Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

977 
WGUS74 KMAF 060241
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
941 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

TXC383-060415-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0085.000000T0000Z-260606T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Reagan TX-
941 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN REAGAN COUNTY...

At 941 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding may be ongoing
due to runoff from rainfall.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Big Lake, Reagan County Airport, US Highway 67, and Best.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10175 3136 10175 3136 10127 3108 10127

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

55

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Heavy rainfall in showers/storms today and tomorrow will pose
  the risk for flash flooding in low-lying, sloped, and poor
  drainage regions and make roadways impassable in some spots.

- Much warmer weather by late weekend continuing into next week,
  with hazardous heat possible along the Rio Grande.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The unsettled weather persists from the end of the week into the
early weekend. The mid to upper disturbance over Baja CA will
continue to tighten into an upper low over northern MX today and
develop northeast. The lift and deep moisture convergence aloft
ahead of the upper low interacting with frictional convergence
from lee troughing at the surface over central parts of the
forecast area will result in 1 hr PoPs 25% to 45% developing from
the Marfa Plateau into southeast Permian Basin down to Terrell
County this evening into tonight, and 3 hr PoPs 35% to 55%
surrounded by 3 hr PoPs 25% to 35% from the Guadalupes into SE NM
plains. PWATs remain 2 standard deviations above normal and
ranging from at least 1.00" to 1.20" through the early weekend, so
any showers/storms that develop will continue to be efficient
rain producers, dropping at least a few tenths of an inch and up
to 0.50" to 1.00" where heavier and/or more training storms occur.
This will again pose flash flooding concerns for regions with
soils that have been saturated by previous days' rainfall, as well
as the usual low-lying, sloped, and poor drainage regions. CAPE
500-1000 J/kg, DCAPE up to 1000 J/kg, low RH in the lower
troposphere, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates with the
freezing layer beneath layer of maximum vertical velocity aloft
suggest stronger convective cores capable of small hail and strong
winds at the surface. However, west/southwest effective bulk
shear remaining weak (<25 knot) will limit organization and
longevity of stronger updrafts, and SPC does not have our area
outlooked in a region for severe weather. Highs today stay in the
80s F, 70s F higher elevations for most regions, while humid,
upslope southeast winds maintain dew point temperatures in the mid
50s to mid 60s F east of western higher terrain. Low-level lapse
rates are forecast to increase to 7-8 C/km while mid-level lapse
rates remain in the 6-7 C/km range this evening, and SRH may
briefly increase above 80 m2/s2. This suggests a landspout cannot
be ruled out today, especially near elevated terrain. However, the
primary risk will remain heavy rain within weak (<15 knot)
steering flow in the low to mid-levels, and severe convective
winds at the surface should be minimized by higher cloud bases
owing to inverted-V soundings. 3hr PoPs of 25% to 45% persist
overnight for the northern and eastern Permian Basin as high-res
CAMs and ensembles depict clusters of showers/storms over those
regions tonight. Of note, ensembles are more aggressive with a
messy storm mode northeast of the Marfa Plateau today and a more
clustered storm mode over the SE NM plains and northern Permian
Basin into eastern Permian Basin tonight. Lows fall into the upper
50s to mid 60s F once more as the humid air limits overnight
cooling.

Tomorrow, the upper low and accompanying lift and moisture
convergence develop farther off to the northeast, placing only the
easternmost Stockton Plateau and easternmost Permian Basin east
of the Midland-Odessa metro in a region of 3 hr PoPs 35% to 55%,
with a steep cutoff to the west and southwest. Ensembles are in
better agreement with 3 hr PoPs regarding development of a linear
storm mode across the eastern Permian Basin later in the day.
Rainfall amounts of 0.25" to 0.50" and higher over the eastern
Stockton Plateau into easternmost Permian Basin are indicated,
with ponding of water and flash flooding possible in usual regions
prone to flash flooding. This will include roadways. Remember, if
you think you cannot cross water, trust your instinct. Turn
around, don't drown. SPC has Terrell County into eastern Permian
Basin in a MRGL risk tomorrow, mainly due to enhanced vertical
shear for organization/persistence of storms on the
south/southeast side of the upper low. However, the bulk of the
strongest storms should remain to the east of the forecast area,
even as large hail and locally strong winds cannot be ruled out,
along with a landspout near favorable storm/terrain boundaries
given adequate SRH in the 0-3km layer. Clearing skies as mid to
upper ridging builds in behind the upper low will allow highs to
rise into the mid to upper 80s F, 90s F along the Pecos River
valley and Rio Grande basin, while remaining in the 70s F for
higher elevations. Lows tomorrow night fall to similar values as
tonight, if not a few degrees warmer over southern and
southeasternmost regions of the forecast area, as the humid air
only entrenches itself more over the southeasternmost regions of
the forecast area. This humid air is not going away anytime soon.
Read the Long Term Discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Much warmer high temperatures and drier weather with near zero
rain chances the rest of the weekend into early next weekend: but
remaining humid over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell
County. That will be the story until the middle of next week.
Highs Sunday quickly rise back into the lower to mid 90s F, upper
90s to lower 100s F along the Pecos River valley and Presidio
Valley, and 105F-110F for the Big Bend. While dew point
temperatures west of the dryline decrease as westerly winds west
of a diffuse dryline redevelop along and west of western higher
terrain and advect dew point temperatures in the 40s F back into
the region, 15 to 20 mph southerly winds maintain dew point
temperatures in the mid 50s to upper 60s F to the east, keeping a
humid airmass in place despite the near zero rain chances. With
hotter daytime temperatures, lows Sunday night struggle to fall
below 65F everywhere north and west of the Rio Grande basin into
Terrell County except for the Marfa Plateau and northern Lea
County, and struggle to fall below the the mid 70s F from the
Presidio Valley into the Big Bend. Mid to upper ridging and
accompanying large scale subsidence strengthens Monday, allowing
the zone of 100s F temperatures to expand across the SE NM plains
and Upper Trans Pecos, and 105F-110F temperatures to expand into
the Presidio Valley from the Big Bend. Dew point temperatures over
eastern parts of the area will remain similar to Sunday. All of
this will combine to generate hazardous heat from the Presidio
Valley into Big Bend, where heat advisories may be needed. Lows
stay similar to Sunday night.

A mid to upper wave over the Pacific NW deeps into the northern
Rockies beginning Tuesday, allowing disturbances to once again
clip the region as ridging breaks down. This will allow for
slightly cooler and more humid weather with still very warm highs
(in the 90s F, lower 100F Eddy County Plains and Upper Trans Pecos
as well as Presidio Valley into Big Bend) to return. Low 15% to
25% rain chances develop, mainly over the Marfa Plateau. This
pattern continues each afternoon/evening into the end of the week
as heating of elevated terrain and mountain/valley breezes
interact with lee troughing and disturbances aloft that provide
lift and moisture convergence. Timing of disturbances, setup of
synoptic and mesoscale features, and uncertainty regarding
storm/terrain interactions mean that exact details regarding
showers/storms remain unclear at this point. Highs will remain in
the 90s F for most until the end of the week, when hot
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s F and above return. Lows stay
in the mid 60s to mid 70s F, and each afternoon through
overnight, 15 to 25 mph southeast winds northeast of the Marfa
Plateau, Guadalupes, Upper Trans Pecos, and Marfa Plateau are
expected in a LLJ to the east of the troughing/dryline. So as the
central and eastern part of the area maintains a summer-like hot
and humid feel to the air, it will also maintain a late spring-
like wind pattern as we head into the middle of June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Scattered TS continue across the region affecting several
terminals. This trend will continue through the evening with a
gradual decrease overnight. Gusty, erratic outflows are likely in
and around these storms. Expect a general south wind around 10
kts outside TS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  85  66  95 /  60  40  10   0
Carlsbad                 63  90  65 100 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                   67  90  69  97 /  30  20  10   0
Fort Stockton            63  89  67  99 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           60  82  64  89 /  30   0   0   0
Hobbs                    61  85  62  97 /  40  10   0   0
Marfa                    52  85  55  93 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     64  85  66  94 /  50  20  10   0
Odessa                   64  85  66  95 /  50  20   0   0
Wink                     63  88  66  99 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
558 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

NMZ028-TXZ273-052330-
Eddy County Plains NM-Eastern Culberson County TX-
558 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN EDDY...NORTHWESTERN
REEVES AND NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT/530 PM
MDT/...

At 558 PM CDT/458 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 11 miles south of Malaga, or 25 miles south of Carlsbad.
This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Eddy,
northwestern Reeves and northeastern Culberson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3223 10415 3214 10385 3200 10397 3200 10402
      3197 10402 3196 10403 3203 10420
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 205DEG 4KT 3206 10408

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
518 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

NMZ029-052345-
Northern Lea County NM-
518 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LEA COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM MDT...

At 518 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Tatum, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Caprock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 10371 3346 10330 3308 10335 3306 10376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 014DEG 16KT 3332 10341

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
720 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

TXZ082-060045-
Terrell TX-
720 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TERRELL COUNTY
THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 719 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 17 miles southwest of
Sheffield to 8 miles west of Terrell County Gas Plant to 13 miles
north of Dryden. Movement was east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Terrell County Gas Plant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10176 3009 10197 3021 10227 3039 10210
      3057 10208 3059 10177 3033 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 281DEG 10KT 3049 10201 3036 10199 3024 10211

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
724 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

TXZ082-060100-
Terrell TX-
724 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN TERRELL COUNTY
THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Sanderson, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Terrell County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2999 10240 3020 10237 3016 10212 2997 10217
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 280DEG 5KT 3006 10232

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

NMZ028-034-060100-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-
633 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL EDDY AND
SOUTHWESTERN LEA COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM MDT...

At 633 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles east of Malaga, or 30 miles east of Carlsbad, moving east at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Eddy
and southwestern Lea Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 10382 3244 10382 3248 10356 3216 10354
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 280DEG 5KT 3233 10371

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
705 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

NMZ028-033-060130-
Eddy County Plains NM-Central Lea County NM-
705 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EDDY AND WEST
CENTRAL LEA COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM MDT...

At 705 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maljamar, or 30 miles west of Lovington, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Maljamar, Lea County Zip Franklin Memorial Airport, and Loco Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10376 3267 10351 3268 10406 3296 10410
      3297 10400
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 334DEG 8KT 3285 10386

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLG