Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

379 
WGUS74 KMAF 211605
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1105 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

TXC335-211815-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-260521T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mitchell TX-
1105 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY...

At 1105 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Westbrook.

Although the heaviest rainfall has shifted east and northeast,
flooding is still possible near and along low-lying road crossings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 10117 3242 10111 3241 10106 3237 10097
      3232 10096 3227 10099 3217 10104 3216 10112
      3221 10117 3231 10117 3236 10118 3237 10118
      3237 10117

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

95

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
634 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- More showers and storms are expected this afternoon and
  evening. A storm or two may become strong across far southeast
  New Mexico, northern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos.
  Localized flash flooding, damaging winds, and large hail will be
  the main threats.

- Daily afternoon/evening storm chances through next week, with
  locally heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Current satellite and latest RAP analysis shows an embedded
shortwave trough moving across portions of southwest Texas. This
has allowed for a few showers and storms to linger throughout the
evening into overnight hours. Expect some early morning showers
and a couple rumbles of thunder as they push east and northeast
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. For today, the
dryline will set up in far southeast New Mexico extending into the
Big Bend region. Coincidentally, a stalled boundary currently in
the southern half of the region will lift north of the area by the
late morning hours. Guidance has more shortwave impulses moving
over the region once again. Given this setup, additional isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop early in the
afternoon and progress eastward through the evening hours. The
highest chance (20- 40%) for showers and storms will be over the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos during this timeframe. A storm
or two may become strong across far southeast New Mexico, the
northern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos as modest mid-level
lapse rates and instability brings a damaging wind and large hail
threat. The main threat to consider will be flash flooding due to
saturated soils from yesterday's rainfall along with high
Precipitable Water (PWAT) values, signaling heavy rainfall to
occur. Temperatures are anticipated to be much warmer than
yesterday climbing into the mid 70s and 80s.

Tonight, a similar pattern is in store as embedded shortwaves
move across the region which may keep a couple of lingering
showers and storms around in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos. Lows are forecast to range from the 50s to low 60s.
Friday, the dryline is expected to be positioned across eastern
portions of the area. This will keep storm activity isolated in
coverage and confined over the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern
Permian Basin Friday afternoon. A similar pattern looks to stick
around heading into the weekend. See the long-term discussion for
more details.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

The long term features weak mid to upper ridging transitioning to
mid-level closed troughing into much of next week that maintains
moderate near normal temperatures for mid to late May. The
weakness in ridging this weekend and cooler air aloft accompanying
the closed low next week will allow for passing mid to upper air
disturbances focusing lift and moisture in alignment with near
surface boundaries to produce 20% to 45% rain chances across parts
of the area each afternoon/evening. Highs will generally range
from the mid 80s to lower 90s F, upper 90s F Rio Grande basins,
and triple digits for the Big Bend, while lows largely settle into
the 50s higher elevations into northern SE NM plains and
northwest Permian Basin, and 60s F elsewhere apart from upper 60s
to lower 70s F along the Rio Grande. The dryline will oscillate
over western parts of the area, but generally we can expect humid
air over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County, moderately
dry air over much of the SE NM plains, rest of the Permian Basin,
into the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau into the Rio
Grande, with driest (lowest dew point temperatures) over western
higher terrain of W TX and SE NM. Most regions can also expect to
see light, southeasterly humid upslope flow. There is the
potential for fire starts from lightning over the western higher
terrain, but no significant severe convective weather is expected
at this time. Daily afternoon/evening showers/storms may allow
regions east of the western higher terrain to pick up at least a
few tenths of an inch, and up to an 1" or more in heavier
showers/storms over the course of next week (55% to 75% chance).
However, due to spotty nature of diurnal convection forced mainly
by subtle disturbances aloft interacting with mesoscale boundaries
and topography at the surface, rainfall amounts remain highly
uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

MVFR/IFR ceilings persist through the morning hours at most
terminals. These ceilings are expected to lift by late morning.
Opted to include a TEMPO for BR over HOB given latest
observation trends nearby. Uncertainty remains in MVFR CIGs
developing across PEQ and FST sites, however, further amendments
may be needed. Increasing confidence in isolated to scattered
convection beginning early this afternoon lasting through the
early evening hours. Winds will generally be light and
southeasterly/southerly through much of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               79  60  91  63 /  30  30  10  20
Carlsbad                 89  59  93  60 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   83  63  90  66 /  30  20  10  10
Fort Stockton            86  62  92  64 /  40  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           80  58  82  60 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    82  55  91  57 /  30  20   0   0
Marfa                    81  50  84  53 /  20  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     81  61  91  64 /  30  20  10  10
Odessa                   82  61  91  64 /  30  20   0  10
Wink                     86  59  93  62 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11