Flash Flood Warning 180, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Near record high temperatures are expected today. Temperatures
  remain above normal, but decrease very gradually this weekend
  and into next week.

- Isolated to scattered (10-40% chance) showers/storms are
  possible each day, mainly west of the Pecos.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The heat continues going into this weekend for west Texas and
southeast New Mexico as upper-level ridging builds back into the
Great Plains. However, today looks like the hottest day of the
forecast period, and temperatures cool very gradually going into the
Long Term. Highs once again top out near or just above 100 degrees
across the area today, with low to mid 90s in and around the higher
terrain. Lows tonight bottom out in the low-to-mid 70s for most.
Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening.
While the best chances (20-40%) will be south and west of the Pecos
River (especially in the higher terrain), low chances (10-20%) are
maintained elsewhere thanks to lingering moisture and lift on the
western edge of Edouard's remnants.

Even though ridging continues to build westward Saturday, relatively
lower heights over our area yield temperatures a degree or two
cooler than today's. Highs in the mid-to-upper 90s will be
commonplace, with 100 degree temperatures becoming more confined to
the river valleys. Lows Saturday night end up similar to tonight's.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again
tomorrow afternoon and evening, but this time will remain mainly
south and west of the Pecos, with a few sneaking into the western
Permian Basin (20-40% chances for these locations). For both today
and tomorrow, storms that develop may produce heavy rainfall, strong
winds, and frequent lightning.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

By early next week, a trough moving across northern portions of the
CONUS helps push the ridge back to the east. As a result, we will
see temperatures decrease a couple of degrees more around this
timeframe, though they will remain about 4-8 degrees above normal
for this time of year. Highs through at least the middle of next
week end up in the mid-to-upper 90s for most locations, with upper
80s and low 90s in/around the higher terrain. Low rain chances
(10-30%) stay pretty close to the higher terrain through at least
the middle of next week as well. As far as the latter portion of
the forecast goes, there remains some inconsistency in the models
as to where the ridge will be positioned, how strong it will be,
and therefore what our rain chances and temperatures will look
like going into next weekend. At this time, the NBM maintains very
low PoPs for portions of the area (10-20%). Meanwhile, both the
GFS and Euro have started to depict the ridge building back
towards the Plains by the end of the week. As a result,
temperatures have trended a bit higher across the area, such that
most locations are now forecast to see highs in the mid-to-upper
90s throughout the week.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Isolated to scattered storms have developed across much of the
region this afternoon. Highest confidence in storms impacting
terminals will be at MAF and FST early this evening. Brief MVFR
VIS and erratic, gusty winds are expected with any storm. Outflow
boundaries will also bring brief gusty and variable winds through
this evening. By 03Z, a low-level jet develops across portions of
the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos increasing southeasterly
winds through 06Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light
southerly/southeasterly will prevail through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74 101  74  99 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73 100  73  99 /  20  20  20   0
Dryden                   75 100  74  98 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73  99  72  96 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           69  89  69  89 /  30  30  10   0
Hobbs                    72  99  71  97 /  20  20  20   0
Marfa                    63  90  61  89 /  30  40  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     75  99  74  97 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                   75  99  75  97 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                     76 101  75  98 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...11

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

TXZ279-281-282-042330-
Central Brewster County TX-Presidio Valley TX-
Lower Brewster County TX-
544 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN BREWSTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 544 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Terlingua, or 11 miles northeast of Lajitas, moving southwest at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lajitas, Terlingua, Study Butte, and Barton Warnock Environmental
Educational Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2923 10376 2922 10378 2925 10377 2927 10379
      2926 10380 2927 10381 2928 10392 2930 10394
      2939 10381 2939 10379 2940 10379 2947 10370
      2940 10356 2918 10370 2918 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 044DEG 14KT 2940 10368

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
659 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

TXZ075-279-050030-
Pecos TX-Central Brewster County TX-
659 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTH
CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 25
miles northwest of Sanderson, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Pecos
and north central Brewster Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3046 10276 3038 10262 3005 10277 3026 10307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 046DEG 10KT 3033 10277

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11