Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
154 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 147 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Cold front moves through the region today bringing higher rain
  chances through Monday. Will be monitoring for heavy rainfall
  leading to flash flooding.

- A few storms may be strong to severe today across southeast New
  Mexico, Upper Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin. The main
  hazards expected are large hail and damaging winds.

- The hottest temperatures of the season so far are possible by
  the middle of next week with many locations experiencing their
  first 100 degree day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Current radar shows weak showers continue in southeastern New
Mexico this afternoon. New storms are now developing in the Davis
Mountains as we have seen the past week, as well as the western
Permian Basin along a weak cold front. There was some isolated
areas of moderate to heavy rain earlier this afternoon but now
that activity has diminished in intensity. Expecting rainfall
amounts to increase again this afternoon especially along and
south of the front where heating and surface based destabilization
will be greatest. Observations show the front is currently near
or just north of the I-20 corridor and slowly moving south.
Courser global models show a line of convection developing along
the front this afternoon while the higher resolution models are
indicating much more isolated rainfall along the front. The
global models may be suffering from poor resolution spreading rain
out over a broad area the the hi-res models may be handling the
situation better. The NBM ensemble guidance agrees and has lowered
PoPs in the Permian Basin with better chances farther south near
the Trans Pecos and Big Bend where orographics enhances lift. The
decreasing wide spread rain threat also diminishes the flood and
severe weather threat and do not anticipate any watches at this
time. However there is still the potential for isolated flooding
and brief severe weather so remain alert.

High pressure behind the cold front slowly builds south and
settles over the area overnight. Temperatures tonight drop into
the 60s and only get into the 80s tomorrow afternoon which is
about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year, continuing a
very pleasant start to summer. Rain chances tomorrow will be
exclusively in the Big Bend before ending tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Upper level high pressure builds east Tuesday into Thursday. The NBM
responds accordingly, increasing highs on Tuesday to the 90s which
is normal for this time of year while eliminating rain chances.
There is some uncertainty though in the temperature forecast for
Wednesday and Thursday. The NBM soars highs well over 100 degrees on
Wednesday despite relatively low 500mb heights of 587dam. The reason
is increasing northwesterly flow pushing a dryline east into the
basin advecting hot and dry air behind it. There is no doubt that
temps will be higher Wednesday, and breaking 100 degrees is
reasonable, but highs may be a few degrees below NBM guidance.

Thursday will be very hot again for much of the area, but a Great
Lakes trough will send another cold front south reaching
southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin on Thursday.
Temperatures behind the front will be cooler so how far south the
front reaches before peak heating will be critical for the MaxT
forecast. For now will drop highs north of I-20 and leave them alone
for Thursday. Friday will be much cooler than Wed/Thu and Saturday
is even warmer as surface high pressure moves east and southerly
flow returns.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Scattered showers are ongoing over portions of SE NM as a cold
front is creeping its way into our region. Additional shower/storm
activity is expected to develop south and eastward as the front
advances through the day. Winds should also become northeasterly
with the front, sustained between 10-15kts. Given the scattered
nature of storm development, PROB30s have been included at most
sites. Periods of MVFR CIGs and VIS shall accompany
showers/storms. Expect amendments as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  83  66  94 /  30  30   0   0
Carlsbad                 65  85  66  96 /  40  20   0   0
Dryden                   71  87  70  92 /  70  50   0  10
Fort Stockton            67  85  67  95 /  70  40   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           64  80  64  88 /  40  30   0  10
Hobbs                    61  82  63  93 /  30  20  10   0
Marfa                    59  83  57  89 /  40  50   0  30
Midland Intl Airport     65  83  67  93 /  40  30   0   0
Odessa                   65  83  67  93 /  40  30   0   0
Wink                     65  85  67  96 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...95