into far western
portions of the area, and more humid air/increased boundary layer
moisture advances west. The increased moisture will limit
overnight cooling and keeping lows in the 50s and 60s F apart from
40s F southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau and northern Lea
County.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Another chance of strong to severe storms for the northern and
eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County is forecast Friday,
while strong westerly winds shifting to northeasterly and
remaining strong through Saturday maintain fire weather conditions
- before cooler temperatures and lighter winds lead to calmer
conditions to end the weekend and begin next week. Temperatures
rise back into the mid 80s to 90s F, 70s to lower 80s F higher
elevations Friday. Southerly winds veer back to southwesterly and
then increase in association with the approaching disturbance.
Lift and moisture accompanying the disturbance will again aid
shower/storm formation east of the dryline, which will set up from
the Presidio Valley into Upper Trans Pecos and northwest Permian
Basin. A 25% to 30% 1 hr probability of showers is apparent in NBM
guidance over the eastern Permian Basin by early afternoon,
before increased lift accompanying a strong cold front developing
in from the northwest increases development of isolated to
scattered storms over the northern and eastern Permian Basin into
Terrell County by late afternoon/evening, continuing into the
overnight. Main threats with stronger storms are again expected to
be large hail and damaging winds. Regions impacted by heavier or
more persistent storms may again see locally heavy rain up to at
least 0.25" to 0.50". Cooler weather moves in Friday night through
the weekend, with highs in the 60s and 70s F and lows in the 30s
and 40s F for most of the area. However, gusty winds and a 25% to
40% chance of showers/storms lingers southwest of the Pecos River
Saturday behind the cold front. Highest 6 hr PoPs 45% to 60% for
the Presidio Valley into Big Bend expected Sunday morning through
Sunday night, with persistent clouds and rain chances lingering
even after northeast winds decrease Sunday. Weak ridging aloft
early next week will lead to a gradual warming trend and drier
weather once more, but high and low temperatures stay seasonable
for early April.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/perhaps some BLDU due
to high-based convection affecting mainly KMAF. Light southwest-
to-west surface flow will prevail, w/clearing skies overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for this afternoon through
this evening. ERCs remain above the 75th percentile for much of
the area, especially west of the Pecos River and Southeast New
Mexico. Despite min RHs in the 15 to 20% range, southwest winds
between 30 to 40 mph, dry fuels, and high temperatures at least 10
to 20 degrees warmer than average yield near critical to critical
fire weather conditions today. 20-ft winds decrease Thursday but
remain at or above 20 miles per hour for the Guadalupes into
Southeast New Mexico, while min RHs less than critical 15% return.
Therefore, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
again expected for Southeast New Mexico and western higher terrain
of West Texas into the northwest Permian Basin on Thursday.
Strong 20-ft winds 20 miles per hour or more west of a dryline
Friday and behind a cold front Saturday maintain elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions over the western higher terrain
and surrounding foothills. Lighter winds and cooler temperatures
Sunday into early next week are then expected to decrease fire
risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  88  62  86 /  30   0  10  50
Carlsbad                 54  86  55  88 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   64  90  65  86 /  50   0  10  50
Fort Stockton            61  89  63  89 /  40   0   0  40
Guadalupe Pass           52  76  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    50  84  53  87 /  20   0   0  10
Marfa                    48  81  50  83 /  20   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     59  86  63  87 /  20   0  10  40
Odessa                   59  86  63  87 /  20   0  10  30
Wink                     56  88  59  89 /  30   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for Loving-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99

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