Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

407 
WGUS74 KMAF 122358
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
658 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

TXC043-130130-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0095.000000T0000Z-260613T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brewster TX-
658 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY...

At 658 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Flash flooding may continue due to runoff.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Alpine, Alpine-Casparis Municipal Airport, and US Highway 67 in
  northern Brewster County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 10380 3041 10380 3054 10362 3042 10346
      3035 10355 3029 10380

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Greening

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
229 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Isolated to scattered storm chances exist this afternoon and
  tomorrow, mainly across the higher elevations.

- Cold front approaches the region on Sunday bringing higher rain
  chances through Monday. Will be monitoring for heavy rainfall
  leading to flash flooding.

- The hottest temperatures of the season so far are possible by
  the end of next week with many locations experiencing their
  first 100 degree day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

There is more low level moisture and instability today than
yesterday, which is shown on satellite with extensive cloud cover.
Unfortunately models show a mid level cap preventing showers from
developing in the Permian Basin. Once again today, rain will be
confined to the higher elevations west of the Pecos River where
orographic lift will help break the cap. A few storms could become
marginally severe and storms moving slowly could produce flash
flooding. The added clouds may not produce rain, but we should see
temperatures several degrees cooler than yesterday with highs
this afternoon only reaching the lower to mid 90s. Less moisture
is expected tomorrow allowing temperatures to inch back up though
still within the range expected for this time of year. Mountains
convection will also be less tomorrow than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A large upper trough moves into the upper Midwest pushing a cold
front into the area on Sunday and Monday. The NBM has been
steadily trending lower with temperatures the past several days
showing an increasing confidence that Sunday will be cooler. The
cold front may not be the source of the cooler air as surface
progs show the front near the northern basin by peak heating. More
likely is extensive cloud cover and increasing showers would lead
to a cooler day on Sunday. The highest rain chances are Sunday
night into early Monday from southeastern New Mexico to the
Permian Basin along and behind the cold front as it moves through.
Decent rain amounts (0.25-0.75") are possible northeast of the
Pecos River. The threat for flash flooding may be reduced by
modest rainfall rates, meaning rainfall totals that could produce
flash flooding in a heavy downpour will be able to drain better by
occurring over several hours. However the flood threat still
exists and will continue to monitor for the potential of a Flood
Watch. Monday afternoon the focus for rainfall shifts south and
west of the Pecos River as the front continues its slow
progression through the CWA. Northeast winds behind the front
favor orographic uplift and higher rainfall rates. This enhanced
lift combined with terrain channeling could create an additional
flash flood threat.

Rain comes to an end as the front exits south and an upper ridge
begins building over New Mexico and West Texas. Temperatures remain
mild for this time of year on Tuesday before heating up
significantly on Wednesday. Increasing 500mb heights indicating
greater subsidence as well as westerly mid level flow could have
many locations seeing their first 100 degree day of the year. Those
susceptible to heat will want to be alert for late next week.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Ceilings have lifted above 3000ft across all terminals and are
expected to prevail through the period. Southeasterly winds
increase this afternoon where occasional gusts up to 25-30 kts may
occur. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated across
portions of far west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon
and evening. Opted to include TS/-TSRA TEMPOs for PEQ and CNM.
Confidence still remains low for FST, INK, and HOB terminals,
further amendments may be necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  96  72  88 /   0   0  10  30
Carlsbad                 70 100  70  90 /  50  10  10  70
Dryden                   73  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            71  98  71  95 /  10  10  10  40
Guadalupe Pass           67  91  69  84 /  30  20  10  60
Hobbs                    68  97  67  85 /  10   0  20  70
Marfa                    60  89  61  90 /  50  20  10  70
Midland Intl Airport     72  95  72  89 /   0   0  10  40
Odessa                   72  95  72  89 /   0   0  10  40
Wink                     72  99  72  92 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
240 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

TXZ276-277-122015-
Marfa Plateau TX-Davis Mountains TX-
240 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 240 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Plateau, or 24 miles southeast of Van Horn, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Jeff Davis
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 10432 3075 10419 3068 10451 3082 10462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 240DEG 12KT 3083 10451

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
454 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

TXZ277-278-122230-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-Davis Mountains TX-
454 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER AND
EASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 454 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alpine. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alpine and Alpine-Casparis Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3031 10356 3038 10369 3058 10364 3044 10337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 206DEG 1KT 3042 10359

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLG