Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
132 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- There is a marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe thunderstorms
  from the Permian Basin to the Big Bend this afternoon and
  evening. Strong and gusty winds are the main threat but there
  may be a few storms with large hail as well.

- Highs today reach the upper 90s to low 100s, which could cause
  heat stress for those doing outdoor activities. Widespread highs
  in the mid-to-upper 90s stick around Monday as well.

- Cooler and wetter weather returns Tuesday and remains through
  the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows a negatively-tilted upper trough
over northeast Wyoming, and continuing to eject NNE towards Canada.
An upper ridge is present over the central CONUS, leaving West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft.  Thicknesses
will peak today, resulting in perhaps the warmest day this forecast
as highs plateau some 7-9 F above climatology.  To the southwest, a
shortwave moving through Sonora will cross the river this afternoon,
bringing a chance of convection through mainly West Texas this
afternoon/early evening.  While deep-lyr shear is rather tepid,
forecast soundings do show a dry subcloud layer and dcapes in excess
of 1000 J/kg, suggesting damaging wind gusts will be possible.  In
addition, mid-lvl lapse rates of 7-9 C/km will also pose a large
hail threat.

This activity should diminish after sundown.  Skies will scatter out
overnight, but the LLJ will keep the boundary layer mixed, and
overnight minimums should be similar to this morning's, if not a
skosh warmer.

Monday, the upper ridge develops east into the MS Valley, and local
thicknesses decrease a bit as a result.  This should shave a couple
of degrees off afternoon, highs, but it'll still be warm.  Afternoon
convection will again be possible, mainly west of the Pecos, but
storms look more isolated in nature, and not as strong as today.

Monday night, convection is forecast to diminish shortly after
sundown.  The LLJ will advect abundant Gulf moisture into the area,
yielding overnight lows a couple of degrees warmer than what's
expect tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Tuesday marks the beginning of another pattern change that brings
cooler and wetter weather to southeast New Mexico and west Texas. An
upper-level trough develops out west and slowly makes it way towards
our area through the remainder of the week. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage increases across westernmost portions of our area beginning
Tuesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday, the trough begins to
dig into Baja California and move towards northern Mexico. As this
occurs, rain chances increase areawide. Widespread rain chances at
or above 50% continue through at least the end of the work week. By
that time, the trough begins to move across portions of our area and
eject off to the northeast. As a result, rain chances start to
decrease over the weekend (more so in the 10-30% range) and become
more confined to easternmost parts of the area and in the higher
terrain. Throughout this week, rich moisture will set up across the
region. Model guidance indicates precipitable water values will be
anywhere between 1.0-1.5 inches areawide, which is above the 90th
percentile for this time of year (nearing daily record territory on
some days). As a result, flash flooding is expected to be the
biggest threat this week, particularly for urban and low-lying
areas. While a couple of storms may become strong to severe, dense
cloud cover and relatively weak wind shear will be limiting factors
for that concern. The dense cloud cover will also keep temperatures
below normal for early June. While highs Tuesday manage to stay in
the upper 80s and low-to-mid 90s (near normal), temperatures in the
upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s can be expected the rest of the week.
By the weekend, highs begin to tick back up closer to normal again
as the trough makes its departure.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in areas of
direct convection, which will affect KFST and, to a lesser extent,
KINK/KPEQ. Cu bases this afternoon will range from 7-13 kft AGL.
Forecast sounding redevelop cu near the end of the forecast period
invof KHOB, w/bases ~ 4.5 kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  97  70  93 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 66  99  68  93 /  10  20  20  40
Dryden                   71  96  72  93 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            68  97  69  93 /  20  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           66  89  66  84 /  10  20  20  50
Hobbs                    64  96  65  90 /  10  20  20  20
Marfa                    56  92  57  89 /  10  30  20  60
Midland Intl Airport     68  96  70  91 /  30   0  10  10
Odessa                   69  96  70  91 /  20   0  10  10
Wink                     68  98  70  93 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99