Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

309 
WGUS74 KMAF 191754
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1254 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

TXC335-191804-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-260519T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mitchell TX-
1254 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL
COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded, though there may
still be some ponding on roads. Flooding is no longer expected to
pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 10080 3222 10081 3223 10066 3209 10067

$$

95

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

- Summer-like heat expected through today, mainly for Big Bend and
  along the Rio Grande where highs are expected to reach into the
  low to mid 100s.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible today for areas
  generally east and south of Midland/Odessa. Main threats will
  include large hail, damaging winds, and lightning.

- Strong to severe storms are expected once again on Wednesday
  where large hail, damaging winds will be threats as well as
  localized flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A cold front is currently making its way southward across the Texas
Panhandle and will make to the region within the next few to several
hours. There remains some uncertainty with just how far south this
front will make it into the area. Should it stall out over the
northern Permian Basin, there will be a better chance at showers and
storms developing east of the dryline that has setup just to the
east of the city of Pecos. Should the front make it further south
before stalling, storms may be confined to the Lower Trans Pecos or
portions of Big Bend. No matter where storms develop, they will be
capable of being strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards in addition to brief heavy rainfall and
lightning. Forecast highs will also be uncertain as they will depend
on where the front ends up. Areas south of the front will once again
reach into the 90s. Behind the front, much cooler air will move in
where highs may not reach 80F.

By tonight, the front washes out and the dryline establishes itself
once again over the western half of the CWA. Low level moisture is
pulled westward with the dryline and an upper level disturbance
makes its way in from the west. In addition to the upper level
support, forecast PWATs move to between 1-1.3" east of the
dryline. Climatologically, this would rank near or above the 90th
percentile for May 20th. This spring setup is favorable for strong
to severe storms as well as heavy rainfall that may lead to
localized flash flooding. Rain amounts will be tough to pin down
as it will be dependent on how convection develops over the course
of the day on Wednesday. A cooler airmass and rain keep it cooler
with highs in the 70s and 80s for Wednesday.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Heading into Wednesday evening, daytime convection begins to decay
and move to the east out of the region. A lull in activity will be
seen through Thursday morning. With the upper level disturbance
moving off to the east, rain chances take a hit and will be low (10-
40%) over the course of the day. However, convection from Wednesday
will have leftover boundaries and the dryline to aide in some
activity developing and becoming strong to severe. Medium to long
range guidance keeps this pattern in the area through this coming
weekend with each day having a chance for showers and storms to
develop. Temperatures see a slight warm up with most locations
reaching into the mid to upper 80s, though this would be a few
degrees below normal for late May. Overnight lows during this time
would be near normal in the upper 50s to low 60s for most.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Cold frontal passage will occur over the next couple of hours and
shift winds out of the north with speeds sustained in the teens
and gusts between 20-25kts. Brief BLDU may be seen with FROPA, but
visibility should quickly improve. TSRA possible at both FST/MAF
this afternoon, but more confident in convection near FST compared
to MAF. VFR remains otherwise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  60  77  60 /  40  20  20  80
Carlsbad                 94  62  84  59 /   0  10  30  40
Dryden                   96  68  87  64 /  30  10  30  90
Fort Stockton            97  65  87  62 /  10  10  20  70
Guadalupe Pass           85  60  80  59 /   0   0  30  40
Hobbs                    91  56  75  55 /   0  10  40  60
Marfa                    92  53  88  52 /   0   0  40  30
Midland Intl Airport     94  61  78  61 /  10  10  20  70
Odessa                   94  62  79  61 /  10  10  30  70
Wink                     95  63  83  60 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
954 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

TXZ053-191530-
Mitchell TX-
954 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY THROUGH
1030 AM CDT...

At 954 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles southwest of Lake
Colorado City State Park to near Silver. Movement was north at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Champion Creek Reservoir, Lake Colorado City State Park, and Lake
Colorado City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 10095 3211 10118 3213 10118 3233 10113
      3237 10066 3209 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 1454Z 200DEG 8KT 3222 10107 3212 10070

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1029 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

TXZ053-191600-
Mitchell TX-
1029 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY
THROUGH 1100 AM CDT...

At 1028 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Silver, or 19 miles southeast of Colorado City, moving northeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Mitchell County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 10086 3239 10066 3209 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 210DEG 20KT 3214 10071

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

21