Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- A storm system raises concerns for strong winds for western
  portions of the area and the potential for strong to severe
  storms over our easternmost counties this afternoon and evening.

- Near-Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today, along
  with Elevated to Near-Critical conditions Thursday for western
  portions of the area.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return once again Friday
  afternoon and into Saturday, mainly for the eastern Permian
  Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. A few storms may become strong to
  severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The upper level shortwave trough is currently entering the western
US. The base of this feature is progged to swing over New Mexico by
this afternoon. At the surface, a frontal boundary lies over the
Texas Panhandle while a dryline extends from near the TX/NM border
down to just east of the Big Bend. The frontal boundary lifts
northward later today, but the dryline serves as a focal point for
shower/storm development as a lee trough deepens ahead of the
approaching upper disturbance. By this afternoon, the dryline is
expected be oriented near the north central/ northeastern Permian
Basin, extending southwestward to slightly east of the Big Bend.
Sufficient lift, instability, and shear ahead of the dryline and
approaching trough provide an environment conducive for a couple of
storms to become strong to severe late this afternoon and evening.
The greatest potential for severe storm development will be over our
easternmost counties. Any severe storms will be capable of producing
damaging winds and large hail. Low (10-30%) rain chances are
forecast over SE NM, the Permian Basin, and the Lower Tran Pecos
this afternoon. Best (~30%) chances lie over the eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. This evening, rain chances increase to
range from 10-50% across the region, increasing with eastward
extent. CAMs show isolated storms eventually consolidating into a
line near our eastern counties this evening, then shifting eastward
through the overnight hours.

Aside from rain chances, this system brings breezy to strong
west/southwest winds to our region. The strongest winds are expected
over the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains and eastern Culberson County,
where a High Wind Warning is in effect from midday through late this
evening. Meanwhile, the SE NM plains, western Culberson, and Loving
Counties are under a Wind Advisory. Elevated winds and dry
conditions west of the dryline have prompted a Rangeland Fire Danger
Statement over most of the western half of our region this
afternoon and evening.

This system departs by Thursday morning, but southwest winds remain
breezy as another lee trough takes shape ahead of our next storm
system set to arrive Friday. More details on this particular system
in the Long term discussion. Otherwise, temperatures this afternoon
are forecast to reach the 80s to low 90s, then bottom out mainly in
the 50s tonight. Highs Thursday warm into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Southerly winds bring moisture back into the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans-Pecos Thursday night and Friday morning. Meanwhile,
an upper-level system begins to make its way across the northern and
central Plains. Guidance still indicates west Texas and southeast
New Mexico will be on the southern end of the trough. Nevertheless,
pulses in the flow aloft will move over our area Friday. As the
dryline sharpens Friday afternoon over the Permian Basin, these
pulses are expected to interact with moisture pooled in the eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos, yielding shower and
thunderstorm development. Similar to Wednesday, the best shower and
thunderstorm coverage looks to be just to our east, but 20-50%
chances are maintained for eastern portions of the forecast area.
While instability did trend down slightly from previous forecast
runs, model soundings still indicate CAPE values in the 1000-1500
J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 30-35 kts. Thus, whatever storms do
develop east of the dryline would have the potential of becoming
strong to severe, posing mainly a large hail and damaging wind
threat.

Friday night into Saturday morning, a front pushes south into our
area. This pushes rain chances farther south through the day
Saturday and ushers in much cooler temperatures across the region.
Highs through the weekend and into early next week mainly top out in
the mid-to-upper 60s and low 70s (with 50s in the higher terrain).
Shower and thunderstorm chances (mainly in the 20-50% range) persist
for southernmost portions of the area through Sunday afternoon.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail. This afternoon, westerly and
southwesterly winds increase, becoming gusty. The strongest winds
are expected at HOB and CNM, where a Wind Advisory is in effect
this afternoon through this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

ERCs remain near or above the 75th percentile for much of the area,
particularly for locations west of the Pecos River and in southeast
New Mexico. Min RHs are still forecast to remain in the 15-20% range
today for westernmost portions of the area (higher to the east).
However, sustained winds generally in the 25-35 mph range are
expected over these westernmost portions of the region (higher winds
are expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains). These winds,
along with the dry fuels and potential for gusty/erratic winds with
any thunderstorms that develop, yield Near-Critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon and evening. Because of the borderline
RHs, we have elected to replace the previously-issued Fire Weather
Watch with a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement. This RFD encompasses
the same locations as the watch (southeast New Mexico, Upper Trans-
Pecos, Guadalupe/Delaware and Davis Mountains, and the Presidio
Valley). Thursday, winds generally decrease, but critical min RHs
return to the region. The best overlap of breezy winds and critical
min RHs will be over southeast New Mexico and in/near the Guadalupe
Mountains. As a result, an RFD may be necessary Thursday afternoon
and evening for these locations as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  56  87  61 /  30  40   0   0
Carlsbad                 86  53  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   92  62  88  64 /  20  50   0   0
Fort Stockton            91  59  88  61 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           75  52  75  55 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    85  49  84  52 /  10  20   0   0
Marfa                    83  47  80  46 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     89  57  86  62 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                   88  57  85  62 /  20  30   0   0
Wink                     88  54  87  57 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 11
     PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM CDT this evening
     for Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for
     Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...95