Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
151 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Hot temperatures return across the area today and Thursday. The
  hottest temperatures (highs between 104-108, locally nearing
  110) will be along the Rio Grande and in the Pecos River Valley.

- Temperatures cool down a touch this weekend before a cold front
  brings even cooler conditions early next week.

- Near daily rain chances are forecast for western portions of our
  area through the end of the week. By early next week, rain
  chances become low to medium areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough over western portions of
the CONUS and ridging across the northeast. Meanwhile, zonal flow
aloft and 500mb heights around 590 decimeters maintain hot
temperatures. With that said, highs in the upper 90s and above the
century mark are to be commonplace this afternoon and Thursday.
Many spots along the Pecos River Valley and the Rio Grande can
expect to see highs top out between 104 and 108 degrees, with some
spots along the border (including the Big Bend) seeing
temperatures approach 110 degrees. While temperatures don't quite
meet Heat Advisory criteria, we cannot stress enough the
importance of drinking plenty of fluids (water and electrolyte
drinks) and taking frequent breaks under shade or inside a
building with air conditioning. This is especially for those who
work outside or spend a lot of time outdoors.

The other side of the weather story today and tomorrow are the
chances of isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorms. Upslope
flow and weak forcing along the dryline yield low (10-30%) chances
of showers/storms across the higher terrain through the western
Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. By tomorrow, chances
(20-40%) mainly reside in and around the Davis Mountains as weak
upslope flow persists. A few storms may become strong, capable of
producing gusty winds, small hail, and localized flash flooding
with the heaviest rainfall (though the overall severe and flash
flood threat is low). Farther to the east, winds become breezy
(15-20 mph sustained) in response to surface troughing across
eastern portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Lows
tonight and tomorrow night remain in the low-to-mid 70s for most.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Low level flow becomes slightly more southeasterly on Friday
providing better access to cooler gulf air with this pattern
continuing into the weekend. Therefore temperatures should cool
slightly on Friday, getting closer to normal for this time of year
with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s for most areas, low 100s
in the river valleys. Temps remain seasonably hot Saturday but the
pattern becomes more uncertain on Sunday.

Models depict a large trough moving into the upper Midwest pushing
a cold front into West Texas and eastern New Mexico on Sunday.
How far south this front makes it will greatly determine the highs
and rain chances for Sunday afternoon. The current NBM is trying
to have it's cake and eat it too; showing hot temperatures like
the front fails to arrive, while increasing rain chances like the
front does arrive. The more likely solution may be the front
makes it into the area if not on it's own then with an assist from
outflow from convection in the TX Panhandle. Even if it doesn't
quite make it this far south the likely increase in cloud cover
should cool temps down a couple of degrees so the greatest
uncertainty lies in the temperature forecast. High pressure behind
the front builds south Monday and Tuesday providing a return of
below normal temperatures and continuing what has been a mild
start to the summer so far. The best rain chances are closer to
the front and push into the Big Bend by Tuesday. An upper ridge
then builds into the Great Plains by late in the week bringing
hotter and drier conditions to the CWA.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Southerly
to south/southeasterly winds persist for most, with gusts ranging
between 20-25 knots this afternoon and evening. A couple of showers
and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across the
Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau. However, confidence in coverage is
lacking. Have thus included PROB30s for TS at FST, PEQ, and INK from
19Z-01Z to account for this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73 100  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73 106  72  97 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                   74  99  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            72 104  72  95 /  30  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           72  96  70  88 /  10   0   0  30
Hobbs                    69 103  68  93 /  20   0  10  10
Marfa                    63  96  62  91 /  30  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport     72  99  73  94 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   72 100  72  94 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     73 104  73  96 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...55

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
246 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

TXZ075-274-277-278-102015-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
246 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL PECOS...NORTHERN
BREWSTER...SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES AND EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES
THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northeast of Camp Mitre Peak, or 15 miles east of Fort Davis.
This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10359 3065 10375 3096 10369 3072 10318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 202DEG 4KT 3066 10364

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
258 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

TXZ274-102030-
Reeves County Plains TX-
258 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL REEVES AND EASTERN
CULBERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles northwest of Toyah, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Reeves
and eastern Culberson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 10406 3163 10405 3163 10378 3132 10384
      3148 10407
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 280DEG 15KT 3153 10399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
309 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

TXZ274-278-102045-
Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
309 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 309 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Balmorhea, or 18 miles south of Toyah, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Verhalen.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 197 and 207.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3095 10382 3102 10393 3128 10384 3114 10354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 216DEG 13KT 3105 10383

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11

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